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Monday, February 27, 2012

Wintry Mess Wednesday & Thursday

Here are some of my thoughts regarding Wednesday-Thursday’s series of storms.

I am not worried about the morning commute on Wednesday. But Wednesday evening’s drive could be a mess! Clouds will lower and thicken during the morning on Wednesday. The timing has slowed down a little from yesterday. Snow will likely develop during the afternoon and it could be moderate to heavy for some during the drive home from work. As the evening progresses, a southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will cause warm air to invade. This will change snow over to sleet, freezing rain and rain. The GFS changes everyone to rain after 7 PM. The NAM (which deals better with cold air damming) keeps a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain through the evening. Both solutions show 1”-3” or 2”-4” inches on the front side of the storm before the changeover. Either way I would avoid driving on Wednesday night!

Then we have to watch Thursday for another possible changeover to snow. This will be triggered by a second disturbance. But right now the models are trending towards a less developed and disorganized secondary storm. So even if we do get more snow it may just be another coating to an inch with a light wintry mix scattered throughout the day.

North of the Massachusetts pike the threat for big snow accumulations is greater where less mixing is expected. Obviously a small change in track and timing can alter the forecast. But everyone always asks me what I’m thinking. And these are my current thoughts! I’ll keep you posted!


Anonymous said...

thanks for the new updates it really helps plan

Dave Traskos said...

Thank you Rachel!

Justin said...

That was my thinking 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow....and a greater chance of about 4+ for Mass and points North....keep up the good Rachel