Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Sneaky Warm Layer!

Rain/snow breaks out 6am - 9 am. Roads won't be too bad right off the bat and first flakes will not stick for most.
By lunchtime it's snowing and sleeting for most of the state, some heavy. Notice SE CT may stay rain.
A sneaky warm layer south of I-84 makes this forecast tricky. How much rain/sleet mixes in is a wild card.
The storm moves out 10 pm - 1 am. Slick spots early Thanksgiving. Breezy and chilly.


Forecast Discussion:

The easiest part of this forecast is the extremes.  Far southeastern Connecticut will get little or no accumulation tomorrow.  But the northwest hills will hit the jackpot at 6”-10” of accumulation.  The hard part lies in between...What about the rest of the state?  There is a sneaky warm layer of air that has the potential to cut down on snow accumulation in favor of sleet.  Figuring out how much sleet mixes in and how far north that occurs will be the key to forecasting snow totals.   Rain will also mix in at times for southern Connecticut too.  So I have to admit, this is a tough forecast!


Timing:

Rain & snow develops between 6-9 AM. The peak of the storm will hit from lunchtime through the early evening. The storm winds down 10pm – 1am (Thursday morning).  By the time the sun comes up on Thanksgiving, it will be partly cloudy and chilly.

Accumulations:


A slushy coating in far southeast Connecticut, 1”-3” for the shoreline, northern New London County and southern New Haven & Middlesex counties. 3”-6” for most of central Connecticut and 6”-10” in the northwest hills.

Bottom Line:

Thanksgiving Eve will be a mixed bag with rain, snow and sleet.  Any snow that falls will be heavy and wet and hard to move.  Some power outages are possible in the hills. Conversely, urban flooding is possible for the shoreline with periods of rain, some heavy. Travel will not be impossible.  But it will be hampered by the storm (and any additional travel traffic).

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Cloudy, rain/snow developing around daybreak. Low: mid to upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Rain and snow start 5-9 am. Mix changes to snow and sleet inland, rain and slush for the shoreline. High temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a snow shower. Breezy and cool.  High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, dry and chilly. High temperatures in the mid 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a snow shower before daybreak. Partly cloudy, not as cool as recent days. High temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday: A mix of clouds and sun, milder. High temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Wednesday Worries: A Bread, Milk and TURKEY storm! ;)

Weather Headlines
  • Timing: 7-10 AM Wednesday morning – just after midnight Thursday morning
  • The worst is Wednesday late afternoon and Wednesday evening
  • 6"+ north of I-84, less farther south and east

Forecast Discussion:

With highs soaring through the 60s you would never guess we have a winter storm on the way.  And lucky us…just in time for the busiest travel day of the year.

If you need to do any traveling or errands before Thanksgiving, try to get it done on Tuesday. We will squeeze in one more mild day with high temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
This storm will be born in the Gulf of Mexico before riding northeast bringing, snow, rain or a mix for many east coast cities and airport hubs.

But what can we expect here in Connecticut? A mix of rain, snow and sleet will develop between 7-10 AM (location dependant). Then as some colder air is wrapped into the storm, precipitation will slowly change over to all snow from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. Since areas north of I-84 remain mostly snow, that’s where we’re expecting the highest accumulations with 6”-10” possible. We’re forecasting 3”-6” south of I-84.  The valleys will get less than the higher elevations. Then along the shoreline we’re only expecting a slushy 1”-3” where the most mixing will take place. The storm ends a little after midnight early Thursday morning.

The National Weather Service is forecasting higher accumulations than we are.  There are a few reasons I remain less enthusiastic about lots of snow.  The first one is milder surface temperatures.  1) There is no blocking high to the north to lock in the cold. An easterly wind off the milder November water temperature doesn't help either! 2) The best moisture and lift do not coincide with the snow growth zone (the area in the atmosphere where those big flakes usually form). This can lead to snow to liquid ratios under the average 10:1. 3) This is a quick hitter and we waste precipitation in the form of sleet or rain at the onset.

Obviously, this forecast is not a “lock” yet.  We are walking a fine line between all snow and a mix of sleet and rain.  But so far I feel confident about this forecast.  No matter how much snow accumulates, Wednesday is going to be an icky day to travel!

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mild! Low: 47-52.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, mild. High temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday: Rain and/or mix developing 7-10 AM. Changing to wet snow during the afternoon/evening. High temperatures in the middle 30s.

Thursday: Slick roads early. Breezy and cool with a mix of clouds and sun.  High temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.

Friday: Partly cloudy and chilly! High temperatures in the middle 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, remaining chilly. High temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Weekend Warm Up

Forecast Discussion:

Saturday will offer a little relief from the bitter cold.  Temperatures will approach 40 degrees which is still well below average for this time of year.  A warming trend will get underway on Sunday. A few showers will touch off late Saturday night with the arrival of the milder air.  For most of the state this will not be an issue. But for some towns in the northwest hills, temps could drop close to freezing creating a few slippery spots.

Sunday is dry and milder with high temperatures around 50 degrees!  Rain arrives Sunday night into Monday morning, some heavy at times. Rain tapers to scattered showers by Monday afternoon.  Temps will soar into the low 60s! Cooler air arrives by the middle of next week. 

The same front that will bring back the cold on Wednesday will also be a point of concern as a wave of low pressure develops along it.   Depending on how close to the coast the storm develops, Connecticut could be looking at rain/snow.  It’s too soon to say for sure. But we’ll keep an extra close eye on it, especially as Wednesday is one of the biggest travel days of the year!

Concerns For Wednesday...Still 5 days away!
Forecast Details:

Tonight: Cold! Low: 15-23.

Tomorrow: Sunshine mixing with clouds late in the day. High: upper 30s and lower 40s. Southwest wind at 5-15 mph.

Tomorrow night: Chance for a shower or two.  There could be a couple of slippery spots in the northwest hills where temps will be around freezing. Low: 30-35.

Sunday: Milder with a mix of clouds and sunshine. High: Upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday: Mild! Morning rain tapering to afternoon showers. High: upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, remaining mild for this time of year. High: lower to middle 50s.

Wednesday: Watching a storm offshore closely. Cloudy with the chance for a period of rain/snow showers. Still a lot of uncertainty. High: Low 40s.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Cold Returns Tomorrow

Weather Headlines:
  • Reinforcing shot of Cold air Friday
  • Cool, breezy Next Two Days
  • Chance For Slick Spots Saturday Night
  • Warm Up Sunday-Monday
Tonight: Clear, cold. Low: 20-25.

Tomorrow: Colder, breezy with lots of sunshine. High: mid to upper 30s. Northwest wind at 10-25 mph.

Saturday: Sunshine mixing with clouds late in the day. High: lower 40s inland, middle 40s for the shoreline. Southwest wind at 5-15 mph.

Sunday: Chance for drizzle or a touch of freezing drizzle before daybreak. Otherwise, milder with a mix of clouds and sunshine. High: upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, mild with scattered showers. High: upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, remaining mild for this time of year. High: lower to middle 50s.
                

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Record Cold!

As of 9 PM Tuesday Night
It’s so cold, we’re making Alaksa look mild! Yes, really.  It’s milder in Alaska right now than it is here in Connecticut.

Record breaking cold is possible in Bridgeport tonight. The current record stands at 24 degrees for Bridgeport, last set in 1986.  We’re forecasting an overnight low of 20 degrees.  Windsor Locks is less likely to break the record.  But it’s close as 12 degrees, set in 1924.  We’re forecasting a low of 15.

But the talk of record cold doesn’t stop there.  Windsor Locks could set a record for the minimum high temperature on Wednesday. The current record is 33 degrees, last set in 1955.  The record minimum low temperature in Bridgeport is 35 degrees, last set in 2008. Tomorrow will be sunny, breezy and cold.

Now that we got the talk of records out of the way…A warm front will bring a boost in clouds late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.  There is also a slight chance for a flurry or a sprinkle overnight.  But any precipitation is light and gone before sunrise. Thursday will not be as cold as recent days with high temps up around 40 degrees.  Since when did 40 degrees sound milder??

Friday and Saturday turn cold again with highs in the 40s.  A real legit warming trend will get underway Sunday into Monday when temperatures could eventually top 60 degrees! Heat wave!

Forecast Details:
Tonight: Clear, near record cold. Low: 12-20.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, breezy and cool with clouds increasing late in the day and at night. High: upper 20s to mid 30s. Chance for flurries/sprinkles late at night.

Thursday: Morning clouds break for sunshine. Breezy, not as cold. High: upper 30s to lower 40s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, windy and chilly.  High: upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny, less wind than recent days.  Still chilly!  High: upper 30s to lower 40s.


Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy and milder with the chance for a few showers. High: around 50 degrees.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Rain Ends & Winter Cold Takes Over

I feel like Mondays are perfect days for cloudy, dreary, rainy weather (it kind of goes with everyone’s mood).  The rain is moving out for Tuesday and getting replaced by some harsh cold.

Rain will taper off 7 pm – 10pm with some clearing late. Most roads should have a chance to dry before temps drop below freezing.  But any standing areas of water (poor drainage areas) could turn icy tonight inland as temps drop down around the freezing point.

There is a small chance a lake effect snow shower/flurries could hold together for Tuesday morning (best chance in the NW hills).  Otherwise, clouds will break for sunshine on Tuesday with falling temperatures.  The high will occur early in the day.  By late afternoon, temperatures will be back down around the freezing point. A westerly breeze will keep wind chills in the teens and twenties throughout  the day so bundle up!

The rest of the week remains cold but dry. Milder temps are possible by the end of the weekend.

Tonight: Rain tapering off 9-midnight. Becoming  breezy with some late clearing. A few slippery 
spots possible. Low: 30-37.

Tomorrow: Clouds break for sunshine, windy and cold. West wind at 15-30 mph. High: mid to upper 30s early, temps falling through the afternoon.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, cold. West wind 5 to 15 mph. High: lower 30s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, not as cold as recent days. High: upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

Friday: Mostly sunny, cool. High: upper 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, cool. High: around 40 degrees.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

MIA

Sorry I have been MIA  this week. I have been training on a new weather system and working a split shift, leaving me exhausted! I'll pick up here by Friday.  Thanks for your patience. I think you're going to love the stuff I have been working on.  To be revealed in a couple of months...just in time for me to go on maternity leave (go figure)!

For now, check me out on facebook and twitter for quick weather updates!

Friday, November 7, 2014

Come Say Hi!

I'll be at the Ski, Sun + Travel Expo this weekend from around 10:30 am - 11:30 am. Please come say hi! I'll be there with Joe Furey, Dan Amarante, Audrey Kutchen and many other FOX friends.

It's a great event too! The last two years I purchased a discounted Express Pass to Killington and it was worth every penny.  Hope to see you there!

Cooler But Pleasant Weekend



Even though temperatures this weekend will be cooler, with more sunshine and less wind it will feel warmer than Friday.  There is a chance for a shower Saturday night into Sunday morning.  A warming trend gets underway next week with high temperatures peaking in the 60s for Tuesday and/or Wednesday.  That warm up will precede the coldest air we have seen all season long!  Not only will temps plummet (starting Thursday) but it looks like the cold will stick around for a while...perhaps all the way into Thanksgiving.  If this pattern keeps up, it won't be long until we get some snow...just sayin'.

Tonight: Slow clearing, winds diminish. COLD!  Low: 25-33.

Saturday: Cool despite plenty of sunshine. Less wind, a pleasant feel. High:middle 40s to around 50 degrees.

Sunday: Chance for an early shower. Otherwise partly cloudy and a bit milder. High: lower 50s inland, middle 50s for the shoreline.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High: lower to middle 50s.

Tuesday: Mild! Increasing clouds, chance for a shower late in the day or at night. High: mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday: Chance for showers, mainly in the morning. Then some clearing. High: 50s to around 60 degrees. Turning colder at night.


Thursday, November 6, 2014

Rain Departs As The Wind Picks Up

After a cloudy, cool, raw and rainy day the weather will slowly dry off overnight with lows dropping into the 40s.  Tomorrow will be windy with a mix of sun and clouds.  Gusts could reach up to 30 mph. The weekend starts off bright but chilly with temperatures in the 40s. Winter is coming!  Arctic air takes over by the end of next week.

Tonight
: Lingering showers and drizzle slowly tapering off. Low: 40s.

Tomorrow: Windy with a mix of sun and clouds. Northwest wind at 10-20 mph with higher gusts up to 30 mph. High: Near 50 inland, middle 50s for the shore.

Saturday: Cool despite plenty of sunshine. Less wind, out of the south at 5-10 mph. High: middle to upper 40s.

Sunday: Chance for an early morning sprinkle. Becoming mostly sunny. High: lower to middle 50s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant. High: Lower to middle 50s.


Tuesday: Lots of sunshine with a few clouds increasing late in the day. High: Upper 40s to lower 50s.

GFS high temps by Thursday of next week!