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Thursday, March 31, 2011

Spring Snowstorm: A Coating to 8"

Some of you will grab umbrellas tomorrow morning, while others grab snow shovels! Rain and snow is already breaking out across the state. Tonight most areas will change over to wet snow which will have the chance to accumulate, especially on non-paved surfaces. But as warmer air moves into the upper levels of the atmosphere, precipitation will change back over to rain. The exception will be areas northwest of Hartford where colder air will be locked in place. That’s why we are expecting more snow to accumulate in northern Litchfield, Hartford and even Tolland Counties.

As the storm strengthens, winds will pick up, gusting to 30 mph at times. Winds will blow out of the northeast (hence the name nor’easter). The storm will pass just over or east of Cape Cod Friday morning. Many areas will still deal with leftover rain or snow showers on their way to work/school. Although most roads will be wet for the commute, there will be some slick spots, especially in the higher elevations. The heaviest precipitation will move out during the morning, leaving a few lingering rain or snow showers during the afternoon. Clouds will diminish tomorrow night with a partly sunny, dry and breezy weekend on the way.


Snowfall accumulations will range from a slushy coating to an inch along the shore and in southeastern Connecticut. Northern Litchfield, Hartford and Tolland Counties will get 4”-8” with the rest of the state in the 1”-4” range. The higher end of the range will be reserved for the higher elevations and for cities and towns north of I-84.

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Nor'Easter Thursday Night-Friday



Clouds will thicken up tonight with a few sprinkles and flurries possible. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. A storm tracking south of Connecticut will provide mostly cloudy skies on Thursday with a few scattered rain or snow showers. The morning commute tomorrow will be fine.


Late this afternoon/tonight showers will become more numerous and steady as a nor’easter sets it sights on Connecticut. Rain will mix in and change over to snow for a while tonight before changing back to heavy wind-driven rain leading into Friday morning. Some areas northwest of Hartford could stay as wet snow most of the storm. The morning commute will be a soaker (slippery in hills) with the whole storm coming to an end Friday afternoon and evening. April snow storms are tricky! The ground is warm from the 50 degree temperatures we experienced today. So snow will melt much easier on pavement. Also, snow accumulations Thursday night could get washed away on Friday as most of the state changes back to rain.


If the storm passes over Cape Cod, the state will see anywhere from a coating to 10” of snow statewide with some areas in central Massachusetts hitting the jackpot with a foot of snow. With this track the shoreline gets a slushy coating of snow with 1”-4” for the majority of Connecticut. Far northern Hartford County and northwestern Litchfield County will get the higher amounts with 4”-10” possible.


A shift in track to the east would mean that more cold air, more snow mixing in and higher accumulations. A shift to the west means that more warm air and lower accumulations. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding Thursday night – Friday so please make sure you check back for updates!

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Wednesday "Pick of the Week", Friday Nor'easter?

Wednesday will be the pick of the week! Persistent northwesterly winds will finally relax. Without the breeze, the air will feel really comfortable with temperatures topping out near 50 degrees. After a sunny start to the day, some high clouds will increase in the afternoon as a storm slides south of Connecticut. Wednesday night and Thursday will be mostly cloudy with a few rain/snow showers possible at times. But a bigger storm could bring rain and/or accumulating wet snow Thursday night into Friday.

One camp of computer models brings the storm out to sea. Other group calls for a major nor’easter with gusty winds and moderate to heavy snow accumulations. If the rain/snow line bisects CT we could be talking about a storm with anywhere from 2”-12” of snow. I’ll keep you posted!

My forecast from the News at 10 Tuesday night:

Monday, March 28, 2011

One more breezy day. Wednesday WINNER!

Cool, breezy and dry weather continues Tuesday. Winds will blow out of the west up to 25 mph. Although there could be a few more clouds than recent days, the sky will remain mostly sunny. Wednesday looks like the nicest day of the week with calm winds (for the first time in a while) and temperatures getting up near 50 degrees. Clouds will start to increase on Thursday as a coastal storm develops. A mix of rain and wet snow is possible Friday/Saturday if the storm tracks just south of Connecticut.

Why has it been so windy lately? Watch my forecast from Monday night to find out!
 

Friday, March 25, 2011

Sunny But Cold Weekend

A big area of high pressure in Canada will block any incoming storms, forcing rain and snow south of Connecticut. But the dry conditions come with a chilly price tag. Temperatures will remain about ten degrees below average all weekend. Saturday northwesterly winds will blow from 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will start in the teens and stay in the thirties during the afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Sunday will be sunny, breezy and cool. The next chance for rain/snow is next Wednesday.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Snowfall Totals: A Coating to 1"-2"

Yesterday at 4PM, 10 and 11 we lowered expected snowfall totals to a coating-2". It would've been nice if we nailed it down a couple of days earlier, but we got it just in time to tell people that they shouldn't worry too much about snow accumulations.

The whole system started trending further south. As a meteorologist, you have to be willing to change your forecast if it's not going as expected. But it's harder than it sounds. You don't want to freak out just because one model run is different and make a knee jerk reaction. In fact, some of my colleagues kept their higher snowfall totals right through some of the evening newscasts. I'm NOT saying I'm a better forecaster, we all have our moments. I had some storms this winter that were more or less snow than forecasted. Nobody gets them all right.

I just want people to know how hard this job is. Some meteorologists have been getting hate mail/tweets/facebook posts all day. Luckily I have been spared this time around! Wow...I really just wanted to post some snow totals and you got a rant instead! Haha.

Here's a Map of Storm Totals: OR you can look at the list below!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php?event=stormTotal_12&element=snow&centeron=BOX

6:25 AM on 03/24/2011
BAKERSVILLE, CT
2.0 inches

7:00 AM on 03/24/2011
NORFOLK, CT
1.2 inches

6:00 AM on 03/24/2011
COLEBROOK LAKE, CT
1.0 inches

6:22 AM on 03/24/2011
NEW MILFORD, CT
1.0 inches

6:00 AM on 03/24/2011
THOMASTON DAM, CT
0.8 inches

6:30 AM on 03/24/2011
BARKHAMSTEAD, CT
0.5 inches

FAIRFIELD COUNTY:
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT: 2.5 "
SHELTON: 2.1 "
NEW CANAAN: 2.0"
NORWALK: 2.0 "
NEWTOWN: 1.2 "
GREENWICH: 1.0 "

NEW HAVEN COUNTY:
NORTH HAVEN: 1.3 "

NEW LONDON COUNTY:
STONINGTON: 2.0"

Sun Melts Spring Snow

Watch for slippery spots this morning as the storm that brought some snow last night moves out to sea. A few lingering snow showers/flurries are possible, mainly this morning. The storm will leave a coating to an inch or two on the ground early in the morning. Then partial clearing is expected with a mix of sun and clouds and gusty wind. The sun will quickly melt any snow that had a chance to stick! Friday looks dry with partly sunny skies and below average temperatures. For those of you looking for spring warmth here in Connecticut, you'll have to wait at least another week. Luckily sunshine and dry weather return for the weekend!

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Spring "Snow Storm" Update

Here we go again, just when you thought winter was over, more snow is on the way.

Snow has been on and off today with mostly cloudy skies and cooler than average temperatures. As expected, most of the snow that fell today melted on contact with the ground due to a strong March sun and above freezing temperatures. Tonight as temperatures drop below freezing, the snow will stick a bit easier, causing some slippery spots as we head into early tomorrow.

Tonight we continue to expect periods of snow and flurries. Heavier snow is possible briefly during the overnight hours. But the storm will be moving out quickly. By tomorrow morning, the storm will be centered just south of Long Island as it slowly pulls out to sea, the snow will taper off to some flurries during the late morning hours. By the time snow ends, snow accumulations will be around a coating to 2" for the state with higher amounts, up to 4” in the western hills of New Haven, Fairfield and southern Litchfield Counties.

Unfortunately, for those of you looking for spring here in Connecticut, you'll have to wait at least another week as temperatures are expected to average a good 10 degrees below normal through the weekend and into next week. At least we will sunshine and dry conditions just in time for the weekend!

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Snow Totals

Snow totals have to be adjusted up to 3"-7" for most of the state with lesser amounts along the immediate shoreline and southeastern CT 1"-3". BUT BUT BUT....Although that's how much snow will fall from the sky, less will accumulate! Much less! The air will not be too cold and the high March sun angle will help melt a lot during the day. Higher elevations will be affected first (with slick spots) because of cooler temperatures. Snow will stick a little bit during the day, but most snow accumulation will take place Wednesday night into Thursday after sun down.

Spring Snow!

Another storm is tracking out of the Rockies and will move south of Connecticut by tomorrow night into Thursday with more snow. 1"-3" of snow is expected across most of the state with higher amounts in the northern hills, with 3”-6” of snow expected. Most of the accumulation will be on non-paved surfaces.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken up tonight with snow overspreading the region from west to east from morning through lunchtime. Many areas will still be dry for the morning commute. Even when the snow begins, a lot will melt on the streets during the day with a higher March Sun angle and treated roads.

The steadiest snow will occur tomorrow night into Thursday morning making for a slippery commute, especially across the hill towns. The snow should taper off Thursday afternoon to a few lingering flurries.

High pressure will build back in for late in the week and into the weekend with plenty of sunshine, however temperatures will only average in the upper 30's to the low 40's and overnight lows only the chilly 20's.

Unfortunately, for those of you looking for a return to last Friday's 70 degrees weather; you will have to wait for a least two to possibly three weeks as our cold weather pattern will continue through the end of March, which may include more snow.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Near Record Warmth On Friday! Cooler This Weekend.

Temperatures will soar through the 60s on Friday with near record warmth! The record in Hartford is 70 degrees set back in 1999, the record in Bridgeport is 68 degrees, set back the same year.

Some clouds and patchy fog will start off the morning, with increasing sunshine throughout the day. A wind advisory is in effect until early this evening with gusts up to 40 or 50 mph! Winds will start blowing out of the southwest, then become northerly as a front moves through. The front lacks moisture so we don’t expect any rain. But cooler air will move in behind the front with temperatures returning to the 40s for this weekend. Although that will feel cooler, temperatures will be around average for this time of year!

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Wearing Green, Seeing Blue!

The luck of the Irish must be with us Thursday with fantastic weather in the forecast. High pressure nosing south of New England will chase away the clouds providing mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Friday will be even warmer! A disturbance will pass north of Connecticut early in the day. Friday will start off cloudy with a shower in spots. Then clouds will break apart with partial sun and unusual warmth. A cold front moving through late-day will bring a cooler air this weekend.

 

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Where's The Snow?

Two weeks ago, this is how much snow was on the ground.


Then after two rainstorms with temperatures in the 50s and lots of melting, this is how much snow is on the ground today. WOWZA!


All that snow melted and flowed into the rivers causing flooding last week. Luckily, rivers had a chance to go down before ANOTHER rainstorm moves in tomorrow. But this time around we don't have nearly as much rain on the way OR as much snow to melt. So we are not expecting as many flooding issues.

SUN EVERYWHERE, Except For CT

You know how in the cartoons a rain cloud follows the character around? Well that's how we are today. ALL DAY the satellite has looked like this with clouds over much of CT and sunshine everywhere else in New England with a pesky low level inversion. Basically, moisture has become stuck in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The sun is trying to break the clouds up but so far it's doing a poor job. Anyway, I apologize because these things happen in March and I botched the sky cover forecast for today. Definitely not the 9 I promised on the Rach-O-Meter! But at least we're dry for now. Rain tomorrow. Let's hope that forecast is more successful.


Monday, March 14, 2011

Nice Tomorrow, More Rain Wednesday

Five days left in winter 2011 and by the end of the week it will feel like spring with temperatures in the 50s and 60s! On Tuesday, high pressure will build overhead providing mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will be in the 40s statewide, right around average for this time of year. Clouds will increase at night with a storm approaching early Wednesday. Although some inland areas could see a brief wintry mix, most of the state will get rain on Wednesday. Luckily rivers had a chance to recede before the next rainstorm. Sunshine and milder air return just in time for St. Patrick’s Day.

St. Patrick's Day Parades: Beads Are GOLD

I love meeting people in Connecticut. I want people to know how much I think about them when I agonize over a temperature or snowfall forecast. I want people to know that I’m not a stuffy, egocentric weather anchor who likes to hear her own voice. And I want people to know that almost everyone on our news team is just like me in those regards.

But I’m not sure throwing beads into a crowd of people while waving my hand like Miss America is quite the way to accomplish those goals. Once the crowd sees the beads, no one sees the person who is holding them. In fact, I don’t think anyone even noticed that we were chucking Mardi Gras beads. Sure, one out of four were green, but we also found a few beads with illegal substances painted on them. But it’s ok, because I’m sure we got a great price on them.

Every member of the team scrambled to grab beads from our Sam’s Club sized bags and untangled the big clumps while walking by outreached hands. I barely had time to make eye contact or shake a hand. Once the beads ran out, I felt awkward. In my head, people were thinking “you guys think you’re good enough to JUST give out smiles and waves?” We all felt horrible, searching the cars for rouge beads under the gas pedal or a floor mat. One guy in the "happy" section of the parade by all the Irish bars threatened "no beads? I'm watching NBC30!"

Don’t get me wrong, I met a few amazing people that I am friends with on facebook: Mark Hornyak, Tom Emanuele, Dave Traskos and Kelly LaMesa.. You guys made the parade worthwhile! I already feel like I knew Dave and Kelly so well (just from talking about the weather and life on facebook) that I had to give them both hugs. I hope to meet more people in events like this in the future. I’ll keep you posted on the next big event. I’ll be sure to bring enough beads this time.

Friday, March 11, 2011

More Rain, Flooding Not As Bad

It has been a rough week for CT rivers with the 5th worst flooding on record for the Housatonic on Monday/Tuesday. Flood Warnings are still posted for almost every county in the state.

There is still minor flooding along a lot of rivers, but the flooding is minor-moderate this time and NOT major. We didn't have rainfall totals that were as impressive or as much snow to melt.
Western CT saw the highest rainfall totals with over 2" of rain in parts of Litchfield and Fairfield Counties. That's where we find the highest rivers.

There is moderate flooding (as of 6:30 PM Friday) for:
The Housatonic River at Gaylordsville

There is minor flooding for:
The Housatonic River at Stevenson Dam

Last Full Weekend Of Winter

The last full weekend of winter is looking dry and pleasant for both Saint Patrick’s Day parades! A disturbance will keep skies partly cloudy on Saturday with a westerly breeze. Temperatures will warm into the low 50s for many towns. A weak front will swing by Saturday night/early Sunday, triggering a spotty rain/snow shower north of CT. Don’t forget to “spring forward” one hour before bed Saturday night. Sunday will remain mild and pleasant with high pressure building into New England for the start of the work week.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Great Resource For River Flooding

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

You can click on locations along rivers to get the current level, the river forecast and historic crests. For example. Here is the image when you click on "Falls Village", a flood prone area along the Housatonic River.


The river crested at 11.57' on Tuesday night. Now it's getting close to flood stage. But the green line (forecast) shows moderate flooding returning on Saturday with the water flowing even higher than earlier this week.

Also on the site are historical crests. Tuesday was the 5th worst flooding on record. If we hit 13' or higher on Saturday, we could rise even higher on the list.

Historical Crests
(1) 19.00 ft on 01/01/1949
(2) 18.90 ft on 08/19/1955
(3) 16.80 ft on 09/23/1938
(4) 13.00 ft on 03/20/1936
(5) 11.14 ft on 04/18/2007

The Housatonic River is the most concerning for Saturday. The Connecticut River should not be as much of an issue with minor flooding along its banks.

The Farmington River at Simsbury could also experience minor flooding on Saturday.

Yeah...Rain Is Still Coming.

Steady rain and drizzle is overspreading the state tonight. Moderate to heavy rain is expected during the Friday morning commute. Rain on top of old snowpack and saturated ground will cause localized moderate to major flooding, mainly across the western areas. The Housatonic River will be especially vulnerable to flooding this time around. Flooding is not as much of a concern for the rest of the state with lower rainfall totals. The rain will taper off during Friday afternoon with a gradual drying trend throughout the weekend. Rainfall totals will range between ¾” in eastern Connecticut to 2” in far western Connecticut.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Dry Another Day! Rain Thursday...But How Much?

Wednesday will remain dry with high pressure hanging onto control. Sunshine will give way to increasing cloudiness as a storm approaches. A light wintry mix will break out in some inland areas early Thursday. But most of what falls from the sky will be rain. The heaviest rain will come down Thursday night into Friday morning. Another 1”-3” of rain is possible which could cause additional flooding of rivers and streams. Some of the models show the heaviest rain west of Connecticut. I certainly hope that’s the case. But most computer models show us getting another heavy rainstorm. Saturday looks dry, mild and pleasant with more clouds Sunday.

 

Monday, March 7, 2011

Dry For Two Days...More Rain Late-Week

While most rivers/streams slowly recede, the Connecticut River will crest today with additional minor flooding forecast. The next two days will be dry with sunshine, some high clouds and temperatures in the low 40s. High pressure moves over southern New England tomorrow keeping the weather quiet with clouds increasing late. Our next storm arrives Wednesday night into Thursday bringing a brief wintry mix changing to heavy rain. Flooding issues could redevelop with 1”-3” of new rain possible.

Check out some of these rainfall totals!
AVON: 4.35"
EAST HARTFORD: 4.06"
NORTH GRANBY: 3.85"
1 WNW WINDSOR LOCKS: 3.61"
SOUTHINGTON: 3.59"
CANTON: 3.58"
ENFIELD: 3.5"
BURLINGTON: 3.45
2 SW GRANBY: 3.39"
SIMSBURY: 3.19"
WETHERSFIELD: 3.02"
SOUTH WINDSOR: 3"
3 SE HARTFORD: 2.71"
MANCHESTER: 2.28"
DANBURY: 4.43"
3 SSE BROOKFIELD: 4.2"
SHELTON: 2.6"
NORWALK: 2.1"
BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT: 1.51"
HADDAM: 3.8"
DEEP RIVER: 3.42"
BETHANY: 2.95"
SOUTHBURY: 2.74"
MERIDEN: 2.56"
NORTH HAVEN: 2.02"
NEW HAVEN: 1.16"
TORRINGTON: 4.19"

Friday, March 4, 2011

Mild/Cloudy Saturday, Rain Developing Late Sunday.

A slow moving weather system will approach this weekend. Mild air is streaming in out ahead of the storm with temperatures getting close to 50 degrees both today (Saturday) and tomorrow. There could be a few showers around as a warm front moves in. But most of the day will be dry. Rain develops tomorrow afternoon, getting steady and heavy by Sunday night. Rain will pour into Monday morning for the commute back to work and school. 1”-3” of rain is possible with snow melting and localized flooding.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Dry, Cool Friday

After a very cold start Friday, temperatures will rebound into the mid and upper 30s. As high pressure moves offshore, some high and mid level clouds will develop. There could be a brief rain or snow shower Friday night as some milder air moves in. Saturday will be warmer (near 50) with mostly cloudy skies and a passing shower, but most of the day will be dry. Clouds and mild air will stick around on Sunday with rain developing, mainly during the afternoon. Rain, some heavy, will continue into Monday.

Thursday night's 10 PM weather report

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Quick Cold Blast

Break out the winter coat Thursday morning! An arctic front ushered in very cold air. Wind chills will be near or below zero. Winds will blowing out of the north 5-15 mph. High temperatures will stay in the 20s statewide. Friday will not be as cold with partly to mostly cloudy skies. This weekend looks milder with temperatures popping up close to 50 degrees. Although there could be a few showers on Saturday, most of the day will be dry. Sunday and Monday look wet with a long duration rainstorm. I am concerned with flooding during that timeframe. More updates on that as we get closer.

 

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Three Winters

There are three different definitions of winter.


Solar winter is the quarter of the year with the lowest sun angle and shortest days.

Meteorological winter is the coolest quarter of the year with the lowest average temperatures and the most snow and ice.

Astronomical winter is the most familiar to you! Astronomical winter has to do with the earth position in relation to the sun. It begins durin the winter solstice (when the sun is lowest in the sky) to the spring equinox (when the sun is directly over the equator).

So meteorological winter and solar winter are already over, that's 2/3. Not bad. 19 days to go and it will be spring on every calendar!

Milder Wednesday, Artic Cold Thursday

You will need winter gear on Thursday with COLD air on the way!

Sun will mix with clouds today as high pressure moves offshore. Temperatures are warming up a bit, climbing into the 40s with a southwest wind blowing 10-20 mph (gusts to 30 mph). An arctic front will pass through late today with limited moisture. There could be a sprinkle or wet snow shower, but most of us will stay dry with just an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures will be much colder tomorrow with sunny skies and temperatures in the 20s. Light snow accumulation is possible late Friday/Friday night, with a weekend warm up.