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Friday, March 30, 2012

A Touch Of Winter

Forecast looks on track for most of us to see a little snow/rain after midnight-Saturday morning! A slushy coating to an inch or two in spots. Higher elevations could get up to 3". Very little or nothing along the shore. Sleep in on Saturday morning and you'll be fine. Go ahead, use me as an excuse to be lazy tomorrow!

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Frost Tonight, Snow Saturday

Frost:
You send me pictures of your blooming bulbs and budding trees. They’re pretty. But tonight I worry for those early growers. Tonight skies will clear out and temperatures will drop close to or below the freezing point. Wait a minute…Why aren’t there frost advisories or freeze warnings? Because the National Weather Service only issues alerts during the growing season which begins on April 15th. Normally, that’s a pretty safe date. But this year’s early warmth has prompted plants to spring up earlier than usual. So if you want to protect those plants tonight, bring them inside or cover them with a light blanket.

Dry, Sunny Tomorrow:
The sun will be a welcome sight tomorrow. But don’t let the sunshine deceive you, temps will start in the upper 20s and 30s! Mid and high level clouds will increase in the afternoon as our next storm approaches.

Rain/Snow Saturday:
Low pressure moving through the Midwest will track over the Delmarva after midnight Friday bringing a mix of rain and snow. You may want to sleep in Saturday morning with the slushy mix. A small accumulation of an inch or two is possible. Saturday afternoon will calm down with a lingering shower or two. Any slush that does stick will melt quickly. And the recent warmth will help most of the snow melt when it hits the ground (no brainer…we were in the 80s last week).

I wish my confidence for the storm on Saturday was a little higher. But I don’t like the latest 18z NAM showing a colder, more robust solution with 2”-10” of snow. The NAM is the outlier. The Euro and GFS are in agreement with the forecast stated above. But it makes me nervous…especially because the NAM is supposed to be more accurate with better resolution than the other models within 48 hours.

Snow On Saturday?

I mentioned a couple of scenarios for Saturday on TV tonight.

The NAM has remained consistent, keeping snow in the forecast. The GFS is starting to hint at the same thing during the 00z run (instead of showing a complete miss). Hmmm...this could be interesting. But don't get too excited/nervous either way. This is the trickiest time of year for forecasting! The models could change completely by the time I wake up tomorrow morning. The trick is to look at trends. If the GFS continues to flip flop, the uncertainty will continue. But if the GFS starts to come into agreement with the NAM, we're getting a burst of snow early Saturday!

Monday, March 19, 2012

Breaking Records With Ease

The last day of winter felt more like summer. Did we skip a season? Record or near record warmth will continue through Thursday.

Windsor Locks set a new daily record high temperature of 79 degrees, breaking the old record of 73 which was set back in 2010. Bridgeport set a record of 68 degrees, breaking the old record of 67 which was set the same year. Winds blowing out of the south and over the long island sound kept inland areas milder than the immediate shoreline.

Tonight areas of fog and low clouds will develop with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 40s. While we sleep, spring will arrive at 1:14 AM Tuesday! The spring equinox marks the time when the sun’s rays are directly over the equator, splitting day and night into (almost) equal length.

Tomorrow a slight easterly component to the wind will keep temps a few degrees lower than today, although still incredibly mild for this time of year. Morning low clouds and fog will break for sun. High temperatures on the shore will climb into the low to mid 60s with lower and middle 70s inland.

Temperatures will approach 80 degrees on Wednesday (upper 60s shore) with clouds and fog breaking for sun. Thursday will be the warmest as temperatures skyrocket into the low 80s with a stronger southwest wind. Even the shoreline will heat up into the 70s.The dry air and breeze could elevate the risk of brush fires. Cooler temperatures will move in Friday and the weekend.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

The End Of Winter Feeling Like Spring!

This March will go down as one of the mildest on record with more spring warmth this week! Clouds and fog will develop this evening with temperatures dropping into the 40s.

Morning clouds and fog will give way to sunshine tomorrow as temperatures soar through the 60s and 70s. Low clouds and fog will redevelop Monday night.

A backdoor cold front will cause a slight cool down on Tuesday (for the first day of spring) with temps in the 60s inland and the 50s along the shoreline.

But we warm up again mid week with a strong high pressure system building in. Temperatures could approach 80 degrees on Thursday!

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Tomorrow Is The Worst Day Of The Week

After one more cool day, temperatures are going to skyrocket again this weekend into next week! In fact, it will feel more like summer for the first few days of spring.

Tomorrow will remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a cooler onshore wind keeping temperatures in the low 50s inland, 40s along the shore.

By Saturday, temps return to the 60s. And next week 70s are likely! This warm March pattern will continue for at least the next two weeks. That means people who suffer from allergies will continue to suffer months ahead of schedule! Joe Furey said mosquitoes are already buzzing around Glastonbury. But at least our heating bills are lower!

Monday, March 12, 2012

Record Warmth. Is This May or March??

Bridgeport set a new daily record high temperature of 63 degrees! This beats the previous record of 61 set back in 1973. 63 is the average high temperature on May 1st!

Windsor Locks also set a new daily record high temperature! The high temperature hit 74 degrees! This breaks the old daily record of 69 set in 1977. 74 is the average high temperature on May 23rd.

Joe Furey just called to tell me he was out killing mosquitoes today and his allergies are acting up. Allergies and pollen in March? Yikes!

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Helllllllllllllllo May!

If you thought today was nice, you’re in for a treat! Most of the week looks quiet, dry and mild!

Skies remain clear tonight with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Tomorrow will feel more like May with temperatures in the 60s to near 70 degrees and plenty of sunshine. As an added bonus, you can enjoy an extra hour of sunlight at night thanks to daylight saving time. Our spring fling continues Tuesday with another day in the 60s to near 70 degrees! A warm front could trigger a few showers under partly cloudy skies. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will turn slightly cooler with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Near Record Warmth!

A southwest wind and lots of sun propelled temps up near record levels today! The high in Windsor Locks was 68 degrees, one degree shy of the record 69 degrees set back in 1987.

Other High Temps:
Hartford: 66
Chester: 61
New Haven: 61
Bridgeport: 61
Danbury: 68
Groton: 57
Willimantic: 65

The highest winds in the state were recorded in Groton at 43 mph. Barnstable, MA recorded a wind gust of 57 mph with some wind damage reported.

Tomorrow will be 15-20 degrees cooler behind the cold front. But the cool down will not last long! Temps will soar back up into the 50s on Sunday and the 60s on Monday and Tuesday. Long range forecasts all point to a toasty March!

Sunday, March 4, 2012

This Week: Chilly Start, Mild Midweek

After a few early flurries clouds will decrease this evening. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s inland. Shoreline low temperatures will stay in the mid and upper 20s.

Although the work week will get off to a chilly start, a warm up is on the way midweek!

Monday will be chilly for early march with partly to mostly sunny skies and a northwest breeze at 10 to 25 mph. Monday will be even cooler with temperatures tumbling into the teens! Some of the northern hill towns could approach single digits. Tuesday will be a few degrees milder. But the real warmth gets here Wednesday and Thursday. A front could trigger some showers Thursday night bringing less mild air late week. Overall it looks like a quiet and mild weather pattern for the next 7 days.