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Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Breeze Goes On


It was scary last night! Well, I was scared.  My cats were unfazed by the howling winds.  My dog was sound asleep.  But I was up for two hours starting at 4 AM. Power outages topped 70,000 statewide with gusts well over 60 mph.

Damaging winds are over but blustery conditions remain in place both Friday and Saturday.  Partly cloudy skies will give way to a few flurries Friday afternoon as a weak disturbance moves by.  Saturday (Groundhog Day) is dry but chilly with high temperatures stuck in the twenties inland. Some light snow is possible on Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening.  Early snowfall estimates are for one to three inches.  The roads could be slippery for the drive home from Superbowl parties. But that's not stopping me.  This is my first Superbowl OFF FROM WORK since I graduated college!  And no....I didn't graduate last year. Ha.  I'm going out for wings, cheese dip and Superbowl commercials!  

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

My Hair Makes Me Look Good. Here's Proof.


Coldest Temps Tonight Into Tomorrow Morning

The wind chill is the temperature it “feels like” based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin.  If you cover your skin, you negate the wind chill factor entirely!  Bundling up is wise tonight into tomorrow morning.  Temperatures (not including the wind chill) will drop down between -5 and 7.

Tomorrow is sunny and chilly with highs once again stuck in the teens. Most of tomorrow looks dry too.  Then clouds will increase on Friday with light snow breaking out late in the day or at night. A glancing blow is most likely with the potential for a coating to 3” of fluffy snow. Snow could linger into early Saturday morning.  But the rest of the weekend is dry. Temperatures don’t return to the 30s until next week!

Tonight: Partly cloudy, frigid. Lows: -5 to 7.
Tomorrow: Bright and cold. High: 16-22.
Friday: Increasing clouds, light snow developing late-day or at night. High: Near 20.
Saturday: Snow ending early (7-8AM) then clearing. High: Low 20s
Sunday: Sunny. High: Mid 20s.
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Chance for a snow shower. High: Near 30.

Update on Friday's Potential Storm

Still not impressed with Friday's storm set up. It doesn't look like the northern and southern branches of the jet stream will phase. This results in a weaker storm tracking south of New Engand with any significant snow occuring well offshore. Some snow is still possible but you won't need a roof rake for this one! Onto the next...

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Sorry For The Headache

This is the European forecast model versus the GFS showing MSL Pressure (mean sea level pressure). Every circle is a line of constant pressure.  I showed this on air tonight and I think I caused headaches all across the state. The GFS is farther offshore (blue bullseye) with a few snow showers and little accumulation. The euro (pink bullseye) is a moderate snow storm. But both have trended south or east over the last run or two. If that trend continues, a direct hit is less likely. If the storm comes back farther east or north then model mayhem continues and a bigger hit is still a possibility. By noon-1 tomorrow I think we'll have a better handle on things. Sorry for the headache.

Coldest Air Of The Season

The deep freeze has arrived with the coldest air of the season in place tonight through Thursday.

Temperatures will drop into the single digits inland tonight, near ten degrees for the Connecticut shoreline. That’s cold enough!  But a gusty northwest breeze will make the air feel even colder.  Tonight into early tomorrow the wind chill will fall between -15 to 0 degrees!  The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Chill Advisory for northern Litchfield County until noon tomorrow for dangerously cold wind chills. Bundle up!

The afternoon will not provide much relief from the cold tomorrow with high temperatures stuck in the teens.  If dry air bothers you, keep the humidifiers cranking with sub zero dew points.  Our next chance for snow arrives Friday afternoon.  There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding this storm. Connecticut could get a direct hit with plowable snow or just a glancing blow and flurries.  Today all the computer models shifted the storm south.  If this trend continues, a glancing blow might become more likely.  But it’s too soon to tell.  We’ll have a better handle on this tomorrow as the storm enters the United States from the Pacific Northwest.

Tonight: COLD. Lows: 0-10.  Wind chill: -15 to 0.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, blustery and cold. High: 15-20.
Thursday: Sunny and cold. High: 17-22.
Friday: Snow developing in the afternoon.  Snow might linger into Saturday morning depending on the track! High: Mid 20s.

Monday, January 21, 2013

A Little Snow Tonight


As far as snow storms go, this one is pretty wimpy. Periods of light to occasionally moderate snow will continue overnight before tapering to flurries from midnight to 3 A.M.  Kids, do your homework!  This storm will produce a coating to 3” of snow. The highest amounts (around 3”) will be found in bands in parts of eastern Connecticut. The jackpot amounts will be along the east coast of Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine where some towns could pick up a foot of snow!

The wind will pick up tomorrow morning after the snow moves out.  Northwest winds could gust up to 30-40 mph with partly cloudy skies. Tomorrow is chilly.  But Wednesday is colder. High temps will get stuck in the teens inland with lows approaching zero. A bigger storm is possible heading into the end of the work week.  A storm developing in the Ohio valley on Friday will move south of New England Friday night into Saturday. This storm will be a quick hitter and COLD with all snow (no mixing this time).  Right now early estimates are for 3”-6”. But we still have a few days to adjust the forecast.

Tonight: Periods of light to occasionally moderate snow. Low: 16-22

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, windy and cold. High: 25-30.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, cold. High: 15-20.

Wednesday night: COLD! Lows: -5 to 5.

Thursday: Sunny. High: Low 20s

Friday: Snow breaks out around or just after the morning commute through Friday night. High: Upper 20s.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

COLD Week, Two Chances For Accumulating Snow

Our spring fling is over.  Temperatures soared into the 50s today!  But a strong cold front is bringing us back to reality.  Monday will be about 20 degrees cooler. In fact, the entire week is colder than average, setting the stage for some snow!

Tonight will be windy.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties with gusts up to 40 mph overnight.  Low temperatures will crash into the mid 20s inland, near 30 for the shore.

Clouds will increase during the day tomorrow as a coastal storm develops. Light snow breaks out toward evening. Most areas will end up with a coating to an inch or two by daybreak on Tuesday. Some isolated 3” amounts are possible in eastern Connecticut.  We have what’s called an inverted or NORLUN trough set up (getting technical).  In these scenarios, snow amounts can vary A LOT from town to town with more snow towards the east.  But I think we’ll be too far from the “jackpot” to see that kind of variation around here.  Massachusetts will get snowfall totals that vary from 1”-2” around Springfield with up to to 5” south of Boston. 
Tuesday will be partly cloudy and gusty as high winds mix down from the upper levels of the atmosphere. Wednesday is positively frigid with high temperatures in the teens and low temperatures approaching zero with sub zero readings in some of our typical cold spots. The cold continues on Thursday.
A bigger snow storm is possible to end the week on Friday.  Right now this storm looks to favor snow with 3”-6” or 4”-8” accumulation possible.  We’re still five days away. But this could be our next big one. 

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Cool, Mild....Then COLD Next Week

A fast moving storm will glide well to the south and east of Connecticut tonight.  But we might get grazed by a few snow showers.   The radar is deceiving.  It looks like snow is falling all over the state. So why isn’t it reaching the ground?  Dry air.  While there is snow falling from the clouds, the flakes evaporate before reaching the ground.  Meteorologists call this virga, one of my favorite weather words.  Over time, the layer of dry air will erode, allowing snow to fall all the way to the ground.  Areas south and east of Hartford could see a period of light snow or flurries tonight with a dusting possible.  Extreme southeastern Connecticut could get up to an inch (Stonington, Ledyard, Groton).  But I’m not impressed.

Sunshine returns tomorrow.  But the bright sunshine will also prove deceiving.  Temperatures will struggle through the 20s this afternoon.  But the cold air doesn’t last long.  A warm front on Saturday will bring milder temps in the low to mid 40s. Then a strong arctic front on Sunday will send temperatures crashing. Looking at the forecast for next week will make your teeth chatter with highs in the 20s (or colder) and overnight lows in the single digits. I see big cold in our near future but no big storms….yet.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Black Ice Tonight

Tomorrow morning’s commute will be infinitely easier than yesterday.  But drivers still need to beware of patchy black ice.  Clouds will block the sun from time to time on Thursday with lots of melting as temperatures approach the 40 degree mark. A coastal storm will graze Cape Cod and Rhode Island late Thursday night into Friday morning.  Most of the state will stay dry with the chance for a few snow showers in southeastern Connecticut. On Friday a fresh batch of arctic air arrives with highs in the 20s!  Temperatures rebound over the weekend before a FRIGID BLAST arrives next week.  Low temperatures Monday night could dip into the single digits!

Tonight: Lingering mix early, then some clearing. Low: 20s inland, low 30s shore

Tomorrow: Mix sun & clouds, chance snow shower. High: Near 40

Tomorrow night: Chance snow showers, mainly in southeastern Connecticut. Low: teens inland, low 20s shore

Friday: Clearing, colder. High: Mid 20s to low 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: Upper 30s to near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, chance snow shower. High: Upper 30s to near 40.

2"-5", Right Down To The Shoreline

This was a fast mover! The only part of this storm that impressed me was how quickly the shoreline was able to accumulate snow before a change to rain and sleet. The roads were bad this morning, as promised.  But they will continue to improve this afternoon. The only problem now is lingering freezing drizzle and black ice tonight. 
 




Tuesday, January 15, 2013

No Biggie, But Bad Timing.

After a spring tease yesterday with temperatures approaching 60 in some towns, winter has returned.  The storm approaching tonight and tomorrow isn’t a blockbuster.  But the timing will be terrible with the worst of the storm arriving during the morning commute!

The storm is moving out of the Mississippi valley along the same cold front that triggered the cool down yesterday. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 4 PM Wednesday for accumulating snow, ice and slippery roads.

Timing:
Snow will overspread the state tonight around or after midnight, coming down moderately to heavy at times.  Then snow will mix in and change over to sleet, freezing rain and rain from south to north during tomorrow morning.  Most of the snow is already over by 10 AM on Wednesday.  The entire event is winding down by mid afternoon. A little lingering drizzle is possible during the evening drive.

Accumulations:
2”-5” of snow will accumulate statewide.  The shoreline may end up seeing a little less with an inch or two followed by slush and rain.

Impacts:
Low visibility during the morning commute with snow covered, slippery roads.  School delays are likely.  But road conditions will improve quickly after 10 AM.  The evening commute will be fine. 

Looking Forward:
Behind the storm, an arctic front will move through on Thursday.  This will be followed by a cold blast of air with temperatures struggling through the 20s and low 30s by the end of the work week.  Even colder air arrives next week with high temperatures in the teens to near 20 degrees next Tuesday.  So the snow that accumulates tonight and tomorrow isn’t melting anytime soon!

Monday, January 14, 2013

Toasty Today! Wintry Tonight With Two Mini Storms.


Groton was one degree shy of the 60 degree mark today!  Everyone in the state soared into the mid to upper 50s with some sunshine.  But the mild air is marching out.  Winter returns tonight as temperatures plummet into the 20s with a gusty northwest wind.

Showers tonight will mix in with a few sleet pellets and snow flakes as a storm slides south of Connecticut. A lingering shower is possible early on Tuesday. The rest of the day is mostly cloudy and seasonably cool with highs near the 40 degree mark.  Tuesday night a bigger storm grazes the state.  But this one will be close enough to bring a steady batch of snow with some rain/sleet mixing in (mainly rain for the shore).  A fresh coating of snow is possible with 2"-4" across most of the state before a change to rain or sleet. Southern CT and the shoreline will see mixing first, which is why accumulations in these areas will be lower than the rest of the state.  Cold air follows late week.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 26-33. Chance brief rain/snow shower late.

Tomorrow: Chance early rain snow shower (southern CT).  Otherwise, Mostly cloudy. High: 39-43.

Tomorrow night: Snow developing, mixing with rain along the shoreline.  Light to moderate snow overnight.

Wednesday: Slippery AM commute. Snow mixing and changing to sleet and rain, ending late day. (See graphic for accumulations) High: Upper 30s.

Winter Returns


You don’t need a winter jacket this morning with temperatures starting in the 50s.  But cold air moving in this afternoon will cause temperatures to tumble into the 30s by dinnertime. The cool air will be accompanied by some clearing in the wake of a strong cold front.  Fog, clouds and morning showers will give way to partial sunshine this afternoon.  A storm passing well to the south and east of Connecticut may graze us with a little light rain or snow late tonight into early tomorrow.

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

40s, 50s, 30s. Rollercoaster Forecast.

50s this weekend, and snow possible by this time next week.  Welcome to winter in New England!

After two days in the 40s, a highly advertised warm up arrives this weekend.  Sun returns tomorrow with a northwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.  Clouds will lower and thicken up on Friday as the leading edge of some mild air tries to move in.  Showers develop late in the afternoon and at night.  Clouds break for sun on Saturday as temperatures soar into the 50s both days this weekend. A cold front on Monday brings a few additional showers followed by a return to winter cold (30s) by this time next week. Snow is possible Wednesday.  The forecast rarely remains the same looking out to day 7. But a couple of inches are possible if everything pans out just right.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

40s Through Friday, 50s This Weekend


Tomorrow will start off sunny with clouds increasing during the afternoon as a cold front approaches.  A sprinkle or two is possible late in the day but most towns will stay dry.  

Thursday will be slightly cooler, sunny and breezy behind the front.  

A few showers are likely on Friday, mainly later in the day as mild air tries to move in.  

By Saturday and Sunday it will feel like early spring with temperatures climbing into the 50s.  

A winter chill returns by the middle and end of next week.

NCDC Announces Warmest Year on Record for Contiguous U.S.


All states marked with the number 118 are the warmest on record. Records go back 118 years.
2012 will go down as the warmest year on record.  Is this notable? Yes.  But that doesn't mean you need to prepare your boat for Kevin Costner's Waterworld.  2012 is the warmest year ON RECORD.  Records only go back 118 years. In the span of the earth's existence that's a pretty small amount of time. The average temperature was 3.2 degrees above average.  That beats the previous record from 1998 by an entire degree.  In the world of weather, that's A LOT!
This was the driest year on record for Nebraska and Wyoming
From temperature extremes to precipitation extremes...2012 was also the driest year on record.  

Click here for the Top Ten Weather/Climate Events of 2012.  No surprise here.  Sandy is #1.

Monday, January 7, 2013

Bored.


When I have trouble filling a 500 character weather summary, you know this is a quiet week!  Temperatures will run five to ten degrees above average through Friday.  Most of this week will be sunny and pleasant with a few additional clouds on Wednesday. Showers will develop on Friday as 50 degree temperatures prepare to move in. Once the clouds break on Saturday temperatures will be off to the races.  50s will stick around through Sunday or Monday until a cold front brings us back to reality.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Dirty Snow...Your Days Are Numbered

We have another quiet week coming up without any big storms in the forecast.  Plus, a late week warm up will help melt all the dirty snow and ice stuck in your yard.  One of our producers slipped and fell recently on some pesky black ice.

A weak disturbance brings clouds and a few flurries up through the Berkshires overnight.  But Connecticut should stay dry with temperatures dropping into the 20s.

Temperatures will remain around average the next two days with mostly sunny skies. The warming trend will start slowly on Tuesday and Wednesday with low 40s in the afternoon. A few showers are possible Friday and over the weekend with temperatures soaring into the 50s! Don’t worry winter lovers, the warm up is short-lived.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Storm Tracker!

Gangsta! This is our new weather vehicle! We'll be able to go live from the center of a storm. Think Twister. OK...I'm half kidding. But this will be a great addition to our weather coverage year round. We will do this safely, of course!
Should we just call this Dan Amarante's storm tracker?  I'm always stuck inside...

On another note, I'm an annoying person to watch Twister with. I know every word. And most meteorologists hate the movie for the factual errors. Oh, please...like The Matrix is real? Or is it???

The Chill Eases

This morning Bradley International Airport recorded a low temperature of 0 degrees.  That’s the coldest temperature recorded in that location since February…2011! Two years ago! Cold, yes.  But Bradley didn’t break the record of  -3 degrees set in 2001 and 2008.

The heart of the cold air is moving out.  Tonight will be 10-15 degrees milder than last night. Inland lows will drop into the upper teens and low 20s.  The shoreline will bottom out in the mid 20s.

Winds will shift out of the southwest tomorrow bringing relief from the deep chill with high temperatures returning to the 30s. A storm moving through Canada will bring some snow showers to northern New England.  But we’ll be too far south here in Connecticut with just a few extra clouds. Bright sunshine starts off the weekend on Saturday.  But a fast moving disturbance will bring back the clouds and the chance for a few flurries on Sunday.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

BRRRRRR...Coldest Air Of The Season To Date

Dig out your warmest winter gear!  It’s so cold, I’m breaking out the cow hat.  Yeah.  This is serious.


Tonight will feature the coldest air so far this season.   Temperatures will plummet into the single digits inland, low teens for the shoreline.  But even a light wind could drive wind chills near or below zero at the bus stop tomorrow morning!  Temperatures will get stuck in the 20s tomorrow afternoon. But the heart of the cold air is already moving out by Friday.  30s return for the remainder of the week. There is a chance for a few flurries Thursday night and again on Sunday. But no big storms in sight!  

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

My First Turns Of the 2012-2013 Season

This is my third year snowboarding so I still get nervous getting ready for the first ride of the year. But I picked a perfect time to head to Vermont with a fresh 14" of powder when I woke up Thursday morning and an additional half a foot during the day.  But be careful what you wish for....it's hard snowboarding in deep powder.  I couldn't stop falling on Thursday! It felt like my first day snowboarding all over again!
There is such a thing as too much powder.
The second day (last Friday) was much better.  PACKED POWDER!  But the mountain got packed during the afternoon.  Everyone was excited to play in the fresh snow.
Killington, VT


2012 In Review & Looking Forward

The results are in!  2012 was officially the mildest year on record for Windsor Locks with an average temperature of 53.7 degrees.  Records date back to 1905.
Here are some additional 2012 Weather records:
February: 3rd warmest, 5th driest, 8th least snowiest  month
March: 2nd warmest, 7th least snowiest month
April: 2nd Warmest
August: 4th warmest
November: Driest for Windsor Locks, snowiest November on record for Bridgeport
Winter: 2nd warmest, 4th least snowiest
Spring: All time warmest, 6th least snowiest

Events to Remember:
1/21: snow storm dumps about a foot of snow in south CT. 
10/29: Sandy strikes the east coast
11/7: November nor’easter with over a foot of snow in parts of southern CT, and only around an inch in northern CT.

Looking Forward:
Last year was the mildest on record. But the word “mild” will not cross your mind the next few days.  An arctic air mass is taking over!  Temperatures will start in the teens Wednesday morning and a northwest breeze will make temperatures feel like the 20s all day.  A cold front will bring a few additional clouds tomorrow afternoon followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air.  A few flurries or a snow shower is possible Thursday night into Friday morning.  But overall, there are no big storms in sight!  The cold eases this weekend before thawing out next week.