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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

2014 Starts Cold With A Storm On The Horizon

While January 1st is dry, we’re already tracking the first storm of 2014. It’s not a blockbuster storm.  But we’ll get enough snow to at least cause some travel issues.
Timing: Wednesday night around midnight  – Friday morning

Accumulations: 4”-8” of light fluffy snow

Breakdown: Occasional light snow will get us started late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Snow will become steadier and a bit heavier Thursday night into early Friday morning before tapering off.

Following the storm, Friday is downright frigid with high temps in the teens and subzero temperatures at night. Real winter cold has arrived!

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Wind chills in the teens and single digits at midnight. Lows: 15-20

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds. Chilly. High temperatures in the upper 20s inland, near 30 degrees for the shoreline. Snow begins around or after midnight.

Thursday: Periods of light snow and flurries. High temperatures in the middle 20s inland, upper 20s for the shoreline. Snow becoming steady and a bit heavier at night.

Friday: Heaviest snow ending early, with lingering flurries ending mid to late morning. Some clearing. But cold! High temperatures in the teens.

Saturday: Dangerously cold start to the day with temperatures beginning around or below zero! Sunny in the afternoon but remaining chilly. High temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Sunday: Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds. Chance for a snow shower at night. High temperatures in the middle 30s.

Friday, December 27, 2013

50/50 Weekend

This weekend will be 50/50. Get your outdoor activities and errands done Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid  40s.  Sunday looks wet with showers developing midday.  Rain will come down heavy at times late in the afternoon and at night. As cooler air begins to stream in as the storm departs, rain may briefly change over to a wintry mix before ending.  This is most likely to happen in the northwest hills.  Winter cold returns next week with highs in the teens and twenties!

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 20s.

Tomorrow: A mix of sunshine and clouds. Mild for this time of year! High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing midday. Some heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Rain could end briefly as a wintry mix (mainly in northwest Connecticut). High temp around 40 degrees.

Monday: Gradually turning partly cloudy. Breezy. High temperatures in the middle 30s inland, upper 30s for the shoreline.

Tuesday: Blustery and colder with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s! Sunshine mixing in with a few afternoon clouds.

As the ball drops: Temps in the teens!  But dry roads.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny start with increasing clouds, mainly late in the day. A few snow showers possible at night.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Calm Before the (Mainly Rain) Storm

The next several days look quiet and milder! A southwest wind will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s by this weekend. This mild air will set the stage for our next storm on Sunday. Low pressure moving northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain showers Sunday afternoon. Arctic air is lacking in this set up. But as the storm deepens off the coast of Nantucket, some colder air could cause rain to change over to a wintry mix briefly before ending. Luckily this is a quick hitter! The storm is moving out by Monday morning.

Colder air streams in by New Years Eve with high temperatures in the 20s! Luckily, the weather will cooperate by remaining dry for New Years Eve plans.

Arctic air arrives January second with a reinforcing shot of cold air with some towns staying in the teens for high temperatures!

Tonight: Partly cloudy to clear. Lows: 17-24
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny and a bit milder than recent days. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s inland. Near 40 degrees for the shoreline.
Saturday: A mix of sunshine and clouds. Mild for this time of year! High temperatures in the low to middle 40s.
Sunday: Cloudy with rain developing (mainly late). Rain could change to an icy mix at night. High temperatures in the lower 40s.
Monday: /mix ending before daybreak. Gradually turning partly cloudy. High temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
Tuesday: Breezy and colder with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s! Sunshine mixing in with a few afternoon clouds.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

I'm Mrs. Heat Miser

40s feel almost mild compared to the winter cold and snow from earlier this week.  Temperatures will slowly tick up the next several days.  But the warm up comes with limited sunshine. Friday and Saturday remain mainly dry but a shower can’t be ruled out each afternoon.  Showers are most likely on Sunday along with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  With the mild air and patchy fog, snow will melt at a rapid pace. The cool down begins Monday. By Tuesday we’re back in the 30s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows: 29-34

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy. Milder. Chance for a shower late in the day or at night. High temperatures in the middle 40s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Few showers developing in the afternoon. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.

Sunday: Scattered showers, patchy fog. Very warm! High temperatures in the 50s statewide. Some towns may approach the 60 degree mark!

Monday: Some clearing, breezy. Cooler than Sunday but still above average! High temperatures in the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s for the shoreline.

Tuesday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Drip, Drip, Drip

Snow piles will continue to shrink over the coming days. Sunshine will mix in with clouds on Thursday as slightly milder air moves in. The warming trend will continue Friday with the chance for a shower late in the day or at night. Saturday the battle zone between cold and warm air will take place directly over Connecticut. This will result in lots of clouds and scattered showers. Eventually the warmth will win resulting in a wet and warm Sunday with periods of rain and highs in the 50s.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows: 17-24.

Tomorrow: A mixture of sunshine and clouds, a bit milder. High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Friday: Increasing clouds, milder. Chance for showers late in the day or at night. High temperatures in the middle 40s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Showers developing in the afternoon. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.

Sunday: Periods of rain, foggy and very warm! High temperatures in the 50s statewide. Some towns may approach the 60 degree mark!

Monday: Clearing, breezy. Cooler than Sunday but still above average! High temperatures in the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s for the shoreline.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Melting The Snow Away

2”-5” of snow fell today.  While that doesn’t sound like a lot, the impact for this storm was higher because of the cold air!  With temperatures in the teens, every snowflake that fell accumulated on the roads.  With the peak of the storm hitting during rush hour, numerous roads became congested and snow covered.  But that’s over now!  Snow is winding down. Shoveling aside, we get a prolonged break from the snow.

With this recent cold and snowy pattern, you would think a white Christmas was a given this year.  Not so fast.   A warming trend is underway that will slowly chip away at the snow on the ground. Wednesday will be partly to mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid and upper 30s.  40s are likely Friday and Saturday.  The warm up peaks Sunday with highs in the 50s and periods of rain!  Temperatures will get back to average around Christmas time but little (or no) snow cover will remain.

Tonight: Lingering flurry. Low: Teens

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. Not as cold as recent days. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, a bit milder. High temperatures in the upper 30s inland, lower 40s for the shoreline.

Friday: Increasing clouds, noticeably milder. Chance for showers late in the day or at night. High temperatures in the middle 40s.

Saturday: Early showers followed by some clearing. Showers redeveloping at night. High temperatures in the middle 40s inland, upper 40s for the shoreline.

Sunday: Periods of rain, foggy and very warm! High temperatures in the 50s statewide. 

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

20s Thursday, Watching The Weekend

The official start to winter is still over a week away but our preview continues. An arctic front brought a reinforcing shot of cold air early Thursday. High temperatures will remain in the 20s statewide with plenty of sunshine. Clouds will increase Friday ahead of another front.  A few flurries are possible but most of the day will remain dry. The next storm will arrive Saturday and depart Sunday morning. While plowable snow is certainly possible, I don’t see this being a major snowstorm.

Without a blocking pattern, it appears a developing coastal storm will develop and move out too fast to bring a lot of snow/ice. I also don’t see the northern and southern branches of the jet stream phasing. These important factors will prevent us from getting a blockbuster snow/ice event.

 Light snow showers will break out Saturday.  With temperatures in the 20s, it shouldn’t have any trouble sticking to the ground! Snow will become steady in the afternoon. By Saturday night, here’s where things get tricky.  We’re waiting to see the track and intensity of a secondary coastal storm.  Right now we’re forecasting snow Saturday night that could mix in or change over to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain (along the shoreline).

We should be able to give you details regarding accumulations in a day or so.  We'll keep you posted!
Tonight: Chance a few flurries. Late clearing. Low: 14-21

Tomorrow: Sunshine mixing with a few afternoon clouds, arctic cold! High temperatures in the middle 20s inland, upper 20s for the shoreline.

Friday: Increasing clouds, remaining chilly. Chance for a flurry. High temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Saturday: Cloudy with light snow developing. becoming steady in the afternoon. High temperatures in the 20s statewide. Accumulating snow is likely.

Sunday: Morning snow/mix/rain tapering off. Travel plans might be impacted depending on precipitation type. High temperatures around 30 degrees.

Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

First Ice, Then Snow...Now COLD

Check out snow accumulations from the today’s storm.  Keep in mind, not all of them are current.  So check out the time stamp next to each one.

For Hartford, Tolland & Windham Counties: Click Here For Litchfield County: Click Here For New Haven, Middlesex, Fairfield and New London Counties: Click Here

Above freezing temps helped the roads during the day. But tonight any wet untreated road/walkways turn icy.

Monday was icy. Tuesday was snowy. The rest of the work week remains dry but it won’t feel any less like winter. By Thursday high temperatures will be in the 20s! So what else is brewing? After a three day break, there is a growing chance for a storm this weekend. Right now it looks like snow could break out in the afternoon. Snow may/may not change to a wintry mix at night into Sunday morning. It is still too early for specifics. Bottom line if you have weekend plans, watch the forecast.

Tonight: Lingering snow showers. Black ice. High: Mid-upper teens.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, cold and windy. High temperatures around 30 inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, arctic cold! High temperatures in the middle 20s inland, upper 20s for the shoreline.

Friday: Sunny to partly cloudy, remaining cold. High temperatures in the upper 20s inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Saturday: Cloudy with snow developing in the afternoon and accumulating before possibly changing over to a wintry mix at night.

Sunday: Morning snow/mix tapering off. Travel plans might be impacted depending on precipitation type. High temperatures in the low 30s.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Another Minor Storm

Another day, another minor “storm”.  But instead of a messy wintry mix, this one will be all snow!  On Tuesday snow starts around the end of the morning commute and moves out before the evening drive.  9am-3pm (give or take an hour). Most of the state will end up with a couple of inches of snow.  But higher amounts are possible if a heavier snow band set up.  2”-4” as a range should cover it. Snow will be light and fluffy. The rest of the work week is cold, breezy and dry. Another storm is possible this weekend. The timing and precipitation type is still unclear.

Tonight: Patchy fog/mist. Low: 27-35.

Tomorrow: Snow developing 8 am-10 am, ending 2 pm-4 pm. 2"-4" of snow. High temperatures in the low 30s inland, mid 30s for the shoreline.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, cold and windy. High temperatures around 30 inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, arctic cold! High temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

Friday: Partly cloudy, remaining cold. High temperatures in the upper 20s inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Saturday: Another storm is possible. While this doesn't look like a big snow maker, a wintry mix could cause travel problems.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

50s One Final Day

Thursday will be the mildest day in a long time. Temperatures will climb into the 50s which is impressive considering the time of year and lack of sun.  A nuisance shower is possible as a warm front approaches but most of the day will be dry.  You can get away without an umbrella on Thursday. But don’t leave home without the rain gear Friday. A powerful cold front will bring showers at times.  As an area of low pressure develops along the front, another wave of precipitation is likely Friday night into Saturday morning. With the cold air racing in, this could bring a brief period of snow/sleet. If the timing is perfect we could get a coating to an inch or two of snow. But if the cold air lags behind the front, very little changeover will occur with no accumulation.  Either way, we anticipate quick clearing on Saturday with cooler air taking over.

Saturday and Sunday look cool but dry as arctic high pressure builds into the region. Then we have to watch for another chance for winter weather.  Low pressure from the Gulf of Mexico will move towards Quebec.  Typically this is a warm track for us, meaning we would get rain, not snow!  While I do anticipate rain for most of Monday, there could be a brief burst of snow/sleet/freezing rain before the milder air punches in.  I don’t anticipate a lot of snow but there could be a messy period early Monday morning just in time for the commute. 

Tonight: Increasing clouds, areas of drizzle. Lows: 36-43

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, milder. Chance for a passing shower or some drizzle. High temperatures in the middle to upper 50s.

Friday: Cloudy with periods of rain. Turning cooler with temperatures falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Rain changing to a wintry mix/snow late at night.

Saturday: Early morning snow. Quick clearing but remaining chilly with high temperatures in the upper 30s inland, near 40 degrees for the shoreline.

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Snow developing at night. High temperatures in the middle 30s inland, upper 30s along the shoreline.

Monday: Early morning snow/ice changing to rain. Travel problems are possible for the morning commute. Periods of rain the rest of the day. Highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

One Piece Of The Puzzle

I think rain will change over to a mix of snow and sleet and then eventually snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Here's one of about a million things I look at when making a forecast.

You're looking at a cross section of the atmosphere modeled by the ECMWF or "European" model. On the Y axis you have pressure in MB. As you go up in the atmosphere, the pressure gets lower. So the bottom of the y axis would show you what's going on at ground level. The x axis is location as if you're looking at a slice of the atmosphere from New Haven (far left) to Windsor Locks (far right). The colors show temperature at various levels of the atmosphere.  Anything above 0 degrees is painted in green and yellow.

Notice how Friday night we start off as rain because as snow falls from the clouds it enters a big layer of above freezing temperatures and melts.
Rain Friday night
Here's where things get a little more complicated. Look at New haven on the left side first. Snow falls into a warmer layer and melts into rain.  Then just above the surface the rain refreezes before reaching the ground, likely forming sleet. In Windsor Locks on the far right, snow only falls into a marginal layer of above freezing temperatures.  Here the snow may actually survive the trip down to the ground.

Changing to Sleet/Snow
Then by Saturday morning the  layer above freezing is completely washed out allowing any leftover snow to reach the ground!
Snow/Sleet mix to all snow

Milder Two Days Before Winter Returns

In the short term, temperatures will be warming up.  Highs will be in the 50s by Thursday.  But in the long term, winter cold will win out.  It’s not that surprising for December!  The arctic plunge will get started on Friday with periods of rain and falling temperatures. With winter cold we also have a couple chances for a wintry mix or even snow!  The first opportunity for a changeover will be Friday night into early Saturday.  But we’re also keeping an eye on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 26-33.

Tomorrow: Patchy early morning fog. Partly sunny with increasing clouds late in the day. High temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Few light showers at night.

Thursday: Chance for an early morning shower. Otherwise, milder with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to mid 50s. Showers redeveloping at night.

Friday: Cloudy with periods of rain. Turning dramatically cooler with the high occurring early in the day and temperatures crashing throughout the day. Rain changing to a wintry mix/snow at night.

Saturday: Early morning snow. Quickly clearing but remaining chilly with high temperatures in the upper 30s inland, near 40 degrees for the shoreline.

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Snow developing late in the day or at night. High temperatures in the middle 30s inland, upper 30s along the shoreline.