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Thursday, February 25, 2016

2 AM Thursday AM Update

Wind gusts have approached 60-70 mph in parts of the state early Thursday morning. As I write this 62,000+ people are in the dark across Connecticut with downed trees and powerlines. While the worst winds overnight are within thunderstorms, wind damage is possible at any time overnight. Storms will move out between 3-4 AM.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 4 AM the latest.
A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds could gust over 60 mph.
Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in February?

While snow and ice is no longer a concern, we’re not out of the woods! Now our focus shifts to scattered downpours, gusty thunderstorms and a wild warm-up with temperatures approaching 60 degrees tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southern Connecticut until 2 AM Thursday. The biggest concern with any thunderstorms that develop will be wind damage. 

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds will increase tonight out of the south from  20 to 30 mph with a few gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Those higher wind gusts are most likely within a heavier downpour or thunderstorm. If strong storms develop, gusts could reach 70 mph. Scattered power outages are possible.

Temperatures will sky-rocket tonight, approaching 60 degrees! The warmer air will help boost instability out ahead of tonight’s worst weather.  The heaviest rain and threat for strong storms will be between 11 PM – 3 AM. 

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Then after an active start to the week, the rest of the week will be very calm in comparison. It’s noticeably cooler Friday and Saturday, in the 30s. But the chill won’t last. 50s return early next week.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rainy and warm with areas of fog and the chance for a few embedded gusty thunderstorms. 55-65.

Thursday: Pre-dawn torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with the chance for an isolated shower. Daytime high: 48-53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Near 50.

Monday: Mild and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for an isolated shower in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Snow on the way out

Snow is changing over to sleet and rain now in parts of southern Connecticut. That mixing line will slowly move north. By midnight the snow will be done everywhere. But with areas of drizzle and temperatures near freezing, some inland areas could see an icy glaze with slick spots for a few hours overnight.

We don’t expect big problems for the Wednesday morning commute. Most of the state will be above freezing with patchy fog and drizzle. However, icy spots could linger into early Wednesday for the northwest hills.

Wednesday looks cloudy and cool to start with showers becoming more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night. While daytime highs will be in the 30s, temperatures will soar at night, approaching 60 degrees by pre-dawn Thursday. Torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms are possible before sunrise with winds up to 50 mph.  Scattered power outages are possible too.

Luckily, the worst ends before the morning commute on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for a lingering shower in spots.

Then after an active start to the week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Snow changes to rain, then tapers off. Drizzle and fog overnight. Areas of freezing drizzle inland. Low: 30-35.

Wednesday: Drizzle and fog for the morning commute. Some icy spots possible in the northwest hills. Periods of rain. Heaviest late and at night. Cool most of the day with rising temps late.  High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.


Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Near 50.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Here we snow again!

Snowy evening commute Tuesday
Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quiet. Then conditions head downhill with a parade of storms the next 48-hours. Get ready for big swings in temperature and precipitation types as we go from snow to ice to rain and even thunder!

Snow will develop in the afternoon. This may start off as a brief wintry mix for some along the shoreline until the air cools-down enough to support all snow. Snow will be falling everywhere for the evening commute. We’re not expecting much in the way of accumulation, a coating to 2”. But that’s certainly enough to slow you down out there.

After the commute, snow will taper off and transition over to a light wintry mix and then rain showers as milder air moves in. But the cold may remain stubborn in some towns in the northern half of the state (Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties). While at cloud level, it will be warm enough for drizzle, temperatures at the surface might be cold enough freeze anything that falls, forming an icy glaze. That could be an issue heading into the Wednesday morning commute.

After some icy spots to start on Wednesday, temperatures will rise and showers will become more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night as temperatures soar. 50s are expected in the wee hours of Thursday morning with gusty winds and a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will taper off throughout the day Thursday. But not until we collect 1”-2” of rain!

Then after an active start to the work-week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 20s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with snow/wintry mix developing in the afternoon. A snowy evening commute. A coating - 2" possible.  High: 35-40.

Wednesday: Icy spots inland in the morning with pockets of freezing drizzle. Periods of rain, heaviest late-day and at night. High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: 30’s.

Friday, February 19, 2016

Spring Weekend

A taste of spring returns this weekend with temperatures climbing into the 50s.  The leading edge of milder air will trigger a few rain or snow showers Friday night into early Saturday morning (before sunrise). A few slick spots are possible from 10 PM – 3 AM with temperatures around freezing. Then temperatures will slowly rise towards daybreak around 35-40 degrees.

Clouds will break for some sun on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Sunday will be a smidge “cooler”, near 50.

We’re keeping a close eye on Sunday night into Monday morning. A fast moving disturbance passing south of Connecticut could bring a period of mix/snow.  While not a guarantee yet, accumulating snow is possible for the morning commute. Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend for updates.

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. But saying there is a big range of possible solutions would be an understatement!! Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? A new trend in the computer models today has the storm breaking into two weaker pieces. One storm Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Bottom line: snow/ice/rain is possible with potentially messy travel Wednesday – Thursday. But a big snowstorm in unlikely.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Thickening clouds with the chance for passing rain and snow showers. Low: 30-37.

Saturday: Clouds break for some sun, becoming partly cloudy and mild. High: 50-55.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Increasing clouds late. High: Near 40.

Wednesday: Chance for snow/mix/rain. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Warmer Weekend But A Few Chances For Snow

Thursday was noticeably cooler than recent days. But the chill doesn’t stick around. A warm front
Friday night into early Saturday will bring the chance for a light rain or snow shower in spots. It’s possible a handful of towns could get a coating out of this. But nothing too impressive without a lot of moisture to work with. 

By this weekend, spring is back with temperatures near 50 degrees.

Another disturbance will bring the chance for rain/snow showers late Sunday night into early Monday. While this isn’t a big snow threat, it could still cause some issues for the Monday morning commute. Perhaps even accumulating snow.

Don't get nervous or cancel plans over this yet. But it's worth watching this weekend!

On the weather watch:

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. The whole east coast will need to monitor for potential impacts. That’s a lot of real estate! As of right now, odds favor some impact from this storm here in Connecticut. Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? It’s too early to say. BUT I can tell you that odds DO NOT favor a bit snow hit for us.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Clear, cold. Breezy start with winds diminishing towards daybreak. Low: 10-20.

Friday: Sunshine to start with increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for rain/snow showers at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. High: Near 40.

Monday, February 15, 2016

Cold/White To Warm/Wet

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until early Tuesday morning. It's hard to believe we'll go from sub-zero temperatures to 50s and heavy rain in the span of 36 hours!

Snow has filled in and is having no trouble sticking to the ground because of the recent cold. Around 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate before switching over to ice and rain. This changeover will happen from south to north from 8 PM - midnight. Ice will hang out longer and could accumulate on the roads and powerlines for the Connecticut River Valley. This will lead to slippery/icy conditions for some late night drivers and even into the Tuesday morning commute.

The morning drive on Tuesday will be foggy and drizzly. Not much will be falling from the sky. But roads might still be icy, especially for northern valley locations around Hartford, north towards the Massachusetts border. School delays are possible for a handful of towns until that stubborn cold can be scoured out.
This graphic highlights the area we're most concerned about ice for Tuesday morning.
It could be much colder in the northern valley than surrounding areas.

Showers will become more numerous in the afternoon, especially later in the day as temperatures soar into the 50s. Rain will come down heavy at times with the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Even with lots of melting, river flooding should not be an issue. But poor drainage flooding and puddles are likely during the evening commute.

No more sub-zero temperatures. We're back to another milder pattern with near to above average temperatures for the next week or so.

Tonight: Snow becoming steadier. 1"-3" possible and then a change from snow to ice and then rain. Icing lingers longer for northern CT, especially in the northern valley locations. Low: 25-30. By Tuesday AM commute: 25-45. BIG range in temps.

Tuesday: Cloudy, drizzle and foggy in the morning. Icy spots linger early in far northern CT.  Steady/heavy rain developing in the afternoon. Some heavy at times. High: 50s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High: 40-45.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Friday: Becoming cloudy. Chance for rain/snow showers late or at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.


Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, partly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Quick Shot Of Cold

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy
of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. 
High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.


Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Bitterly Cold Valentine's Day Weekend

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.


Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Colder, Windier Days Ahead

Snow has come to an end tonight. But the break will be short-lived. Flakes fly again tomorrow and perhaps Saturday morning. Even with some nuisance snow in the forecast, the big story is the harsh, potentially record breaking cold that follows this weekend.

Snow showers will redevelop again on Thursday. Once again activity will be hit or miss. Some towns will get very little or no snow while others could get a quick coating to an inch or two. Winds will pick up throughout the day with gusts up to 30 miles an hour. Temperatures will be much colder than recent days with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the 10s.

As bitter cold arrives Friday night into Saturday morning, there is one last shot at snow showers. This doesn’t look like much but it’s worth mentioning so you don’t get caught off guard.

Get your hats, scarves and gloves ready to go heading into this weekend. High temperatures will be in the teens both days. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be below zero and when you factor in the wind, it will feel more like -30 to -20 to start off the day!



The frigid blast only lasts a couple of days though. In fact, the next storm late Monday night into Tuesday may be mainly rain with temperatures in the 40s. All in a New England week!

Forecast Details:
Not sure what I was smiling about....

Tonight: Partly cloudy with snow showers developing towards daybreak. Low: 17-25.

Tomorrow: Windy and colder with scattered snow showers. High: 23-28.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High: mid-upper 20s.

Saturday: Morning snow possible, otherwise windy and bitterly cold. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. High: Low-mid 10s.

Monday, February 8, 2016

More snow & cold. Winter is back!

Another snowy day started off the work week. The snow caused numerous problems with accidents across the state this afternoon, and will continue to do so through the evening commute. Light to occasionally moderate snow will slowly taper off, ending around or before midnight for most of the state.

There’s no denying it now. Winter isn’t over yet. This week offers a sharp contrast from last week’s spring-like 50s. There are several chances for snow, not to mention the coldest air of the season this weekend.  

Timing this week’s potential snow:

One round of snow showers Wednesday could bring a light accumulation, on the order of a coating to two inches in spots.

An arctic front Thursday will trigger a round of snow squalls, brief bursts of snow and gusty winds. Snow squalls are infamous for bringing rapid changes in weather like brief white-out conditions and a quick coatings of snow.

The biggest question mark is late Friday night into Saturday morning. There are some signals for accumulating snow. Most of our computer models show little impact through this time-frame. But it’s still worth watching, especially heading into the big Valentine’s Day weekend.

Biggest cold snap of the year-to-date:

This weekend will be bitterly cold with highs in the teens and low temperatures in single digits to below-zero!! A breeze at times this weekend could send wind chills into the “dangerous” category.

Tonight: Cloudy with periods of light to moderate snow, tapering off around/before midnight. An additional coating -3" possible. Low: 15-20.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy.  High: 30-35.

Tomorrow Night: Snow showers could bring another coating - 1" in spots. But accumulations will be hit or miss. Low: 18-25.

Wednesday: Chance for snow showers, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Thursday: Windy and colder with a few bursts of snow possible. High: Near 30.

Friday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cold. High: mid-upper 20s.

Saturday: Morning snow possible, otherwise windy and bitterly cold. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Still frigid cold. Morning lows below zero, afternoon highs in the teens.

Friday, February 5, 2016

1 AM update

Just a little tweaking to account for current trends and to keep things current. Waiting for the Euro to come in so I can go home and stress out there!! ;)




Thursday, February 4, 2016

Well that escalated quickly...

A snow storm is heading this way and the worst will hit during the morning commute on Friday.
I know it seems impossible. But snow can and will stick to the ground if it comes down heavy enough, even after several days of near-record warmth.

This storm looked like it would barely brush us a couple of days ago. But the trend over the last 36 hours has been to bring the storm closer to the coast and the impact for us has changed in a big way.

Timing:

Impact:

-Snow covered roads for the commute along with poor visibility.
-School delays and closings are likely.
-Snow will be wet and heavy (tough to move).
-Some power outages are possible with wet heavy snow sticking to trees and powerlines.
-North winds could gust up to 30 mph, blowing snow.

Accumulations:


3”-6” range for most of the state with higher amounts possible in eastern/northeastern Connecticut. Lower amounts, 1”-3” in northwest Connecticut, including most of Litchfield County.
While we have high confidence about the impact of this storm, there is lower confidence on the actual accumulations. Typically when forecasting snow, we use a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means every 1” of precipitation produces 10” of snow. But that ratio will be lower during this storm. We’re also dealing with a warm ground. While that won’t prevent snow from accumulating, it can eat away at some of the snow that falls. Basically…more snow will fall than will actually accumulate. We feel confident that snow totals will be highest in eastern Connecticut with lower amounts in Litchfield County. The range you see does a good job at showing local variability depending on elevation and snow intensity and also accounts for a small shift in the storm track. We feel comfortable preparing you for the worst instead of you getting surprised with more than you expected. It looks like there will be an area of 6”+ in eastern Connecticut. Right now we think the best chance of that happening is in northeastern CT because of mixing issues in New London County. That being said, that bullseye may need to expand or contract depending on the temperature profile.

Weather Alerts:

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for northeastern Connecticut, in Windham County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.


A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of the state with the exception of Litchfield County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But the trend over the last 24 hours has been to bring the worst of the storm farther offshore. This would mean some snow, but nothing big here in Connecticut. Still, it’s a timeframe we need to keep our eye on as a lot can change between now and Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rain showers develop tonight before mixing and changing over to snow after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Friday: Snow, some heavy for the AM drive. Snow ending 10 am - 2 pm from west to east. Breezy with developing sunshine. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, mild and breezy. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds late. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy with the chance for snow. Watching the track of a developing coastal storm. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Last Call For 50s!

It will be a mild start to the day Thursday and a warm finish, in the 50s one last day! A lingering shower is possible early, before 8 am. Otherwise, the rest of the day is partly cloudy and mild.

There is a rising chance for snow Thursday night into Friday morning. The same front bringing rain tonight will stall south of the area. As a little storm rides along it, some rain/snow will graze Cape Cod and the Islands.  Farther west, here in Connecticut, there is more uncertainty. Yesterday we were calling for flurries. Today the trend has been to push snow showers farther northwest. Either way it looks like the best chance of plowable snow would be in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But there are a lot of other scenarios in the range of possibilities as well. Still being 6 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come.
A lot of possible outcomes regarding snow next week. But it shows potential!
Image Source: Weatherbell Analytics

Forecast Details:


Tonight: Periods of rain, windy. 50s for most of the night. mid-upper 40s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Chance for an early shower. Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, colder. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Warm & Windy Wednesday

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 30s.


Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s

Forecast Discussion:

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cooling trend.

The morning commute looks dry with showers developing around midday. The bulk of the rain will hold off until the afternoon and evening with some heavier downpours possible for the ride home. Winds will slowly ramp up too, coming out of the south with gusts up to 35 miles an hour. While it will be windy and wet we’re not expecting damaging winds or flooding.  Rain will continue after the sun sets but temperatures will continue to rise through around midnight-2am when a cold front crosses. Ahead of the front, temperatures will soar into the 50s to around 60 degrees! Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

Cooler air will lag behind the storm. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 50s. Then by Friday, February returns with highs in the upper 30s. There is a slight chance for a few flurries early Friday morning, especially in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the Weather Watch…Early next week

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. Since that is 6-7 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come. 

Monday, February 1, 2016

Spring Fling



60s in February!? High temperatures Monday, February 1st were 20-25 degrees above average. Surprisingly, we didn’t break any records!  Temperatures won’t be quite as warm the next few days but will remain well above average.

The Groundhog is guaranteed to be confused Tuesday with blue skies and temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.  

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cool-down. While the morning commute looks dry, showers will develop around midday. Rain will fall heavily at times with very mild temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees! A gusty southwest wind will pick up too. Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

The cooler air will lag behind the front a bit. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 40s. Then by Friday, a real February chill returns with highs in the upper 30s. Still, there’s no big arctic cold in sight.

Forecast Details:

Monday Night: Chance early sprinkle, slow clearing, cooler. Low: 25-35.

Tuesday: Sunny, remaining mild. High: 45-50.

Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Friday: Sunny, breezy, cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.