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Monday, February 28, 2011

Tuesday's Forecast

Sunshine returns today after a gloomy, soggy start to the week. A seasonably cool but dry air mass is moving in. With a big pressure difference in the atmosphere, this morning will be breezy. Winds will blow out of the northwest from 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Another front will come through tomorrow. Although we are not expecting any rain with the front, cold weather will follow for Thursday with temperatures in the 20s. The next chance for showers or rain is over the weekend.

9 on the Rach-O-Meter!

Friday, February 25, 2011

Calm Saturday, Snowy Sunday

We get a break from stormy weather Saturday as high pressure moves in. Skies will start off mostly sunny with some clouds building in as a weak storm approaches. Snow will arrive within a few hours of midnight tonight, lasting into Sunday morning before tapering off. This isn’t a big storm with 1”-3” of snow accumulation. The sun might pop out during the afternoon Sunday before our next storm arrives. Although there may be a little ice to start, Monday looks like another rain and wind event.


Rain Totals from the last storm:
Thompson: 2.02"
Bridgeport: 1.54"
North Granby: 1.53"
Groton: 1.37"

Check out snowfall totals in northern New England!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

1st Out Of 3 Storms Moving In

Rain will come down heavy at times on Friday. During the morning commute, there could be some slippery spots in the northern hills with a lingering wintry mix. But everyone will change over to plain rain. Temperatures will peak in the 40s to low 50s. With snow melt combined with 1”-2” of rain, poor drainage flooding and ponding water is possible. The heaviest rain will come down in the morning through late afternoon. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or see some lightning tomorrow when the front swings on through. If we experience some convection (thunderstorms), rainfall amounts could be even higher in spots! The storm changes back to snow temporarily Friday night before moving out. Some of the models show a coating -1.5” Friday night. With the milder air in place, I think that’s a little overdone. But there could be some slippery spots. A storm Sunday could bring a light snow accumulation with another rainstorm likely Monday.

This timelne below basically says the same thing in a different layout. It's a little more detailed. I had to write it for the Courant so I thought I would paste it in here anyway.

Storm Timeline & Summary:

AM Commute: During the morning commute there could be some slippery spots in the northern hills with a lingering wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Everywhere else (most of the state) plain rain will fall for the commute, creating a sloppy and wet ride or walk to work and school.

Afternoon: The heaviest rain will fall during the late morning through the late afternoon. With temperatures peaking in the 40s to low 50s, snow will start to melt, especially along the shoreline. With snow melt, and an additional 1”-2” of rain, poor drainage flooding and ponding on the roads is likely. Rainfall amounts could be higher in areas that experience a thunderstorm.

Evening: The storm will move out tonight after the evening commute, changing back to a wintry mix/snow briefly. The ground will still be warm so initially any snow should melt on contact with the road. But there could be some slippery spots with a light coating of snow. Winds will increase dramatically, gusting up to 50 mph in southern Connecticut. Winds that strong, combined with the wet ground could result in isolated power outages.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

3 Storms On The Way, Mostly Rain!

Three storms are on the way...
1) Thursday night-Friday
2) Saturday night-Sunday
3) Monday

2"-3" of rainfall is possible during that time frame. There could also be some melting of the snow and ice already on the ground. Poor drainage flooding, ponding of roads could be an issue. So now would be a good time to do some pre storm maintenance. Make sure the gutters around your home are clear and storm drains are free of ice/snow blockage. I do not anticipate any river flooding at this time (for Friday) but we'll have to revisit the possibility on Monday.

Forecast Discussion: After a cold but sunny start, clouds will increase during the afternoon on Thursday as high pressure moves offshore. Although the day will be dry, a storm will move in Thursday night bringing a mix of rain/snow/sleet. Although there could be some slippery spots, we are not expecting plowable snow. Any areas of mixed precipitation will change to rain on Friday, coming down heavy at times. Poor drainage flooding could be an issue. Precipitation will briefly change back to a wintry mix before ending Friday night.

Saturday is partly cloudy, cold and windy. Low to mid 30s.

Sunday could be the best chance we have at seeing an inch or two of accumulating snow.

Monday looks like wind driven rain with temperatures that could pop up into the low 50s! BIG melting day. I'll keep you posted.

Meanwhile, I am heading to a wedding in South Beach this weekend where temps will be near 80 degrees. WOO HOO! But I'll probably be nervous about the weather around here the entire time. I'm serious. I fly back early Monday afternoon...I hope there are no issues to cause flight delays (wind). I need to be on the air by 4 PM. EEEK! Cross your fingers for me.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Dry, Slight Warming Trend Through Thursday

Grab your sunglasses on your way out the door Wednesday with blue skies in the forecast. High pressure is sitting almost directly on top of the state protecting us from bad weather. Temperatures will be around average for this time of year(upper 30s to near 40 degrees). Then Thursday as the high moves offshore, southerly winds will cause temperatures and clouds to increase even more. Thursday night into Friday a storm threatens to bring a messy mix of rain, snow and/or ice. The mix could change over to rain on Friday depending on the storm’s track. There is another chance for snow on Sunday which will likely change to rain during the day. Monday's storm also looks mostly like rain right now. These are low confidence forecasts so I encourage you to follow us closely! Thanks!

Monday, February 21, 2011

Another 1"-3" & More On The Way?

This latest storm brought snow totals that ranged from 1"-3" for all of CT EXCEPT for southwestern Fairfield County where 4"-5" was common. NWS Map of Storm Totals.

Adding the latest snowfall to our running total. This season is the #5 snowiest on record! Records date back to 1905. We are only 3.4" away from the #2 spot. So I think we have that in the bag! BUT much more snow is needed to clench the #1 snowiest year, 115.2" set back in 1996-1997.


Looking forward:
Tuesday will be mostly sunny but chilly with high pressure funneling in cold air from Canada. Winds will blow out of the north 5-15 mph. The wind chill will start off near zero in the morning, recovering into the teens during the afternoon. Wednesday will remain sunny but the winds will slacken and temperatures will not be as cold. By Thursday, milder air (40s) will return with increasing clouds. Late Thursday night into Friday another storm could bring us rain/snow depending on the track. More rain/snow is possible late Sunday into Monday! We don't necessarily want a lot of rain either, because that could mean flooding for some areas.

Forecast From 4 P.M.
 

Friday, February 18, 2011

Winter Returns Saturday

 
The last time Hartford hit 63 degrees was on November 13th, 2010. Take a look at some of the high temperatures across the state!

Hartford: 63
Waterbury: 61
Danbury: 59
New London: 54
Windsor Locks: 58

No records were broken today. The record in Windsor Locks is 68 degrees. The record for Bridgeport is 60 degrees, both set back in 1981.

Get ready to go from spring back to winter reality. A powerful cold front will whisk away the warm air and replace it with cooler, windy conditions. Winds will howl out of the west on Saturday from 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Skies will be partly sunny with some flurries or a snow shower possible, mainly in northern Connecticut. Sunday will be sunny but breezy with temperatures in the 30s. Snow/mix is possible late Sunday after midnight into President’s Day with a coating to few inches of snow possible.

Whale Bowl forecast: Partly cloudy, windy and cold. Mid to upper 20s during the game with wind chills in the teens.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

To be honest with you...

I'm forecasting 60 degrees tomorrow inland. Low to mid 50s along the shore. In full sunshine...67 would be in the cards. I think morning clouds keep us lower than that. But if the clouds break earlier than expected...it could be warmer. If clouds never break, 60 will be out of reach. Tough temperature forecast. BUT either way, it's going to be warm tomorrow.

From Spring Back To Winter

High Temperatures Today (Thursday):

Waterbury: 59
Willimantic: 59
Hartford: 59
Bridgeport:52
New London: 52
Note: The high temperature posted for New Haven: 67 degrees has to be an error. No way it hit 67 degrees today.

Friday's Forecast:

If it was completely sunny tomorrow, temperatures could hit 70 degrees. BUT clouds will keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.

Friday will start off cloudy with patchy fog/drizzle. As the day progresses, clouds will break for partial sunshine. The amount of sun we see will determine temperatures. If sunshine breaks out early, temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, in the 60s. But if clouds stick around, most towns will stay in the 50s. Either way it will feel like spring with lots of melting. A cold front will swing through late in the day triggering a shower in spots. Then it will turn very windy and cooler Friday night into Saturday with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

SPRING FEVER!

Spring fever will be in full effect the next two days as warmer air moves in. Skies will remain partly sunny Thursday. Temperatures inland will top out in the low to mid 50s. Since the Long Island Sound is still in the 30s, any wind component off the water will keep shoreline temperatures a bit lower. Tomorrow will be even warmer with temperatures taking a run at 60 degrees in some towns. A shower is possible late-day/night as a strong front moves through. Cooler air returns this weekend.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Not As Cold Wednesday---Warmer Late-Week

Wednesday will be a transitional day before a big warm up late-week. After a frigid morning, temperatures will recover into the upper 30s to low 40s. Sunshine will mix with high clouds as the day progresses. Southwesterly winds will transport warmer air into the state starting Thursday. Temperatures could touch 50 degrees in a few towns with low to mid 50s possible on Friday. A shower is possible late Friday as a cold front approaches, bringing cooler air for the weekend.

4PM News from 2-15

Forecast From 2-15

Monday, February 14, 2011

Valentine's Day Weather Discussion & Video Forecast

With a high of 55 degrees, Windsor Locks tied the record for warmest Valentine’s Day. Tuesday will be sharply colder and windy in the wake of a strong front that moved through last night. Temperatures will remain in the 20s with winds blowing from the west at 10-20 mph, and gusts to 35 mph. Wind chills will be in the teens and single digits all day. High pressure will provide bright sunshine the next two days. Temperatures are warming up starting Wednesday. By Friday it will feel like spring! BRING ON THE MELTING!!! I am so sick of snow taking up the right lane. It takes me an extra 10-20 mins to get to work. Grrrrrr.

 

Friday, February 11, 2011

Forecast From 2-11

 
Weather discussion below.

4 PM Show & Weather Discussion

A series of clippers will pass north of Connecticut over the next few days. The first one will move by on Saturday providing partly to mostly cloudy skies. Although there will be some flurries in parts of the state, most of the day will stay dry. Temperatures will be around average for this time of year, topping out in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will blow out of the west between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.

Two more clippers will bring scattered light snow/rain showers Sunday into early Valentine’s Day. Again, most of the moisture stay north of Connecticut. Monday will be milder with temperatures in the low 40s. Then get ready for a bigger warm up late next week with temperatures in the 40s to near 50!

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Friday Forecast Discussion

Here's a little secret: I have to write this little discussion for the Hartford Courant every night. If I can remember, I'll post it on my blog first so you can get a sneak peak! Shhhh, don't tell!

A strong area of high pressure will provide lots of sunshine Friday morning. High clouds will increase during the afternoon and evening as moisture from a disturbance approaches. Temperatures remain well below average statewide. There could be a few flurries or a snow shower on Saturday, otherwise the day will remain partly sunny. There is another chance for light snow or rain on late Sunday into early Monday, but there are no big storms in sight. Expect moderating temperatures this weekend and beyond. 40s to near 50 possible by the end of next week?

NWS Reduces January Snowfall Record

The NWS is reducing the snowfall at BDL for January 8, 2011 and the monthly total by 2.7″. This is the statement that they issued today because of BOB COX!

"JANUARY 2011 SNOW TOTALED 54.3 INCHES AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN WINDSOR LOCKS CONNECTICUT. THIS BREAKS THE JANUARY RECORD 43.1 INCHES SET IN 1996. THE PREVIOUS SNOWIEST MONTH ON RECORD WAS 45.3 INCHES SET IN 1945. THE DAILY SNOW TOTAL FOR 1/8/11 HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO 3.4 INCHES."

Bob used to appear on the FOX CT weekend news. But he's better known as the meteorologist for WTIC Newstalk 1080 as well as other local radio stations. Bob, Garett, Joe and I have all been talking about how the record was tainted after a storm on 1-8 reported a questionable amount of snow. The record is important to get right because we'll be referring to it many times in the future as a benchmark year! So Cox actually took action. Here's the e-mail he sent to the NWS Taunton office yesterday.

"Gentlemen,

As you are aware, January 2011 was an historic month for snowfall in the state of Connecticut.

I work with 6 other meteorologists out of an office in Hartford that services television, radio, and a major newspaper in the area. A number of us were scratching our heads a bit after the snowfall event of January 8, 2011. Between January 8th and 9th BDL reported 9.9" of snow.

Looking at both the PNS spotter reports and the preliminary LCD it appears that BDL reported 3.8" of snow on the 7th, followed by another 2.8" after midnight on the 8th from one event and then another 3.3" of snow during the night of the 8th from a second event. I believe the 2.8" that was reported after midnight on the 8th during the first event may be in error.

The town of East Granby, CT is located right next to BDL. Reports from the CT Dept. of Transportation show that East Granby only received 2.5" of snow from the first event (Jan. 7-the morning of Jan. 8). This was similar to some of the feedback we were getting from that part of the state. Also, North Granby (from the PNS statement) only reported 3.2" of snow from the first event, ending on the morning of the 8th, and East Longmeadow, MA only reported 2.0" from the same event. So we have BDL reporting 6.6" total from this event, East Granby 2.5", North Granby 3.2", and East Longmeadow 2.0". It appears that the 2.8" that BDL reported after midnight (early on the 8th) is the reason their total is so much higher that the surrounding reports. After reviewing NEXRAD 0.5 degree base reflectivity images for that time period, it does not appear to me that BDL could have received 2.8" of snow after midnight on the morning of the 8th.

Since the snowfall total for BDL for January 2011 is such an important number that we will be referring to countless times in the future, I urge you to review this and determine whether a correction is in order, or whether I am in error. Thank you for your attention to this.

Regards,

Bob Cox
"


They have already responded! Check it out:

"Good morning Bob,

Did some digging (no pun intended) into the surface observations for BDL as well as data for surrounding reports. I have determined the there was an error in the snowfall reported for January 8th for BDL. Based on everything I looked at the snowfall between 1 AM and 7 AM for January 8th at BDL should have been reported as 0.1 inches as opposed to the 2.8 inches that was reported. Based on my findings the 24 hour snowfall for BDL for January 8th is now 3.4 inches.

The 24 hour snowfalls for BDL bor the 7 through 9 are as follows:

01/07/11 24 hour snowfall is 3.8 inches

01/08/11 24 hour snowfall is 3.4 inches

01/09/11 24 hour snowfall is T inches

This will be reducing the monthly snowfall for BDL to 54.3 inches which will still be a record for the month.

This updated data will be reflected in the BDL F6 on our web page. Also the corrected seasonal snowfall for BDL will be updated on the CLI product. Finally we will be issueing an updated RER for the record monthly snowfall for BDL.

Alan Dunham, OPL
"

In the end 2.7" doesn't make a huge difference but now the record is more accurate.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Forecast Discussion & Video

Chilly, dry weather will continue through Friday with a big ridge of high pressure in place. Any clouds around Thursday morning will break apart, revealing mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below average the next two days. Then on Saturday, the jet stream will start lifting north allowing temperatures to return to normal. There could be a few flurries Saturday but most of the day will be dry. A period of light snow is possible Sunday-Monday as two weak storms move through.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

4th Snowiest Year On Record!

At least we get recognition for this active winter! After a bit of snow and rain last night into this morning, Windsor Locks has tacked on another 2" to the seasonal snowfall total. Now this is the....

4th Snowiest Year on record for Windsor Locks with 82.6"

Just 32.6" to go until the #1 spot currently held by the winter of 1995-96 with 115.2"

*Records date back to 1905

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Mostly Rain

Most of the state is dealing with rain now with an icy glaze in the hills. Yuck. That's all I have to say about that. It's amazing that yesterday morning temperatures were below zero and now rain is falling.

Friday, February 4, 2011

Saturday Slush!

Storm Summary: Another "storm" will bring a mixture of snow, sleet, and rain. I don't even want to call it a storm because that might by hyping it up too much. This "storm" would normally be considered a nuisance event, but will have a slightly greater affect due to our overactive winter pattern.

Timeline: A mix of snow, sleet and rain will overspread Connecticut during the afternoon. Although a rain or snow shower could sneak in during the morning, any activity would be light and scattered. Precipitation becomes steadier as the afternoon progresses. As temperatures rise above freezing, any mix will change over to plain rain from southeast to northwest. At night, precipitation changes back over to light snow or flurries before the storm moves out early Sunday.

Accumulations: Accumulations will range between 1”-3” north of I-84. We are expecting little or no accumulation south of the interstate (for most of the state) with a slushy coating to an inch possible.

Storm Impacts: No matter what type of precipitation falls from the clouds in your area, weight will be added to the existing snowpack and that could cause additional structural concerns. 0.30”-0.6” of liquid equivalent will fall.

Localized minor flooding will also be an issue where snow/ice/slush is clogging storm drains.

Forecast From 2-3



I'm thinking a coating to 2" in southern CT where more mixing is expected. 2"-6" northern half of CT. That number will need to be tweaked as the amount of mixing becomes more clear.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Forecast Discussion

Friday will be chilly but sunny with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds will increase Friday night as a new storm moves out of the Gulf of Mexico. The system will arrive on Saturday with a mix of snow, sleet and rain.

Timing: Snow will likely arrive early Saturday morning, mixing in with sleet. Then some areas south of Hartford will change over to rain as temperatures climb above freezing. The mixture will hold down accumulations along the shoreline. Towns north of I-84 will see the most snow accumulation where a mix is least likely. The storm ends Saturday night with a change to all snow statewide before precipitation moves out. Skies will slowly clear through the overnight hours and high pressure will build back. Sunday looks sunny, just in time to clean up the aftermath before Superbowl plans.

Impacts: This storm would normally be considered a “nuisance” event. But with snow and ice already piled high on the side of the road and in our backyard, cleanup will be more challenging than usual. Also, this storm will add between 0.5-0.75” of liquid which will add weight to the pre-existing snowpack. This will only add to the growing list of structural issues across the state.

Accumulations: Check back soon! I need to wait for one more model run tonight. I'll have it by 11 PM and post my thoughts ASAP. If .5"-.75" of liquid were all snow, that would be 5"-7.5" of snow so this is not a big snow storm. But as I explained above, the storm will still cause headaches because of the active season.

Forecast From 2/2

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Snowiest year ever? We got this....

80.6" of snow this season in Windsor Locks and counting. This is now the 5th snowiest year on record! We beat 1966-67 which now slides down to the #6 spot. Records date back to 1905.

Only 34.6" until we break the record for snowiest year.

Current Record holder: 115.2" in 1995-96.

Let's go for it! Does it make a difference at this point?

Tonight & Beyond

The massive two part storm that brought snow, sleet, rain and freezing rain has moved out. Some areas like New Haven and Fairfield reported up to a half inch of ice coating trees and power lines. Luckily, this was not a major ice storm. Downed power lines were an issue, but did not cause widespread outages.

Tonight, the roads are very slushy, especially along the shore where rain fell for much of the day. As temperatures tumble into the teens, any areas of standing water will turn to ice. Black ice will be a concern on any untreated roads or walkways. There will be some additional snow showers tonight which could coat up the roads with another inch of snow possible in spots.

Tomorrow high pressure will build into southern New England causing some clearing with partly sunny skies. But the sun will not help warm us up. A renewed shot of cold Canadian air will keep temperatures in the 20s. Friday will remain chilly with abundant sunshine.

Another storm on Saturday could bring a mixed bag of precipitation with snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. There could be another 0.5”-0.75” of liquid with this storm. If that was all snow, another half a foot of snow would accumulate. But accumulations will be lower because we expect snow to mix with ice and rain. The amount of mixing will determine accumulations. One thing is for sure, this storm will add even more weight to the existing snowpack.

Icy Mix Ending

Sleet and freezing rain will be coming to an end this afternoon. This morning the shoreline got hit the hardest with freezing rain and temperatures there are now slowly rising above freezing. The rest of the state saw sleet for a good duration of the morning. Although freeing rain is also an issue inland, ice accumulations will not be enough to cause widespread downed trees and power lines.

Weather From Tuesday Night

 

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Tuesday Night - Wednesday

As of 1 PM, Bradley Airport has measured 5.3” of snow, bringing the seasonal snowfall total to 76.5”. That makes this winter the 9th snowiest on record in Windsor Locks beating the winter of 1955-56 with 76.1” of accumulation. We only need 8.4” of additional snow this winter to become the 2nd snowiest year on record.

Round one of the storm is over. Snow and sleet totals range from 4”-7” for northern Connecticut with 2”-4” in the southern half of the state where more sleet mixed in. Now there is a lull in the action with some freezing drizzle. Even though it looks quiet outside, freezing drizzle can coat up untreated roads making them slippery.

After 2 A.M, round two will start to move in with a wintry mix picking up in intensity. Although precipitation could briefly start as snow, we do not expect any additional snow accumulation for areas south of I-84. North of that line, there could be an additional coating to an inch or two. But most of what falls on Wednesday will be in the form of sleet or freezing rain. Sleet is rain that freezes before hitting the ground, forming ice pellets that bounce off your windshield. Freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact with the ground forming an icy glaze over roads, your car, trees and power lines. Most areas will start off as sleet on Wednesday with the shoreline and the southeastern Connecticut changing to plain rain as the temperature rises above freezing.

North of I-95 there will be a mix of sleet and freezing rain on Wednesday. Someone in the state could end up with a significant accumulation of ice causing power outages, downed trees and numerous accidents. An additional one in inch of sleet and freezing rain will fall, adding additional weight to roofs.

The heaviest precipitation will fall between 3 AM and 10 AM. The storm will wind down tomorrow afternoon with some lingering rain/snow/sleet before completely ending tomorrow night. But the impact after the storm will continue with flooding possible along the shore and buildings continuing to weaken/collapse under the weight of yet another storm.