Vermont-Bound

Dan Amarante is in the house tonight! He's got your latest forecast. I am away from my computer on my way to snowboard in VT!! Serious powder on the way! He'll take good care of you.

Can't wait to try out my new reverse camber board!!!

A Little White Christmas Eve, Then Ice

From the 12Z NAM BUFKIT. Read from right to left

While snow will be falling for midnight mass tonight, snow will likely change over to a period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle.  I circled in white the areas where snow growth is favored.  After that time ~3am or so, there will not be many ice crystals to start the snow growth process.  At the same time, drier air is moving in aloft (Relative humidity is the green/red shading). That means...freezing rain becomes more likely after that time.  So I'm not expecting more than a coating to an inch of snow, followed by a coating of ice. Watch for slippery spots early Christmas morning.  I'm not expecting big problems on the road with little moisture to work with.  But it doesn't take much ice to make the roads slick.

Snowing For Santa

Today is looking good for any travel and holiday plans. Sunshine this morning will give way to increasing clouds in the afternoon as a weak disturbance approaches. Light snow will move in later tonight, mixing in with a cold rain at times, especially along the shoreline. This wintry mix will linger into early tomorrow morning. Some towns could get a white Christmas just in time for Santa with a coating to an inch of accumulation inland. Any rain/snow ends early Christmas followed by clearing.

When It Rains, It Pours. Heavy Rain & Gusty Winds Friday!

Showers will develop tonight.  The highest elevations in northwest Connecticut could briefly see a few mangled snowflakes or sleet pellets. Rain will become heavy towards daybreak tomorrow, just in time for the morning rush! Minor flooding is possible in the typical poor drainage areas.  But wind isn’t the only obstacle tomorrow morning. The wind will howl out of the southwest at 20 to 30 mph and occasional gusts up to 50 mph. After a wet start to the day, drying will occur this afternoon with partial clearing.

Cold returns behind the storm Saturday and beyond with temperatures struggling through the 30s for most days next week.

A few lake effect snow showers are possible Saturday, especially in northwest Connecticut. Sunday and Monday look chilly and breezy but dry. Light snow could return Christmas morning.  Not enough to coat the ground but just enough to set the mood for the holiday!

By the way…Winter arrives tomorrow at 6:12 AM!

Behind the Scenes At FOX CT

I love our newest weather promo.  No DOPPLER 5,000,000 promos.  Just the team you trust giving you an accurate forecast without any hype.

Here Comes The Rain Again...

Most of Wednesday will turn out sunny with increasing clouds later in the afternoon as our next storm approaches. Showers arrive overnight and might briefly mix in with a few sleet pellets in the highest elevations. Rain will come down heavy at times Friday morning through midday before tapering off.   The evening commute looks dry.   A gusty northwest wind will carry a fresh shot of cold air behind the storm on Saturday.  A few lake effect snow showers are possible. High temperatures will get stuck in the 30s Saturday through ALL of next week! Brrrrrr....

Geminid Meteor Shower & A Stormy Week Ahead

Our recent stretch of beautiful December weather is almost over! Enjoy two more dry days before then a series of storms threaten to bring winter weather Sunday through Wednesday of next week.

But before we get ahead of ourselves….the Geminid meteor shower peaks tonight!  This is considered the most impressive show of the year with up to 100 meteors an hour (under perfect conditions).  The meteor shower will pick up after 10 PM before peaking at 2 AM.  The new moon will set early, providing no light interference.  The sky will remain mostly clear for the majority of the evening with some high clouds possible late.  Look for the constellation Gemini, which can be found near Sirius (the brightest star in the sky).  The constellation will rise in the northeast. Bring a hot drink and a blanket to stay warm!  Temperatures will drop into the 20s inland, low 30s for the shoreline.

Friday will be slightly milder as temperatures flirt with 50 degrees in some towns! Satuday is about 10 degrees cooler in the wake of a cold front that will set the stage for winter weather. The first disturbance looks more like a nuisance event than anything else. Light snow starts Sunday morning inland before mixing in and changing over to rain. A light accumulation is possible. The shoreline will likely start and finish with rain.

Here’s where our forecasting confidence takes a big ol’ nosedive.  Do we get a break in the action Monday and Tuesday?  OR do several disturbances blend together with a few days of cold rain and an icy mix?  For now, I think Monday and Tuesday will serve as a little break before a bigger storm (nor’easter) develops on Wednesday. If this storm tracks close enough to us, this could end up being a heavy rain and wind event for us.  But there is a lot of uncertainty in the track and timing of this event.  So just keep an eye on the forecast for Wednesday in the coming days as we put the pieces to the puzzle together. 

Vote For Fightin' Frank! ROUND TWO!

Who would win in a fight? ME or WFSB anchor Hena Daniels? Vote for Fightin' Frank on the latest CTBoom poll here! (This is not a real fight, nor do I actually win anything...AND I think Hena is awesome. This is just for fun!)

Here are some shots of me training for this epic battle...

Calm Before The Storm(s)

The next few days will be the calm before the storm…or storms.  Sunshine will mix with some high clouds again on Thursday with temperatures near average, in the low to mid 40s.  Friday is sunny and a little milder with some towns approaching the 50 degree mark.  Cooler air starts to move in Saturday, setting the stage for some winter weather.  There are several chances for a messy mix starting Sunday and lasting through Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

A disturbance on Sunday looks more like a nuisance event with light snow mixing in or changing to rain.  In fact this “storm” looks more wet than white. But a bigger nor’easter may be in the pipeline for the middle of next week.  This could be a long duration storm with more cold air available and higher snow potential.  Notice…I said potential. The timing and track of this storm is highly uncertain.  We’re still talking about something that’s about a week away and the computer models are all over the place. For now, keep an eye on the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.  Enjoy the tranquil weather and we’ll figure out the details soon enough. 

Quiet...For Now.

Quiet, tranquil weather will continue straight through the start of the weekend!

Skies will clear out tonight with temperatures tumbling into the 20s inland, low 30s for the Connecticut shoreline.

Sunshine will mix with some high clouds at times on Wednesday as a coastal storm passes well southeast of Connecticut.  Temperatures will be seasonably cool the next two days.  Then look for a brief warm up on Friday with temperatures returning to the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

Then things start to get more interesting.  Saturday looks partly cloudy and dry. But a cold front will help unlock some cold air that has been hiding to our north so far this season.  Plus, with a big blocking high over Greenland, storms will get forced to travel through the northeast.  What does this all mean?  We have the potential for just enough cold air to get some snow Sunday and Monday. How much?  Will the snow mix with cold rain?  If I had answers for you, I would only be guessing this far out.  But in terms of snow…I’m sayin’ there’s a chance!  

Is The Road Closed?

Was there a sale on signs?

Stupid Hartford busway project.

Santa Baby

Santa is a ladies man

I agreed to participate in the Chaz and AJ Toy Drive at Bridgeport’s Webster Bank Arena last Friday.  I was psyched to help collect toys for needy children.  So how did I get conned into singing Santa Baby with other ladies involved in local news?   Still trying to figure that out.  But they raised over $87,000 in toys and cash! Great job!

Funniest part about the whole thing?  This podcast from ctboom.com talking about my mean looking "handler".

You can find the video of us singing here.  Just look for the video called "Hot News Babes Sing 'Santa Baby'.

Quiet, Calm, Boring This Week. But Things Could Get More Interesting Next Week. #LongestBlogTitleEver

Periods of rain and drizzle continue tonight as a cold front approaches. Temperatures will stay in the 50s for most of the evening before dropping into the 40s around daybreak on Tuesday.

Clouds will break for sunshine Tuesday as the cold front zips through the state. Temperatures will tumble from the 40s for the morning commute, into the 30s by the time you’re sitting down for dinner. A coastal storm passing well to our south and east could graze Connecticut with some high clouds on Wednesday. Otherwise, the rest of the week looks sunny and quiet with temperatures in the 40s. Our next chance for rain or snow starts Sunday. Actually, the beginning of next week looks cooler and unsettled. Is this the pattern change winter lovers have been hoping for? No. I don’t see a prolonged period of cold. But at least one or two arctic blasts could prove promising in the next few weeks.

Long range snapshot for next Wednesday. Blocking pattern early next week could lock in enough cold for snow.
See?  Some people out there still use Window's Paint program! HA!

Wet & Mild Start To The Week

Rain will mix in with sleet at times tonight as a warm front approaches. Luckily temperatures will remain above freezing, dropping into the upper 30s to low 40s. So icy roads will not be an issue.

An umbrella is more essential than a winter jacket tomorrow. High temperatures will approach 60 degrees with periods of rain and drizzle. Winds will gust out of the southwest up to 30 mph at times. Showers will continue off and on through the evening before clearing out Tuesday. Tuesday is noticeably cooler but dry with early clouds breaking for sunshine. The rest of the week is quiet with temperatures near or above average for this time of year. The next chance of rain or snow is next weekend.

Mild With A Side of Cloudy

Hopefully you took a good mental snapshot of today’s sunshine. The next several days look dreary and wet at times. But the clouds also come with a boost in temperature. This is not good news if you were hoping to see some snow…or even just snow making weather for local ski resorts. Tonight remains chilly, for now. Clouds will thicken up as the evening progresses with temperatures dropping into the 20s inland, near 30 for the Connecticut shoreline. Monday will be mostly cloudy and mostly dry with highs in the low to mid 40s. But a few showers will develop, mainly late in the day. Showers continue off and on during Saturday, as temperatures return to the 50s. The one reprieve I see is Sunday when we could squeeze in one dry day before more rain arrives Monday. Cooler, drier weather follows for the middle of next week.

WPLR Interview This Morning

In case you missed it, here's my interview with Chaz & AJ on WPLR from this morning. I'm previewing tomorrow's Toy Drive at Webster Bank Arena. I woke up about 5 mins before the interview. I'm so NOT a morning person. But it's for a good cause!

Dust off that winter jacket!

Dust off that winter jacket.  You’re going to need it!!  After a mild start to the day with temperatures in the 50s, the cold air is sinking in!  Temperatures will tumble into the 20s tonight.  With a gusty northwest wind, it will feel like the teens!

Temperatures will start off in the 20s and 30s tomorrow morning.  Sunshine will stick around all day thanks to a large area of high pressure.  Not bad for early December!  Friday is a few degrees milder with increasing clouds. Another warm front approaches Friday night bringing showers and a return to 50 degree temperatures.  Saturday will be mild wet at times with off and on rain. But we sneak in one dry day Sunday between weather systems. Showers return Monday.

Plainville Middle School

200 6th graders?  I was nervous before my presentation to Plainville Middle School today.  But the kids were AMAZING!  They were attentive, inquisitive and smart!  I think we may have some future meteorologists in the crowd.  Thanks everyone!  Next time, I'm wearing higher heals.

Warm Front Fail

The warm up that never was

What a bust.  Today’s warm front got stuck between Meriden and Hartford.  Cold air (dense, heavy) got stuck in the valleys and never got scoured out.  The result? Record warmth in New York State with highs near 70 degrees and 40s in Hartford and Windsor Locks with dense fog and persistent drizzle.  YUCK. Even Litchfield and Torrington were milder than Hartford!  Temperatures will hold steady tonight and may even rise a few degrees as the warm front finally pushes the chill out.  Showers will develop after 2 AM as a cold front approaches.

Records warmth for many across NY and PA

Showers, dense fog and clouds early Wednesday morning will give way to sunshine. Cool air will slowly spill in behind the front.  But it will take until later in the day to get here. Temperatures will peak in the 50s early in the afternoon, then drop quickly into the 30s and 40s by dinner time.  Winds will howl out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph. The cold will really settle in Wednesday night with temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the teens.  After two cooler days, 50s return this weekend with several rounds of showers leading into next week.

Warm Again Tomorrow! Then Cooling Down.

60 degrees in December?  This isn’t record breaking warmth.  In fact, Windsor Locks was a full 10 degrees shy of the record of 67 degrees set in 2009.  Bridgeport got a little closer, just 4 degrees shy of the record set in ’09.  Still, there’s no denying this isn’t typical December weather.  Temperatures are running 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year.

Tomorrow will be just as mild as today, minus all the sunshine.  Then prepare for another cool down.

Tuesday morning will start off cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle in spots. Clouds will break for limited sun in the afternoon with a mild breeze out of the southwest.  High temperatures will range between 55 and 60 degrees. A cold front will trigger some showers early Wednesday, followed by clearing.  Cooler air will slowly leak in Wednesday with temperatures starting in the 50s at breakfast and ending in the 30s by dinner.  Bring a jacket to work and school with you so you’re prepared!

40s are in the forecast for the rest of the week with sunshine Thursday and Friday.  Showers are possible at times this weekend but the timing is not clear yet.

BTW...long range forecast is not looking good for a white Christmas.  

Record November. Mild Start to December!

Thee next couple of days will feel warm by December standards!

Dense fog Sunday morning from @RAWNUTMEG_CT

A warm front transporting that mild air into the state is causing showers to develop this evening. Showers will be around through midnight-2AM, followed by partial clearing and patchy dense fog.  Low temperatures will drop into the 40s.

Monday morning fog will burn away, revealing mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will climb into low to mid 50s. Tuesday could be even milder with some towns approaching the 60 degree mark!  Clouds will lower and thicken up as a cold front approaches.  Showers develop Tuesday night into midday Wednesday, followed by partial clearing.  Behind the front, it will feel like December again with high temperatures returning to the 40s.

On a side note…It’s official!  This November was the driest on record for Windsor Locks with .40” of precipitation!  This beats the previous record of .51” set in November 1976.  Southern Connecticut got hit harder by our early November snowstorm with 1.22” of precipitation in Bridgeport.  That wasn’t even close to the record of .36” set back in 1976.   

Chillin' Out The Next Two Days

A reinforcing shot of cold air arrives tomorrow following an arctic front. Temperatures will get stuck in the 30s for most of the state! But relief is on the way.  An approaching warm front will trigger a few rain or snow showers Friday night into Saturday morning.  A fresh coating of snow is possible (maybe an inch for northern Connecticut).  Behind the front, temperatures will soar into the 50s for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday! For December, that’s practically a heat wave!

I Smell A Record!

Even with two early season snow storms, this November could go down as the driest on record!  Windsor Locks has reported .4” of precipitation.  The current record holder is November 1976 with .51”.  I am expecting a flurry or snow shower Friday night. But a spotty snow shower will likely not be enough to keep us from setting a new record. Today will be pleasant with highs in the 40s and a mix of sun and clouds.  Friday and Saturday are cooler and wintry, followed by a return to 50s next week.

Fun Football Promo!

Yeah, I throw like a girl.

Photoshoot In The Snow

Seriously...I think my iPhone takes better pictures than my expensive digital camera. Since temperatures were nice and "mild" for this storm, it was a pleasure to take a moment and snap a few pics of the second snowfall of the season....even if it wasn't much.

A Touch Of Snow...So What's Next?

Connecticut has picked up anywhere from a coating to 3” of snow. Snow is winding down in central and western Connecticut. But eastern Connecticut (Windham, Tolland and New London Counties) will continue to see steady snow through 9-11 PM. Otherwise, a few lingering flurries are possible through the overnight hours.

Temperatures were above freezing all day during the snow storm which is fantastic because that kept the roads wet (instead of white). But tonight any untreated roads and sidewalks can refreeze causing areas of black ice tonight into tomorrow morning.

Snow will continue tomorrow morning into southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Connecticut will be dry, but a winter chill remains. A gusty northwest wind will make temperatures feel like they’re stuck in the 20s and 30s all day. Partial sunshine is in the forecast the next two days with a renewed shot of cold air on Friday. A brief rain or snow shower is possible Saturday before a warm up! Temperatures will once again take a run at the 50 degree mark Sunday and Monday! There are no big storms in sight.

Coating to 2" For Most!

A coating to 2" has accumulated for most with the lower amounts in the CT river Valley and the shoreline. Some isolated higher amounts are still possible in eastern CT, closer to 3". The shoreline could still pick up a quick inch of snow.

 A winter weather advisory is in effect interior southern Connecticut. I'm not sure why they issued it so late in the day!  There are no changes to the forecast.

Temperatures will remain above freezing for the rest of the commute with most accumulation on non paved surfaces. Icy spots later tonight as temps drop into the 20s.

A Coating to 2"

At 11:38 PM: After looking at the american models tonight, I would like to add....some spots in eastern CT could pick up to 3" on the back side of the storm as it's pulling away.  Still 1"-2" for most.  I will need major therapy if there are any "surprises" from this storm. 

Tomorrow’s “storm” will be a fast mover with snow developing in the morning and tapering off around the evening commute.    As far as winter storms in New England go, this will be a low impact event. Snow will remain light to occasionally moderate with temperatures remaining above freezing for most of the day! Along the shoreline, temperatures might hit 40 degrees where snow could mix with rain at times. A coating to 2” of accumulation is possible with icy spots tomorrow night as temperatures dip below freezing.

Unimpressed With Tuesday's Snow "Storm"

Right on cue, winter arrived the weekend after Thanksgiving and the chill will stick around all week.

Sunshine will start off the work week thanks to high pressure gliding by to the south.  Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 40s.  

Although there is a chance for snow on Tuesday, this looks like a low impact event with little or no accumulation.  A weak wave of low pressure will pass well to the south bringing the state a glancing blow. Light snow will develop Tuesday, mixing with rain in spots along the shoreline.  A coating to an inch is possible, mainly in southern Connecticut.  The northern half of the state might stay dry if the storm continues to trend away from the nutmeg state. Sunshine returns Wednesday.  But the day will be blustery and cold with temperatures fighting to hit the 40 degree mark.  

Thanksgiving On My Mind....

Yeah this is a screen grab from the news at 10 tonight.  I have no shame!

One More Day In The 50s, Then BRRRRR

Early morning Black Friday shoppers (crazies) should dress for temperatures in the 30s with patchy fog.  Full sunshine will promote quick warming with mid 50s by the afternoon.  Friday will be the last semi-mild day before a pattern change.  A strong cold front tomorrow night will bring clouds and the chance for a shower in spots.  Behind the front, temperatures will get stuck in the 40s all the way through next week.

There is a lot of uncertainty regarding a storm slated for late Tuesday into Wednesday.  The computer models are all over the place with the track and intensity of the storm. It could bring mainly rain, a wintry mix, or a few flurries.  We should have a better handle on the forecast tomorrow.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Clouds Fade For The Big Feast

I love gravy. Now that we got that out of the way...

Parts of the state will wake up to low clouds and fog on Thanksgiving Day.  Not to fear. Any leftover moisture will burn away revealing mostly sunny skies.  Temperatures will continue their warming trend, climbing into the low to mid 50s on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. A cold front early Saturday will bring a few showers, followed by a winter chill for the remainder of the weekend. The next storm to watch could be a long duration event on Tuesday and Wednesday with a wintry mix possible.

Milder For Now...

Almost like flipping a light switch… On the Saturday after Thanksgiving, fall weather gets replaced by winter cold.  A strong cold front will approach Friday night into Saturday morning, accompanied by a brief rain or snow shower. Before then, our tranquil weather pattern will continue. Travelers will be thankful for dry roads today with a mix of sun and clouds. On Thanksgiving, morning clouds and fog will break for sunshine. Thursday and Friday are the last days in the 50s before the cool down.

Ski & Travel Expo In Cromwell!

Thanks to everyone who came to say hi at the Ski & Travel Expo this weekend!

Scaring people at the FOX booth.

No Big Storms In Sight...Just Lots Of Turkey

If you have a weather station at home, check out how high the barometric pressure is.  High pressure means nice, dry weather and that trend will continue through Friday. A series of minor disturbances will bring varying amounts of clouds and sun the next few days.  But look for a little warming trend with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s on Thanksgiving and Friday. A cold front will bring a chance for a brief rain or snow shower followed by blustery and cooler weather Saturday and beyond.

M.O.T.S.

M.O.T.S.  is not a complicated weather term.  It stands for More Of The Same.

The weather this week remains boring for a meteorologist but great for your Thanksgiving travel plans!  High pressure remains stuck in northern New England keeping the rain (and snow) away.  A storm system spinning off the coast of the Carolinas will stay well southeast of New England. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies through Thanksgiving. Temperatures will warm up a few degrees, peaking in the mid 50s Thursday and Friday.  A cold front approaches on Saturday bringing a brief rain or snow shower and a cool down.

Quiet Stretch In November

Leonids in Connecticut November, 2009
Pic courtesy of CTCameraeye.com

After Sandy and November snow, we deserve a little peace and quiet in the weather department!

After a few days of filtered sun, the clouds are moving out!  Clear skies tonight will create ideal conditions to view the Leonid meteor shower. Under ideal conditions, one can watch 10-20 meteors per hour.

 The Leonid meteor shower occurs every year when the earth passes through debris from the comet Tempel Tuttle. Look to the eastern sky after midnight.  Meteors will appear to radiate out of the constellation Leo (hence the name Leo-nids).  As a bonus for viewing, the crescent moon will have set in the west before the peak.

Now onto the weekend forecast.  Trust me, you’re going to like it. Sunshine will be hard at work tomorrow boosting the temperature to 50 degrees in some towns (hey, we’ll take it). Sunday will be a carbon copy with blue skies. A few more puffy clouds will mix in with the sun on Monday, Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry roads are in the forecast for Thanksgiving travel plans.  Even if you’re flying somewhere, most of the country will remain dry with little or no weather related travel days! 

12Z Euro looking at Wednesday morning.
Rain/snow in the Pacific NW but dry
EVERYWHERE ELSE? What are the chances of that?

Thanksgiving Storm?

Last night's European computer model run shows a nor'easter with rain
and strong winds Wednesday and Thursday

There is already a lot of hype surrounding a storm around or after Thanksgiving.  Normally, I don't even mention storms 7-8 days out because the forecast can change dramatically in that amount of time. But since people are inquiring, I'm happy to give you my opinion.

Don't worry about it.

Sunday, yesterday and even early this morning (see above) the European model was showing a cut off low with a long duration nor'easter. Today both the Euro and the GFS show the same storm head well out to sea.  The only impact in this case would be some clouds and a light breeze.  

This doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods. When forecasting, I like to look for trends in the computer models.  If we see a storm wavering back and forth between a hit and a miss then our confidence is low.  We're looking for run to run consistency here.  And right now...we don't have any!  Either way, the storm never looked "snowy" to me. This was primarily a rain and wind event.

We're moving in the right direction.  Let's keep it that way!

The afternoon run of the GFS (18Z)

The morning run of the Euro (12Z)

Snow From Space

You're not looking at clouds over Connecticut, Long Island and New Jersey.

This is a picture of snow from space! The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) got the shot on November 9 after our early season storm.  Some of the snow had already melted so you can really see which areas got hit the hardest!

For more head to the NASA website!

Another Prom Picture

Look for this to run as part of a new ad in Thursday's Courant!

Happy Halloween...Two Weeks Later

Sandy zapped the fun out of Halloween.  But I eventually had the chance to celebrate by dressing up as Sookie Stackhouse from the HBO's series True Blood!!  I got the outfit direct from HBO along with a fresh bottle of synthetic blood.  It tastes like orange soda!

One More Mild Day!

You don't need a meteorologist to find the cold front
heading this way!

Great weather for the Veterans today with temperatures soaring through the 60s!  This felt especially mild after our early taste of winter. We get one more warm day to enjoy with before a cold front brings us back to reality.

Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40s with patchy fog and low clouds developing.

Low clouds and fog will burn away revealing partial sunshine tomorrow.  In some towns, the clouds may not break until the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 60s.  A cold front will bring clouds and scattered showers on Tuesday, followed by cooler weather for the middle and end of the week.  Temperatures will get stuck in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday.  But at least the weather will cooperate with lots of sun!

The ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting) is one of the computer models we love right now in the weather center because it continues to out forecast our American models. Hear that NWS?  We have some catching up to do!  Anyway, the Euro is showing the potential for another nor'easter by the middle of next week.  Snow? Rain?Right now rain is more likely but it's too early to make that call. The storm could disappear entirely by then. But if the storm remains in the forecast for a week and a half, it could cause problems for travels around Thanksgiving.

The Euro for next Wednesday morning.

Record November Snow for Bridgeport

The storm last week set a record in Bridgeport as the snowiest November storm on record with 8.3" on November 7-8. This breaks the old record of 6.6" set back on November 22-23, 1989.

Can I go back to erasing this storm from my memory now? Thanks.

Flow State

This weekend I went to see "Warren Miller's Flow State" at the Bushnell.  I didn't understand the whole concept.  Why am I going to a movie theater to watch a video of people skiingand snowboarding?  I can do that all day on YouTube.

But for many across the country, Flow State serves as the unofficial kick start to the winter season!  You are not encouraged to remain quiet. People cheer, oooooooh and ahhhhh as world class athletes drop in on insane mountains in exotic locations . Witty dialogue, state of the art cinematography and perfect music combine to get you amped for winter!

This is my third season snowboarding and I can't wait to get on the mountain!

 

First Snow Storm

I think Sandy was an easier forecast than this nor’easter. I underestimated snowfall totals.   I was wrong. I’ll lament for weeks. No, really.  I know you make decisions about your day and your family based on my forecasts.  I take that responsibility seriously. I'm sorry some of you were unprepared for this storm.. But I guess this is how you get better as a forecaster. Analyze.  Figure out where the forecast went wrong, don't make the same mistake twice.

 Heavy bands of snow set up in southwest CT and refused to leave.

The first 1-2 hours of this storm brought a quick two inches of snow to central and western CT.  Sure, most of it was on grassy surfaces.  But when snow comes down heavy enough, it can stick to the ground even with temperatures above freezing!  With temperatures in the 20s tonight, more snow will have a chance to stick.  We are getting many reports of accidents and traffic delays.

A dry punch of air is working into western Connecticut. This isn’t the end but it’s the beginning of the end. Snow will wind down overnight. But winds will continue to blow the snow around.  After a few lingering rain or snow showers during the first half of the day, we should begin the drying process in the afternoon.  Highs: 40s.

Coastal Flooding:

As expected (ahem, we got some stuff right), flooding was not as bad as the NWS forecast. In Bridgeport the water levels peaked at 8.75'. That's a storm surge of 3.5' with minor flooding.  The next high tide is around 5:30 AM with minor flooding in the forecast once more.  This time water levels will only top 8.5'.

Winds:

Winds were also lighter than forecast by the NWS.  Windsor Locks had the highest gust to 45 mph.  But the high wind warning along the shoreline never verified. "A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE." I'm sure you're fine with that. 

I don't know about you but after the last two weeks...I'm exhausted!

Bad Timing: First Flakes Of the Season

Tomorrow’s nor’easter looks less impressive for us here in Connecticut.  This is not a storm we will remember a year from now or even a month from now.  BUT…the timing will be bad for the areas still recovering from Sandy. Thousands remain in the dark on the shoreline!  Additionally, with arrival in the afternoon, roads could become slippery for the commute.

Forecast changes:

The forecast track for the storm has shifted east.  Here’s the good news:  the worst winds and the heaviest precipitation also shifted east.  Here’s the bad news: now Connecticut is in the coldest part of the storm with snow possible right down to the shoreline!

Impacts:

Slippery spots for the afternoon and evening commute tomorrow.  Widely scattered power outages caused by gusty winds.  Minor coastal flooding.

Timing:
Tomorrow morning: Clouds thicken up.  No problems for the commute.

Tomorrow afternoon: Snow and rain developing from southeast to northwest. Winds pick up (out of the northeast…that’s why we call it a nor’easter).  Any snow that falls is not likely to stick for an extended period of time.  But roads could get snow covered and slick for a little while tomorrow afternoon/evening.   It’s possible that some schools have early dismissal. A slushy coating is possible with up to 2”-3” in areas that are hardest hit (hard to pinpoint with uncertainties in the storm's track). After the initial burst of rain and snow, the rest of the precipitation with this storm looks light. Winds gusts will reach up to 40 mph inland, 50 mph for the shoreline.

Tomorrow evening: Snow changes to light rain and freezing rain. 

Thursday morning: A few leftover showers, mostly cloudy. The snow is almost entirely melted with nothing to a small slushy compact coating on non paved surfaces.

Coastal Flooding: 

The forecast water level in Bridgeport during
the nor'easter on Wednesday/Thursday

With a persistent easterly wind, another bout of coastal flooding is in the forecast.  We (Bob Cox, Geoff Fox and I) happen to think the NWS storm tide forecast is a little high.  They are projecting Long Island Sound tides 4-5 feet  above normal for tomorrow afternoon and evening. The forecast water level in Bridgeport is 11.75-12.25’ with moderate flooding.  I think minor flooding is more likely with a lower monthly tide cycle and the strongest winds staying well offshore.  Either way, we are not expecting flooding to be even close to what occurred during Sandy. But this will add insult to injury and slow clean up efforts along the shore.

The National Weather Service in Taunton, MA
made this graphic to summarize the storm

Typical Fall Nor'easter, Bad Timing.

Sunny and chilly for election day!  Temperatures will start in the 20s…right down to the Connecticut shoreline with the coldest air we have seen so far this season. Afternoon highs will be trapped in the 40s.  That’s winter jacket weather for me!

Now for this nor’easter.  Ugh. This isn’t an incredibly damaging storm.  It should be on par with a normal fall nor’easter.  But the timing sucks (excuse my choice of words).  We’re still cleaning from Sandy!

Timing: Wednesday afternoon-Thursday.  When the storm first arrives, rain may mix in or change over to a brief burst of wet snow or sleet. The models seem colder today.  But I wouldn’t be surprised if they flip flopped back to a warmer solution tomorrow.  Either way, a small accumulation is possible for the hill towns or areas north of I-84 on the order of a coating to an inch or two.  Most of us get zero accumulation with a warm ground and a change back to rain. Even so…you may want to mentally prepare to see your first flakes of the season. Northeast winds increase during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.  Rain and wind down on Thursday.

Coastal Flooding: 

A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued with minor to moderate coastal flooding possible.  Tidal departures are forecast by the National Weather Service at 3-4 feet.  That means, water can rise 3-4 feet higher than the normal high or low tide cycle.  The bad news: Beaches took a beating from Sandy, reducing, relocating or eliminating protective barriers like sand dunes.  This leaves the shoreline more vulnerable than usual. The good news: tides will be astronomically low (instead of high like they were in Sandy).  This nor’easter is not likely to cause additional flood damage.  But the storm will hamper clean up efforts and slow progress for some shoreline communities that were recently hit hard. Click here for town specific forecastwater levels.

Winds:

A High Wind Watch is in effect for the southern half of the state: New London, Fairfield, Middlesex and New Haven counties. Sustained winds will be between 25-35 mph.  But higher gusts could top 50-60 mph on the shoreline.  Inland, gusts could get up to 40-45 mph in the higher elevations with sustained winds 20-30 mph. A few additional scattered outages are possible as loose tree limbs fall.  This will also slow restoration efforts for line crews who are unable to get into the bucket trucks in wind gusts that exceed 40 mph. 

Coldest Air Of The Season!

This is another chilly evening for the 47,000+ (as of 7:30 PM) Connecticut households without power.   Temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s inland, low 30s for the shoreline. Here’s the icing on the cake…tomorrow looks even colder!

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures will rebound into the 40s and low 50s tomorrow with mostly sunny skies. Monday night will be the coldest evening of the season so far with temperatures sinking into the 20s statewide.  Tuesday remains cool and dry with abundant sunshine.

Clouds will increase Wednesday morning as a storm moves up the east coast. This is the nor’easter you keep hearing about on the news.  Every time I see a national story about Sandy’s aftermath, it is always followed by “and to top it all off…a winter nor’easter threatens by the middle of next week”.  It’s misleading.  Sure, accumulating snow is possible in upstate New York, northern New England and the higher terrain of western Massachusetts.  But New Jersey is not getting any snow.  Neither is New York City.

European model, 850 mb heights,
 vorticity & winds

For us here in Connecticut, this will primarily be a rain and wind event!  Not fun…even without the prospects snow.  Rain will develop in the afternoon or evening on Wednesday, continuing into Thursday.  Wind gusts on the shoreline could top 50 mph.  Some wet snow might mix in for the northwest hills.  But not enough to get nervous about.  Minor coastal flooding is possible depending on the duration of the event with a consistent easterly wind. We will fine tune the details to the forecast as we get a little closer.  In the meantime, have your umbrella ready.

Sandy Brings Record Storm Surge & Damaging Winds

 Cosey Beach in East Haven from Hurricane Sandy, just a year after the area was devastated by Irene. Pic by Michael McAndrews, to see more visit CTNOW.com

I got to work at noon on Monday.  After spending nearly a week and a half tracking Sandy’s every move, it was finally time to see if the monstrous storm would behave as forecast.  I wanted to be wrong!

At noon Sandy was moving faster than the official National Hurricane Center track.  I wondered if that meant the winds would diminish earlier too.  At 4 PM there were only 100,000 outages (little compared to Irene). Wind gusts reached 65 miles an hour in Groton.  But inland gusts were unimpressive. The fast moving winds in the upper atmosphere were not mixing down to the ground.

Not yet…

As the center of the storm moved onto the New Jersey coast, a warm front followed. In two hours, the temperature climbed eight degrees in Hartford.  The dew point came up too. Squall lines in the feeder bands provided enough turbulence in the atmosphere to mix those higher winds to the surface. So our peak wind gusts did not occur until after Sandy made landfall!  Power outages increased exponentially.

The forecast for coastal flooding was dead on. But I don’t take credit for that.  Local meteorologists like myself rely on the National Weather Service’s storm surge predictions. Bridgeport set a new record storm tide of 13.3’, beating the 12.1’ storm tide during Irene and the record of 12.3’ set back in the Hurricane of 1938. Eastern Long Island sound faired a little better.  New London’s storm time was 8.04’.  This did not break the record of 10.6’ set in the Hurricane of ’38 or the flooding during Hurricane Donna in 1954.

The European model nailed this forecast...again.

Last week I was skeptical.  Can you blame me?  Sandy’s track was unprecedented.  An October hurricane in Connecticut?  These storms normally bend harmlessly out to sea! 1000 miles of tropical storm winds? A hurricane merging with the polar jet stream? Hurricanes don’t normally strengthen after moving into cooler water! If I was at the casino two weeks ago…I’d put all my money on Sandy being a bust.

But Sandy made history.

Millions are without power including 600,000+ people here in Connecticut
Winds gusted up to 76 mph in Bridgeport

The snow in West Virginia is being measured in FEET

Battery Park City (my home town) experienced record storm surge, flooding the subways

And Sandy isn't done yet....

Conditions Heading Downhill Already

Winds are already gusting to 30 mph and Sandy is 450 miles away.  That's telling...

The primary concerns for this storm are damaging winds and coastal flooding.  Rain totals will not be any more than we see during a normal fall storm (1"-3"). But winds will gust higher than they did during Irene.  Widespread outages are likely, similar to the number of outages experienced during Irene.  Ugh. And coastal flooding will not only beat Irene, but some towns could experience record flooding.

Everyone keeps saying "this is a long duration event".  Yes.  Clouds, rain, and breezy conditions will stick around through Thursday or Friday.  But the duration of the most damaging wind gusts to 60+ mph will be from 2 PM-midnight on Monday.

Conditions will go downhill tonight and tomorrow.  Get to wherever you want to be for the night by noon tomorrow. At that time, gusts will already be up to 50 mph for the shoreline, 35 mph inland and increasing.  Peak winds inland could top 60-70 mph, 70-80 mph along the shore. After midnight, winds will decrease quickly.

Here are the forecast tidal departures:
Tonight: 2' - 3' above high tide
Tomorrow morning: (9 am-noon) 3' - 5' above high tide
Tomorrow night: 6'-11' above high tide, near or above record levels!

As I stated in my previous blog post, these numbers are higher than the flooding experienced during Irene!  Also... additional flooding is possible along rivers and tributaries that link up to the Long Island Sound all the way up to I-95.

I wish I had time to write more. Please check out the news at 10 tonight on WCCT and on FOX CT tonight after the game!

Record Coastal Flooding Forecast As Sandy Nears

COASTAL FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN!

The National Weather Service will not issue any hurricane warnings for Sandy.  Don't let your guard down. The storm may not officially be "tropical" by landfall Tuesday morning, but it will be every bit as powerful.  I worry this will only cause confusion. But it’s not my call to make. 

Flood Watches have been issued Inland, Coastal Flood Warnings &
High Surf Advisories for the shoreline. 

Sandy is likely to remain at or near hurricane strength during the next day or so before interacting with a strong trough and cold front moving into the eastern United States. As that happens the storm will actually strengthen (which is not something that normally happens).

TIMING: 
A few showers could sneak in Sunday night.  Conditions deteriorate on Monday with the heaviest rain and strongest winds Monday night into Tuesday morning. Gusty winds continue through Wednesday morning. Showers linger off and on into Thursday.  So this is a long duration event!

STORM SURGE:

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water due to a storm. Storm tide is the water level rise due to storm surge plus astronomical tides. The forecast storm tide for Sandy is higher than Irene and forecast to exceed record levels!  Please follow evacuation orders if they are issued.

Bridgeport Storm tide for Irene: 12.08’, 4.44’ storm surge
Bridgeport forecast for Sandy: 14.18’, 6.88’ storm surge

New London Storm tide for Irene: 6.55’, 3.49’ storm surge
New London forecast for Sandy:8.11, 2.45’ storm surge

5-8 foot waves are possible for eastern facing portions of Long Island Sound.  Minor coastal flooding is possible with the evening high tide on Sunday. Widespread moderate flooding is likely on Monday morning.  And major coastal flooding is possible Monday night with the high tide cycle. Moderate to major coastal flooding will continue through Tuesday afternoon.

WINDS:

Winds will howl out of the northeast sustained 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. Hurricane force wind gusts ~74 mph can’t be ruled out.  It all depends on where the center of Sandy tracks.  If Sandy nudges north, the stronger winds will follow.

Peak wind gusts during Irene were 58 mph in Bridgeport.  Inland, 44 mph in Windsor Locks.  That doesn’t sound impressive.  But those winds were enough to cause over 700,000 power outages!  No matter what track this storm takes, the large wind field could bring a similar number of outages.

THE TRACK:

           

Right now the National Hurricane Center track takes Sandy across the southern tip of New Jersey on Tuesday morning. The strongest winds will be to the north and west of the storm’s track, the heaviest rain will be to the southwest of the storm’s center. 

RAINFALL:

1"-3" of rain is expected with the storm with up to 4" in spots. I don’t think inland flooding will be a major issue like it was during Irene.  At least not here in New England.  The heaviest rain will stay to our southwest.  But as rain from northern New England flows downstream, some flooding is possible

Dan Amarante will be on FOX tonight with an update after the baseball game.  Geoff Fox and I will be starting team coverage on Sunday.  Be safe and stay up to date on the forecast as much as possible!