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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

First Snow Storm

I think Sandy was an easier forecast than this nor’easter. I underestimated snowfall totals.   I was wrong. I’ll lament for weeks. No, really.  I know you make decisions about your day and your family based on my forecasts.  I take that responsibility seriously. I'm sorry some of you were unprepared for this storm.. But I guess this is how you get better as a forecaster. Analyze.  Figure out where the forecast went wrong, don't make the same mistake twice.


 Heavy bands of snow set up in southwest CT and refused to leave.

The first 1-2 hours of this storm brought a quick two inches of snow to central and western CT.  Sure, most of it was on grassy surfaces.  But when snow comes down heavy enough, it can stick to the ground even with temperatures above freezing!  With temperatures in the 20s tonight, more snow will have a chance to stick.  We are getting many reports of accidents and traffic delays.

A dry punch of air is working into western Connecticut. This isn’t the end but it’s the beginning of the end. Snow will wind down overnight. But winds will continue to blow the snow around.  After a few lingering rain or snow showers during the first half of the day, we should begin the drying process in the afternoon.  Highs: 40s.

Coastal Flooding:

As expected (ahem, we got some stuff right), flooding was not as bad as the NWS forecast. In Bridgeport the water levels peaked at 8.75'. That's a storm surge of 3.5' with minor flooding.  The next high tide is around 5:30 AM with minor flooding in the forecast once more.  This time water levels will only top 8.5'.

Winds:

Winds were also lighter than forecast by the NWS.  Windsor Locks had the highest gust to 45 mph.  But the high wind warning along the shoreline never verified. "A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE." I'm sure you're fine with that. 

I don't know about you but after the last two weeks...I'm exhausted!

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