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Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Thanksgiving Storm?

Last night's European computer model run shows a nor'easter with rain
and strong winds Wednesday and Thursday
There is already a lot of hype surrounding a storm around or after Thanksgiving.  Normally, I don't even mention storms 7-8 days out because the forecast can change dramatically in that amount of time. But since people are inquiring, I'm happy to give you my opinion.

Don't worry about it.

Sunday, yesterday and even early this morning (see above) the European model was showing a cut off low with a long duration nor'easter. Today both the Euro and the GFS show the same storm head well out to sea.  The only impact in this case would be some clouds and a light breeze.  

This doesn't mean we're completely out of the woods. When forecasting, I like to look for trends in the computer models.  If we see a storm wavering back and forth between a hit and a miss then our confidence is low.  We're looking for run to run consistency here.  And right now...we don't have any!  Either way, the storm never looked "snowy" to me. This was primarily a rain and wind event.

We're moving in the right direction.  Let's keep it that way!


The afternoon run of the GFS (18Z)

The morning run of the Euro (12Z)

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