From the SPC (which has placed CT in the moderate risk for severe weather):
...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND... CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR. AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.
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