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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Significant Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow


 From the SPC (which has placed CT in the moderate risk for severe weather):



   
   ...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
   NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO
   THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED
   UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR.
   
   AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
   BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH
   OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH
   WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
   FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND
   SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP
   ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS
   CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT
   CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE
   CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.

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