Snow Totals

This is how much snow already fell across the state! You can compare it to the snow forecast from the blog posts below. The milder air and a southeast wind caused mainly rain along the shoreline with very little sleet mixing in. Above freezing temperatures helped melt a lot of the snow on contact with paved surfaces. The exception was Litchfield County and some of our higher elevation areas where roads were snow covered (temps fell below freezing there). State Police say they responded to 100's of minor accidents during the storm.

The Worst Is Over, But We're Not Done Yet

2”-5” have already accumulated around and north of the I-84 corridor with a slushy coating to an inch or two in southern Connecticut. Most of the accumulating snow is over. A lull in the action is occurring right now with a light wintry mix of sleet and rain.

But another round of heavier rain/sleet/snow will move back in around or after midnight. Since milder air has already moved into the upper levels of the atmosphere, most additional precipitation will be sleet, rain or freezing rain. But if precipitation comes down heavy enough we may end up switching back to snow for a little while. An additional coating to an inch or two is possible overnight.

As our first storm fades, another coastal low will intensify tomorrow. This will bring northern New England another batch of heavy snow. But we’ll be on the southern fringe of precipitation with periods of snow, sleet and rain. Another coating of snow is possible, with an additional 1”-2” in northern Connecticut. This could cause more travel issues for the morning and evening commutes tomorrow. I wouldn't count on school delays or early dismissals this time around.

Here are some snowfall totals:

Snow Forecast Map For Wednesday

The shoreline will start mixing with rain first, holding back snow accumulations. Most of inland Connecticut will get 2"-5" of snow. Along the Massachusettes border, mixing will take longer with 6" possible in far northern Litchfield, Tolland and Windham Counties. North of the CT border, up to 10"!

Timing: Wednesday morning will be dry for the commute with snow breaking out in the afternoon everywhere, continuing into the evening commute. Snow will change to rain along the shoreline Wednesday in the late afternoon or evening. Snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain inland Wednesday night. Then a lingering light wintry mix will continue into Thursday. A small additional accumulation is possible in northern Connecticut on Thursday.

Snow Update!

I just had a chance to look at the morning model runs. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Wednesday (except for the immediate shoreline). Snow still looks like it starts during the afternoon. I see signs that we could get into mesoscale banding in parts of the state. I still think we start with snow then change to a wintry mix inland (sleet, freezing rain) with a change to rain on the immediate shoreline. Because we could get a decent thump of snow before we change to a mix, we could see more snow than I initially thought. 2"-5" or 3"-6" may be more appropriate. I'll be on the News at 4 with an update!

Update on Wednesday-Thursday

I’m waiting for this crazy NASCAR race to end. I’m starting to get loopy!! But I had a chance to check the 00Z model runs! My thinking has not changed. BUT I wanted to write a less technical discussion for the people who don’t like reading the geekiness from my previous blog post.

Timing:Wednesday morning will be dry for the commute with snow breaking out in the afternoon everywhere, continuing into the evening commute. Snow will change to rain along the shoreline Wednesday night around or after the commute. Snow will change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain inland Wednesday night. Then a lingering light wintry mix will continue into Thursday.

Accumulations: Right now I’m thinking 1”-4. If the NAM is right (which I think is a hair too cold, 2”-5” will verify). Not a lot of snow but the arrival time will be less than ideal with roads deteriorating during the afternoon and evening.

Yesterday it looked like we could get additional snow on Thursday with a secondary coastal storm taking over. But the latest model runs show that storm takes too long to intensify. So that’s why I think we still see a light wintry mix but little or no accumulation on the back end. Thursday morning could be a little sloppy. But I’m more worried about Wednesday night.

Wintry Mess Wednesday & Thursday

Here are some of my thoughts regarding Wednesday-Thursday’s series of storms.

I am not worried about the morning commute on Wednesday. But Wednesday evening’s drive could be a mess! Clouds will lower and thicken during the morning on Wednesday. The timing has slowed down a little from yesterday. Snow will likely develop during the afternoon and it could be moderate to heavy for some during the drive home from work. As the evening progresses, a southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will cause warm air to invade. This will change snow over to sleet, freezing rain and rain. The GFS changes everyone to rain after 7 PM. The NAM (which deals better with cold air damming) keeps a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain through the evening. Both solutions show 1”-3” or 2”-4” inches on the front side of the storm before the changeover. Either way I would avoid driving on Wednesday night!

Then we have to watch Thursday for another possible changeover to snow. This will be triggered by a second disturbance. But right now the models are trending towards a less developed and disorganized secondary storm. So even if we do get more snow it may just be another coating to an inch with a light wintry mix scattered throughout the day.

North of the Massachusetts pike the threat for big snow accumulations is greater where less mixing is expected. Obviously a small change in track and timing can alter the forecast. But everyone always asks me what I’m thinking. And these are my current thoughts! I’ll keep you posted!

Mild Start Before Winter Returns

Tonight will be chilly with clear skies and temperatures plummeting into the teens and twenties. After a cold start to the day tomorrow, you can shed some layers in the afternoon. A southwest breeze at ten to twenty miles per hour will pump in mild air. Temperatures will once again crack the fifty degree mark! Morning sun will mix with afternoon clouds. Tuesday will be breezy and cooler with plenty of sunshine and temperatures returning to the forties. Then after a mild start to the week, winter returns! Prepare for a long duration storm on Wednesday and Thursday with a mix of snow, sleet and rain. The track of the storm will determine how much snow we get. This doesn’t look like a big snow maker. But no matter what happens it looks like two messy travel days.

Watching Next Wednesday

We could see another nusiance snow event in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. Of course being five days from now, the computer models are arguing over a warmer/wetter (GFS) and a cooler/snowier (ECMWF) solution.

On the surface map as the storm approaches, high pressure will sit over eastern Canada. That's something we look for as meteorologists to help lock in the cold air. The GFS has one round of precip moving through on Wednesday as mainly rain. The Euro has two rounds of precip, one on Wednesday and the other on Thursday.

It's way too soon to nail down any solution. You know how much these things change in just a matter of hours, let alone 5 days. But you can bet I'll be watching this for you.

Check out the high in eastern Canada on the surface map taken from the 12Z GFS below.

1"-4" All The Way To The Shore. WOW!

Waking up to another busted forecast. Lovely. Here's what we got right: the timing of the storm, the impact (it would be fast moving but would hit during the commute). There would be slippery spots and school delays. Then we forecast conditions would improve as temperatures climbed above freezing. That was all true.

Here's what we got wrong. Snow accumulations were higher than expected, especially along the shoreline!! A few hours of mesoscale banding and heavy snow was enough to stick...even after a 50-60 degree day! Impressive! Sorry if my forecast ruined any part of your day. I saw some banding potential last night and gave it a quick mention. I guess I should have emphasized the uncertainty more. I never would have made a forecast map that had 4" down to the shoreline!

Map of snow totals

It's interesting to get feedback from viewers. I have received e-mails thanking me for getting the forecast right and others making fun of meteorologists. I hate the second kind.

From Warm To White!? Friday Morning Snow.

From record warmth to snow? Bridgeport set a new daily record high temperature today. 60 degrees beat the old record of 57 set back in 1990.

So why are we talking about snow? This seems like a mistake. But with cold air moving in a mix of rain, wet snow and sleet will break overnight into early tomorrow. We are not expecting a lot of snow but the timing of this storm couldn’t be worse…hitting right during the morning commute. New model runs suggest moderate to possibly heavy snow inland for a few hours leading up to and during the commute. Even though the ground is warm and a lot of snow should melt when it hits the ground, if snow comes down heavy enough it could cause slippery spots and school delays.

I’m still working on snowfall accumulations. The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) worries me with 4”-6”in the hills and 2”-4” for much of inland Connecticut. The NAM is in line with that but the Euro and GFS are a little warmer with a coating to 1” inland and 1”-3” in the hills. Because the models have overforecasted snow/cold so many times this winter, I’m leaning towards the GFS and Euro. I’ll keep looking at the models and I’ll update you tonight on the news at 10 with my final thoughts!!

Here's the HRRR for the snow lover's wishcast: