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Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Surprisingly Annoying Forecast

With temps in the 40s today we really started chipping away at the snow pack.  But any wet or slushy roadways could turn into ice overnight as temperatures tumble into the 20s with clearing skies.

Black ice will be an issue during the Wednesday morning drive.  But temperatures will rebound in the afternoon (near 40 degrees) contributing to more snow melt and slush.  Clouds will increase throughout the day as a quick moving coastal storm approaches. A period of snow is possible later Wednesday night. HERE IS THE ANNOYING PART!  The models have been back and forth with the idea of snow for Wednesday night. The American models have been flip flopping on snow amounts with the latest trend towards 1"-7" of snow in CT!!!  The European model has consistently been showing a few flurries or a miss.  Normally I would just go with the Euro (given it's impeccable track record).  But there is a lot of lightning in the storm currently in the gulf coast states.  And the one thing computer models have a tough handle on is convection (or strorms).  So for now I'll go somewhere in the middle with this forecast (which I hate doing) and we'll see how things end up trending tomorrow. Again...this is annoying for such a small storm!!

Most of the state should get little or no accumulation with a coating to an inch possible.  Extreme southeastern Connecticut could get up to two or three inches, but it certainly won’t create any major problems.

Any snow should stop before sunrise on Valentine’s Day.  The rest of the day looks sunny and mild with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Friday will be even milder with temps climbing into the upper 40s. Then winter cold seeps back in over the weekend.  COLD but not stormy.  Right now a big coastal storm developing over the weekend is trending out to sea.  We need to keep an eye on this storm just in case it trends back west again. But for now the weekend looks decent!

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