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Thursday, February 14, 2013

Saturday Scenarios

Friday afternoon will be milder than any day this week with temps in the mid to upper 40s. As I write this, Saturday is a low confidence forecast. Depending on which computer model you believe, Connecticut could get a few inches of snow, a half a foot of snow or none at all. Looking at the atmospheric set-up, I think a period of snow is most likely Saturday with one to three inches of accumulation (and a bigger coastal storm staying out to sea).
12Z (morning) GFS...Time to dig out again! Parts of CT 6"+
18Z (afternoon) GFS: Snow showers. Coating -1" Quite a change from one model run to the next!
12 Z ECMWF (Euro): 1"-3" 4 in spots. 
18Z NAM: A MISS! Coating -1"
I'm going with the trusty Euro.  When this model is consistent...it's far superior than our american models.  ESPECIALLY when the GFS and NAM are flip flopping at every run!

The different models have different timing.  But the Euro has snow showers starting early in the morning through late morning/early afternoon. 

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