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Friday, February 22, 2013

Storm Shifts Southeast, Messy But Not Bad!

Compare the Euro's precip forecast to the
one in yesterday's post! Big difference!
Boy this has been a fun one to forecast! Over the last 12 hours, computer guidance has shifted our weekend storm father southeast, taking the highest precipitation away from Connecticut.  But at the same time, the storm is not far away enough or strong enough to bring an all snow event. Compared to the blizzard two weeks ago, this storm will be a walk in the park!

Temps climbed into the upper 30s and low 40s today.  So where’s the cold? Good question!  There isn’t any arctic air in place and it’s not moving in.  That’s why we will see a little bit of everything this time around…snow, sleet, rain and then…more snow! But temps will remain above freezing for almost the entire event.  So any snow or sleet that falls should melt on well traveled roads and highways.  Sure, roads will be slippery and slushy.  But I’m not going to tell you to halt travel altogether (like I did two weeks ago).

Tomorrow morning is quiet.  A few flurries might sneak in.  During the afternoon a more substantial period of snow overspreads the state.  A coating to 2” of accumulation is possible before a switch over to rain from south to north.  The rain will help wash away some or all of the accumulation.  The northwest and northeast hills are the exception.  Some towns in the higher elevations will see temps around or just below the freezing point.  So any accumulation could stick through the entire event.

Temps Saturday night stay above
freezing except in the hills.
Snow will be wet and heavy.  Since we shouldn't get more than a few inches in most of the state, I don't expect power outages to be a big problem around here. But some isolated outages are possible. 

Sunday morning the wind switches from east to north and cold air is pulled in from the north leading to a change back over to snow. Snow showers will continue Sunday morning. Some of the computer models end the storm by lunch time.  Others show lingering snow and rain showers lasting into Sunday night.  I’m inclined to agree with the latter scenario at this time. An additional coating to 3” is possible.

If you add up all the snow that falls Saturday and Sunday you get the map below.  A coating to 2” in southern Connecticut with 2”-5” in the northern part of the state.  Of that range, the 4”-5” amounts are reserved for the higher elevations of northwest and northeast Connecticut. Hartford will end up with around 2”-3” total. But all the snow that falls will not necessarily stick to the ground! As I mentioned, temps will stay above freezing AND a period of rain will wash a lot of the snow away.  So accumulations will be less than this in most areas.

AND our active pattern continues with another wintry mix Wednesday followed by an all snow event on Friday.  Let’s get through this one first before we get into details. Is it spring yet?
Position of the low Sunday morning ala the Euro
Snowfall forecast based on a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio.
This snow will be less than 10:1 (heavier & wet)
If you made it this far, you're a real weather die hard.  Your prize? Click this link for a silly video I made with my fiance! The funniest part? He came up with the script!

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