Bad Timing: First Flakes Of the Season

Tomorrow’s nor’easter looks less impressive for us here in Connecticut.  This is not a storm we will remember a year from now or even a month from now.  BUT…the timing will be bad for the areas still recovering from Sandy. Thousands remain in the dark on the shoreline!  Additionally, with arrival in the afternoon, roads could become slippery for the commute.

Forecast changes:

The forecast track for the storm has shifted east.  Here’s the good news:  the worst winds and the heaviest precipitation also shifted east.  Here’s the bad news: now Connecticut is in the coldest part of the storm with snow possible right down to the shoreline!

Impacts:

Slippery spots for the afternoon and evening commute tomorrow.  Widely scattered power outages caused by gusty winds.  Minor coastal flooding.

Timing:
Tomorrow morning: Clouds thicken up.  No problems for the commute.

Tomorrow afternoon: Snow and rain developing from southeast to northwest. Winds pick up (out of the northeast…that’s why we call it a nor’easter).  Any snow that falls is not likely to stick for an extended period of time.  But roads could get snow covered and slick for a little while tomorrow afternoon/evening.   It’s possible that some schools have early dismissal. A slushy coating is possible with up to 2”-3” in areas that are hardest hit (hard to pinpoint with uncertainties in the storm's track). After the initial burst of rain and snow, the rest of the precipitation with this storm looks light. Winds gusts will reach up to 40 mph inland, 50 mph for the shoreline.

Tomorrow evening: Snow changes to light rain and freezing rain. 

Thursday morning: A few leftover showers, mostly cloudy. The snow is almost entirely melted with nothing to a small slushy compact coating on non paved surfaces.

Coastal Flooding: 

The forecast water level in Bridgeport during
the nor'easter on Wednesday/Thursday

With a persistent easterly wind, another bout of coastal flooding is in the forecast.  We (Bob Cox, Geoff Fox and I) happen to think the NWS storm tide forecast is a little high.  They are projecting Long Island Sound tides 4-5 feet  above normal for tomorrow afternoon and evening. The forecast water level in Bridgeport is 11.75-12.25’ with moderate flooding.  I think minor flooding is more likely with a lower monthly tide cycle and the strongest winds staying well offshore.  Either way, we are not expecting flooding to be even close to what occurred during Sandy. But this will add insult to injury and slow clean up efforts along the shore.

The National Weather Service in Taunton, MA
made this graphic to summarize the storm