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Friday, October 26, 2012

CT Still In Sandy's Crosshairs

No matter what….
  • You have Saturday and most of Sunday to prepare
  • Sunday is ok.  Maybe just a shower or two late or at night
  • Weather deteriorates Monday
  • The worst wind and rain Monday night-Tuesday Morning
  • BUT this could be a long duration storm with strong winds lasting through Wednesday, rain/showers through Thursday or Friday
  • Coastal Flooding is pretty much a guarantee.  We’re just not sure to what degree yet. Prepare for moderate to severe.
  • NO SNOW FOR US HERE IN CT!  Maybe in West Virginia or Pennsylvania.  No "snowicane" as some have suggested.
  • This is not a normal tropical storm that weakens after moving into cooler water. This "hybrid" storm will be gaining steam (unique) after interacting with the northern branch of the jet stream. 
  • The storm will become asymmetric with heaviest rain west of the storms track, strongest winds and storm surge right of the storm’s track.
  • Sandy will continue to grow in size as will the radius of hurricane and tropical storm force winds (hundreds of miles from the storm's center)!

We are rooting for the National Hurricane Center track right now.  A track near Delaware Bay is probably the best case scenario for us with the heaviest rain and wind staying south of Connecticut.  Scattered power outages with tropical storm gusts are likely in this case.  Some inland flooding is possible along small streams and creeks.  Coastal flooding will still be moderate to major. But for inland areas, not destructive. The farther south the better!

One of the most trusted computer models called the European  model
or ECMWF. Those Europeans sure know how to forecast!
But many of our computer models have a track north of the official NHC track. The major American computer model that we trust, the GFS, has a track taking the storm into Sandy Hook, and New York Harbor. This would be devastating for New York City and New Jersey with historical storm surge.  For us, hurricane force gusts are possible with widespread power outages and major to potentially severe coastal flooding.  Inland flooding is likely too with the storm getting stuck on top of us through Thursday or Friday.

A major American model called the GFS

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for this (again)!