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Friday, October 28, 2011

Historic October Snow Storm

The biggest October storm in recent history was October 4, 1987. But this event was primarily in western Connecticut. Norfolk recorded 9.5” of snow. But Hartford got a little coating (trace).

The most snow ever recorded in October for greater Hartford is 1.7” on October 10, 1979. All we need Saturday is to 2” to break the record and I think we will triple that number!

Timing:
The storm will arrive midday between 10AM-1 PM as a rain/wintry mix. But that mix will change over to a heavy wet snow from northwest to southeast throughout the afternoon. Snow will pick up in intensity later in the afternoon with the worst starting around or just after 4 PM. Snow will come down heavy at times. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if you heard thunder tomorrow night. Yep, thundersnow is possible! If that happens, snowfall rates could get up to 1”-2” per hour with blizzard conditions. The snow winds down and ends just before sunrise on Sunday.

Amounts:

I’m forecasting 6”-10” across most of the state. Areas in northwestern Connecticut, especially in the higher elevations, could pick up a foot of snow! Litchfield County, I’m talking to you! Right now I’m including New Haven and Bridgeport in that 6”-10” range. It makes me nervous because the shoreline almost always has more mixing due to the proximity to the water. But I have to go with the data I’m given. For now it looks as if we will have enough cool air along the shoreline to get some big numbers. Southeastern CT…New London County, this storm will still be annoying and historic, but not as bad. I’m forecasting more rain to mix in with 2”-6” possible for you.

Power Outage Concerns:
The heavy wet snow could weigh down trees that are still covered in leaves. This creates a big threat for power outages, especially combined with winds up to 60 mph and wet soil. Look for outages similar to the numbers in Irene.

Track Troubles:
I hate to be the annoying stereotypical meteorologist here. But storms like this are notoriously hard to forecast. If the track shifts just a little to the west (just 20-40 miles) we will see more rain mix in. Then my snow accumulation forecast is way too high. If the track shifts to the east then SE CT gets more snow than I’m forecasting right now. On the flip side, the precip will cut off sharply for western CT drastically decreasing snowfall amounts. The track has been pretty consistent for several runs now. I’ll make my final call tomorrow morning on the News from 7-9 on FOX.

2 comments:

Dresden said...

I hope we get at least 8 inches up here in Simsbury. I think even weather forecasters get overly excited with snowstorms, and tend to inflate their storm totals. Reason I say that is because earlier today the weather channel was reporting 10-15 inches for Greater Hartford! Whatever the case, this is really a neat event...first time I can ever remember a measureable snow in October

Cooking with Tammi said...

Hoping for none here in New Preston, CT. Last snow I remember in OCT. was Oct 4, 1987. And I thought that was pretty bring a kid and they cancelled school. Hey what kid does not like a snow day!