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Sunday, July 10, 2011

Two Days of Heat...Strong Storm Potential Tuesday PM

Get ready to sweat! Temperatures will skyrocket into the 80s/low 90s Monday with increasing humidity. Grab your sunglasses with partly sunny skies. An isolated late day shower or thunderstorm is possible. But most of the state will stay dry so don’t cancel outdoor plans. Tuesday looks warmer and more humid out ahead of a cold front. The front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. The afternoon/evening will be the most active timeframe.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has put CT in the “slight risk” category as seen to the left.

Looking at the BUFKIT (a weather forecasting tool), Bradley Intl. Airport has a lifted index of -5 which indicates moderate instability. I included screen shot of the data I'm referencing below. There are over 1,900 J/kg of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) which again indicates moderate instability. A peak Bulk Richardson number (shear measurement) of 92 indicates the potential for significant supercells.

No reason to run for the hills. We'll keep an eye on it for you, as usual! Behind the front, cooler, drier weather starts moving in Wednesday.

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