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Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Winter For The First Day Of Spring?

Winter's revenge?
Many of us have already put away the snow blower and snow boots, especially after last week’s record warmth. But winter might make a comeback, just in time for the first day of spring!

An arctic front Friday will bring a late-winter chill back to New England, helping to set the stage for a developing nor’easter.

The budding storm will be off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday night. The storm will rapidly intensify as it moves north.

I am confident a strong coastal storm will develop, but where it tracks is the million dollar question, and the track will determine the impact. A path close to the coast would mean rain and/or snow and high winds. A track too far east would be a slight blow with little or no impact. Then, there’s a sweet spot in the middle that could bring New England an impressive snow storm. It wouldn't be the first time Connecticut got plowable snow in March!

Two possible scenarios
While we can't give you specifics yet, it's becoming increasingly likely that Connecticut will feel some impact from the coastal storm.  ALL of our operational computer models are indicating at least some snow at this time. One of our most trusted sources for mid/long range forecasting is the European Ensembles (forgive me for getting technical). Right now 70% of the members show AT LEAST 1" of snow. That's a high percentage for an event 4+ days away.

When forecasting storms that are still several days away, it’s important to look at trends. Are the models trending west over time? Is the storm getting stronger or weaker? As of right now, we’re seeing a lot of big changes from run to run with very little consistency. That indicates a low-confidence forecast.

Bottom line: It’s too soon to get nervous or excited yet. But keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days as we get a better handle on the impact.

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