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Saturday, March 19, 2016

This Spring Storm Has Me On An Emotional Rollercoaster

This job can be incredibly humbling. Predicting what Mother Nature wants to do is never easy. Sometimes all the equipment and technology in the world can’t help us make sense of a complex set-up.  This is one of those situations.

There are several distinct disturbances that are all undergoing their own transformations while at the same time interacting with each other. Each computer model tries to determine the evolution with a different set of equations. But the outcomes for this storm have been wildly different.

Here’s what we’re thinking right now…

TIMING

The timing has been pushed back somewhat. Instead of snow breaking out in the afternoon as originally forecast, snow will hold off until between 8pm – midnight. Snow is expected to remain light for western and central Connecticut. But moderate snowfall is possible for eastern and southeastern Connecticut. The worst is over before 8 AM with lingering flurries into 10 AM Monday morning. Any snow that ends up accumulating should melt fairly quickly due to the warm ground and higher sun angle this time of year.

IMPACT

Roads could be slippery in spots overnight Sunday into Monday morning. We don’t anticipate any school closures at this time. But school delays are possible as DOT crews catch up, mainly in eastern CT.

SNOW TOTALS

Even though this is an early spring storm, the bulk of the snow will fall after sunset and overnight which will allow the snow to stick more readily than during the daytime.

We are expecting all snow and no mixing with this event. The highest amounts will be in southeastern Connecticut, closer to the storm’s location. The lowest amounts can be found in western Connecticut.  

Look at the left side for now! Haha.

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