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Friday, March 18, 2016

It's On! Spring Snow But Not A Big Hit

Our official forecast is the first solution but there's a chance the storm moves even farther offshore. Only a smaller chance at more snow than this
We haven’t dodged the threat of snow this weekend. But it looks like we will avoid getting a monster nor’easter Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

While we were sleeping Thursday night the computer models made a huge shift east.  Sunday’s coastal storm will develop and strengthen too far offshore to bring a blockbuster spring storm. 

Timing:

All day Saturday and Sunday morning look dry.  Snow will develop in the afternoon, starting off light initially and then picking up in intensity later in the day and Sunday night. The roads will probably remain wet for a majority of the day.  Spring storms are tricky like that because of the higher sun angle and warm ground. It takes heavy snow to stick to the roads at this time of year.

Heavier snow is possible at night, continuing into the early morning Monday. As of right now I think snow will be over before 8 AM (maybe even earlier than that). Snow should be able to quickly melt away for the reasons I mentioned above.

How Much:

There is still a big spread in the computer models even right now as I type this (Friday at 7 PM).  But all outcomes point to more snow in the eastern part of the state. One scenario points to a light to moderate snowfall. The other has the storm strengthening even later and farther offshore resulting much less statewide including little to no snow in western Connecticut. I’m leaning towards the first scenario but either are possible at this point.

WHY the differences? There are several moving parts that the models are trying to “figure out”. Each one has a different idea of what those parts will do over time, resulting in different outcomes.

Precipitation Type:

There’s a slight chance some sleet could mix in for areas southeast of Hartford. But I think that would be an exception. I’m expecting wet snow with this storm, not the fluffy dry stuff.

Impact:

While winds will pick up during the storm, I do not expect damaging winds in this storm.  While there could be a few pockets of power outages due to the wet nature of the snow, I also do not see this as being a major concern right now.  Obviously, roads could get slippery though (that happens any time it snows), especially Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Bottom Line:

This is NOT a biggie! But remember, just last week many of us thought winter was over for good with record warmth several days in a row. This is a stark reminder that it can and will snow at times through early spring! Please check back in for updates over the weekend as we continue to put together pieces of the forecasting puzzle.

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