Cool But Mainly Dry Weekend

This weekend will be cool by April standards. But it could be a lot worse. A winter storm will just miss Connecticut, bringing accumulating snow to parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania Saturday. After some morning sun, clouds will take over by Saturday afternoon as the storm gets closer. There is a chance for a rain or snow shower in spots (especially in southern Connecticut). But I think most towns will stay dry. The sun will shine for the UConn Huskies parade and rally in Hartford on Sunday with temperatures in the mid-40s.

There is no BIG warm-up in sight. But at least temperatures will get closer to average heading into next week, along with some April Showers. Baby steps towards a return to spring weather!

Forecast Details: 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, quite cold. Low: 25-35.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, chance for a late day rain/snow shower. But it’s still too soon to say what impact (if any) from a nearby storm. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Near 50.

Tuesday: Mild start with rain and wind. Some clearing in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, brisk and cooler. High: 50s. Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 50s.

Cooler heading into the weekend

A lingering shower is possible tonight with areas of drizzle and fog developing. But the wettest and worst of Thursday's weather is over.

Friday will not be as mild (upper 40s-near 50) with a mix of sun and clouds. While most of the day will be dry, there is a chance for a passing shower or two (maybe even a snow shower in the NW hills).

This weekend turns even cooler with highs in the 40s (chilly by April standards). A developing ocean storm looks to stay mainly south of the area. The location and intensity of the low will help determine what (if any) effect it has on our weather. There is a chance it misses entirely. If the storm tracks a little closer/stronger rain/snow showers are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. There could even be a period of snow Saturday night with minor accumulation. Right now I’m leaning towards little or no impact at this time. But I still don’t feel confident enough to lock that in. So please keep an eye on the forecast over the next day or so.

There is no BIG warm-up in sight. But at least temperatures will get closer to average heading into next week. We’ll take what we can get!

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Steady rain ending. Leftover shower, patchy fog and drizzle developing. Low: 38-43.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two. High: Upper 40s-Low 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, chance for a late day rain/snow shower. But it's still too soon to say what impact (if any) from a nearby storm. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Mid 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Near 50.

Tuesday: Mild start with rain developing. Windy. High: 55-60.

Brief Warm-Up With Rain

Thursday will be noticeably milder but the warm-up comes with rain. Showers will become more numerous through the morning with heavier downpours and thunder possible in the afternoon/early evening as a cold front approaches. A quick ¾” to 1 ½” of rain is possible. While rivers and streams should be low enough to accept that rain, minor flooding is possible for poor drainage areas and low lying areas.

Thursday: Damp, wet, soaking rain, damp. pic.twitter.com/jWUVe96hAk

— Rachel Frank (@RachelFrank_CT) April 6, 2016

After that brief warm-up, a late winter chill returns for the weekend with highs in the 40s.
Going along with that wintry theme, a few snow showers are possible late Saturday or Saturday night with a developing ocean storm. For now it looks like the storm misses to our south but we’ll need to monitor it the next few days in case that changes.

Wait a minute. What is that??? We may have spotted spring in the misty distant future. Next Tuesday temperatures could climb into the 60s. However, if a cold front arrives earlier in the day it may ruin our chances for a warm-up. So, we’re sayin’ there’s a chance!

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Cloudy with showers developing late. Low: mid-upper 30s. Temps rising towards daybreak.

Thursday: Scattered AM showers becoming more numerous in the afternoon. Chance for a thunderstorm late day/early evening. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Upper 40s-Low 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cool. Chance for a late day or evening snow shower. High: Low- mid 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Low 40s.

This Spring Storm Has Me On An Emotional Rollercoaster

This job can be incredibly humbling. Predicting what Mother Nature wants to do is never easy. Sometimes all the equipment and technology in the world can’t help us make sense of a complex set-up.  This is one of those situations.

There are several distinct disturbances that are all undergoing their own transformations while at the same time interacting with each other. Each computer model tries to determine the evolution with a different set of equations. But the outcomes for this storm have been wildly different.

Here’s what we’re thinking right now…

TIMING

The timing has been pushed back somewhat. Instead of snow breaking out in the afternoon as originally forecast, snow will hold off until between 8pm – midnight. Snow is expected to remain light for western and central Connecticut. But moderate snowfall is possible for eastern and southeastern Connecticut. The worst is over before 8 AM with lingering flurries into 10 AM Monday morning. Any snow that ends up accumulating should melt fairly quickly due to the warm ground and higher sun angle this time of year.

IMPACT

Roads could be slippery in spots overnight Sunday into Monday morning. We don’t anticipate any school closures at this time. But school delays are possible as DOT crews catch up, mainly in eastern CT.

SNOW TOTALS

Even though this is an early spring storm, the bulk of the snow will fall after sunset and overnight which will allow the snow to stick more readily than during the daytime.

We are expecting all snow and no mixing with this event. The highest amounts will be in southeastern Connecticut, closer to the storm’s location. The lowest amounts can be found in western Connecticut.  

Look at the left side for now! Haha.

It's On! Spring Snow But Not A Big Hit

Our official forecast is the first solution but there's a chance the storm moves even farther offshore. Only a smaller chance at more snow than this

We haven’t dodged the threat of snow this weekend. But it looks like we will avoid getting a monster nor’easter Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

While we were sleeping Thursday night the computer models made a huge shift east.  Sunday’s coastal storm will develop and strengthen too far offshore to bring a blockbuster spring storm. 

Timing:

All day Saturday and Sunday morning look dry.  Snow will develop in the afternoon, starting off light initially and then picking up in intensity later in the day and Sunday night. The roads will probably remain wet for a majority of the day.  Spring storms are tricky like that because of the higher sun angle and warm ground. It takes heavy snow to stick to the roads at this time of year.

Heavier snow is possible at night, continuing into the early morning Monday. As of right now I think snow will be over before 8 AM (maybe even earlier than that). Snow should be able to quickly melt away for the reasons I mentioned above.

How Much:

There is still a big spread in the computer models even right now as I type this (Friday at 7 PM).  But all outcomes point to more snow in the eastern part of the state. One scenario points to a light to moderate snowfall. The other has the storm strengthening even later and farther offshore resulting much less statewide including little to no snow in western Connecticut. I’m leaning towards the first scenario but either are possible at this point.

WHY the differences? There are several moving parts that the models are trying to “figure out”. Each one has a different idea of what those parts will do over time, resulting in different outcomes.

Precipitation Type:

There’s a slight chance some sleet could mix in for areas southeast of Hartford. But I think that would be an exception. I’m expecting wet snow with this storm, not the fluffy dry stuff.

Impact:

While winds will pick up during the storm, I do not expect damaging winds in this storm.  While there could be a few pockets of power outages due to the wet nature of the snow, I also do not see this as being a major concern right now.  Obviously, roads could get slippery though (that happens any time it snows), especially Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Bottom Line:

This is NOT a biggie! But remember, just last week many of us thought winter was over for good with record warmth several days in a row. This is a stark reminder that it can and will snow at times through early spring! Please check back in for updates over the weekend as we continue to put together pieces of the forecasting puzzle.

Spring Snow, A Good Bet!

The final days of winter have felt more like spring. But the first day of spring will feel more like winter. Today we have more confidence in telling you to mentally prepare for snow Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Accumulating or plowable snow is a good bet at this point accompanied by strong gusty winds. A big snow storm is also within the realm of possibilities.

So now for the million dollar question…how much snow? If the storm tracks over/near a sweet spot south of Nantucket (AKA the benchmark) we'll get a big snowstorm. If the storm comes too close to the coast, we could change over to heavy sleet and/or rain! That would cut into snowfall totals but still produce a mess. Right now the least likely scenario is the storm missing and heading out to sea.

When will we know more?

One piece of energy that will play a major role in this storm’s development is still in Canada and has a long distance to travel. What that disturbance does over the next 24-48 hours will be vital to nailing down a forecast.

What trends are we noticing today?

Over the last 24 hours the trend has been to bring the track of the storm farther west. This is the reason we are saying an out to sea solution is least likely. All of our computer models are calling for snow to varying degrees. The question is…has that western trend stopped or will it continue? Too far west and we’ll pull in some warmer air with a changeover to sleet/rain (as the Canadian model is currently showing). Also on the topic of trends, the European computer model has remained fairly consistent in showing a bit hit for us here in New England (and all snow). In the past when the Euro does that, it’s usually onto something.

Spring forecasting challenges

Forecasting late winter/early spring storms comes with a unique set of challenges.  The ground is warmer.  There’s also a higher sun angle at this time of year. These factors can sometimes limit how much snow sticks to the ground (especially paved surfaces) during the daytime. However, all bets are off if it snows heavily enough. Also, once the sun sets, it’s game on.

Another challenge this time of year is the lack of truly arctic air. That can lower snow-to-liquid ratios (think heavier wetter snow instead of the fluffy dry stuff). Hey, at least we don’t have leaves on the trees yet!

Winter For The First Day Of Spring?

Winter's revenge?

Many of us have already put away the snow blower and snow boots, especially after last week’s record warmth. But winter might make a comeback, just in time for the first day of spring!

An arctic front Friday will bring a late-winter chill back to New England, helping to set the stage for a developing nor’easter.

The budding storm will be off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday night. The storm will rapidly intensify as it moves north.

I am confident a strong coastal storm will develop, but where it tracks is the million dollar question, and the track will determine the impact. A path close to the coast would mean rain and/or snow and high winds. A track too far east would be a slight blow with little or no impact. Then, there’s a sweet spot in the middle that could bring New England an impressive snow storm. It wouldn't be the first time Connecticut got plowable snow in March!

Two possible scenarios

While we can't give you specifics yet, it's becoming increasingly likely that Connecticut will feel some impact from the coastal storm.  ALL of our operational computer models are indicating at least some snow at this time. One of our most trusted sources for mid/long range forecasting is the European Ensembles (forgive me for getting technical). Right now 70% of the members show AT LEAST 1" of snow. That's a high percentage for an event 4+ days away.

When forecasting storms that are still several days away, it’s important to look at trends. Are the models trending west over time? Is the storm getting stronger or weaker? As of right now, we’re seeing a lot of big changes from run to run with very little consistency. That indicates a low-confidence forecast.

Bottom line: It’s too soon to get nervous or excited yet. But keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days as we get a better handle on the impact.

Sun, Showers, Storms & SNOW?

Remember the sun? After a couple of gray days, Wednesday’s sun will be a welcome sight in the sky! The day will get off to a murky start with low clouds and fog. But that moisture will burn away revealing some sun accompanied by a warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the 60s (50s for the shore). There is a chance for a late day or evening shower as a fast moving weather system flies by.

Another fast-moving disturbance will zip through Thursday too. While most of your Saint Patrick’s Day looks dry with partial sun, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible. Some of those storms could even be strong with gusty winds.

Colder (albeit seasonable) air returns Friday into the weekend. The question is, will that cool down be accompanied by storminess?

On The Weather Watch: We’re watching Late Sunday into Monday for a potential nor’easter. 5-6 days there's a lot we don't know. The storm could bring a cold rain and/or late-season snow. But there's also a chance it stays harmlessly out to sea. It would be "funny" if we got snow the first day of spring.

What are you rooting for? Team 'cold rain', 'snow' or 'miss'?

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 39-45.

Wednesday: Early fog burns off. Becoming partly sunny. Chance for evening showers.  High: 56-62.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Some could be strong with gusty winds.  High:  55-60.

Friday: Partly cloudy, chance rain/snow shower in spots. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Highs: Mid 40s.

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Chance for rain/snow developing late. High: Mid 40s.

Record Warmth Wednesday

This impressive early March warm-up is not over yet. Temperatures will soar into the 70s Wednesday, challenging records.

Early fog will break for lots of sunshine Wednesday allowing temperatures to skyrocket. While 70s are a good bet inland, the shoreline will be noticeably cooler. As the air blows over the Long Island Sound (water temp: 40s), the air cools temporarily. This “sea breeze” as it’s called, will keep the beaches in the 60s Wednesday.

But no matter where you are in the state Wednesday, records could break. The record for Bridgeport is only 60 degrees. The record for the Hartford area is 72.

Thursday is our bonus day. A cold front lurking nearby will be close enough to provide more clouds. But it looks to hold off just long enough to allow one final day near 70 before “cooler” air returns Friday.

While Friday – weekend will be technically cooler, temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year. Parade weekend weather looks dry and pleasant for now. Let’s cross our fingers and hope nothing changes between now and then. 

Early next week looks cooler and unsettled. But there is no arctic cold in sight heading through the final days of winter and into the start of spring.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 37-43.

Wednesday: Early fog. Mostly sunny, record-challenging warmth.  High: 62-68 shore 68-74 inland.

Thursday:  Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for showers late-day or at night. High: 65-70.

Friday: Chance for an early morning shower (mainly before daybreak) then becoming sunny. Not as warm as recent days. High: 55-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, mild. High: 57-63.

Sunday: Sunshine mixing with high clouds. Mild. Chance for showers at night. High: 57-60.

A Touch Of Winter

Winter made a comeback Thursday and to go along with that theme, a few flakes could fly through the air Friday too.

A developing coastal storm will miss Connecticut, staying well to the south.  As the low intensifies, the jet stream will rapidly pull the storm east/offshore. A few flurries are possible Friday, mainly in southern/southeast Connecticut. But it will not be enough to provide any accumulation. Southeastern New England areas like Cape Cod will get accumulating snow, closer to the storm's center of circulation. 

A weaker storm will slide far south of Connecticut Sunday bringing another chance for a touch of snow. Once again, the bulk of the storm looks to stay south with little/no impact other than some flurries.

After a few cold days with the chance for flurries, next week the pendulum will then swing the other way. Temperatures will soar into the 60s for 2-3 days. We may even get 70+ degree warmth on Wednesday. Spring fever will be in full effect.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 20-25.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few flurries. No accumulation is expected.   High: Mid 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: Low 40s.

Sunday: Chance for early flurries. Clouds break for sunshine. Low 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. This will be the start of an impressive warming trend. High: Low 50s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, warmer. High: Low 60s.

2 AM Thursday AM Update

Wind gusts have approached 60-70 mph in parts of the state early Thursday morning. As I write this 62,000+ people are in the dark across Connecticut with downed trees and powerlines. While the worst winds overnight are within thunderstorms, wind damage is possible at any time overnight. Storms will move out between 3-4 AM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 4 AM the latest.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds could gust over 60 mph.

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in February?

While snow and ice is no longer a concern, we’re not out of the woods! Now our focus shifts to scattered downpours, gusty thunderstorms and a wild warm-up with temperatures approaching 60 degrees tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southern Connecticut until 2 AM Thursday. The biggest concern with any thunderstorms that develop will be wind damage. 

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds will increase tonight out of the south from  20 to 30 mph with a few gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Those higher wind gusts are most likely within a heavier downpour or thunderstorm. If strong storms develop, gusts could reach 70 mph. Scattered power outages are possible.

Temperatures will sky-rocket tonight, approaching 60 degrees! The warmer air will help boost instability out ahead of tonight’s worst weather.  The heaviest rain and threat for strong storms will be between 11 PM – 3 AM. 

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Then after an active start to the week, the rest of the week will be very calm in comparison. It’s noticeably cooler Friday and Saturday, in the 30s. But the chill won’t last. 50s return early next week.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rainy and warm with areas of fog and the chance for a few embedded gusty thunderstorms. 55-65.

Thursday: Pre-dawn torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with the chance for an isolated shower. Daytime high: 48-53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Near 50.

Monday: Mild and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for an isolated shower in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Snow on the way out

Snow is changing over to sleet and rain now in parts of southern Connecticut. That mixing line will slowly move north. By midnight the snow will be done everywhere. But with areas of drizzle and temperatures near freezing, some inland areas could see an icy glaze with slick spots for a few hours overnight.

We don’t expect big problems for the Wednesday morning commute. Most of the state will be above freezing with patchy fog and drizzle. However, icy spots could linger into early Wednesday for the northwest hills.

Wednesday looks cloudy and cool to start with showers becoming more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night. While daytime highs will be in the 30s, temperatures will soar at night, approaching 60 degrees by pre-dawn Thursday. Torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms are possible before sunrise with winds up to 50 mph.  Scattered power outages are possible too.

Luckily, the worst ends before the morning commute on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for a lingering shower in spots.

Then after an active start to the week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Snow changes to rain, then tapers off. Drizzle and fog overnight. Areas of freezing drizzle inland. Low: 30-35.

Wednesday: Drizzle and fog for the morning commute. Some icy spots possible in the northwest hills. Periods of rain. Heaviest late and at night. Cool most of the day with rising temps late.  High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Near 50.

Here we snow again!

Snowy evening commute Tuesday

Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quiet. Then conditions head downhill with a parade of storms the next 48-hours. Get ready for big swings in temperature and precipitation types as we go from snow to ice to rain and even thunder!

Snow will develop in the afternoon. This may start off as a brief wintry mix for some along the shoreline until the air cools-down enough to support all snow. Snow will be falling everywhere for the evening commute. We’re not expecting much in the way of accumulation, a coating to 2”. But that’s certainly enough to slow you down out there.

After the commute, snow will taper off and transition over to a light wintry mix and then rain showers as milder air moves in. But the cold may remain stubborn in some towns in the northern half of the state (Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties). While at cloud level, it will be warm enough for drizzle, temperatures at the surface might be cold enough freeze anything that falls, forming an icy glaze. That could be an issue heading into the Wednesday morning commute.

After some icy spots to start on Wednesday, temperatures will rise and showers will become more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night as temperatures soar. 50s are expected in the wee hours of Thursday morning with gusty winds and a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will taper off throughout the day Thursday. But not until we collect 1”-2” of rain!

Then after an active start to the work-week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 20s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with snow/wintry mix developing in the afternoon. A snowy evening commute. A coating - 2" possible.  High: 35-40.

Wednesday: Icy spots inland in the morning with pockets of freezing drizzle. Periods of rain, heaviest late-day and at night. High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: 30’s.

Spring Weekend

A taste of spring returns this weekend with temperatures climbing into the 50s.  The leading edge of milder air will trigger a few rain or snow showers Friday night into early Saturday morning (before sunrise). A few slick spots are possible from 10 PM – 3 AM with temperatures around freezing. Then temperatures will slowly rise towards daybreak around 35-40 degrees.

Clouds will break for some sun on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Sunday will be a smidge “cooler”, near 50.

We’re keeping a close eye on Sunday night into Monday morning. A fast moving disturbance passing south of Connecticut could bring a period of mix/snow.  While not a guarantee yet, accumulating snow is possible for the morning commute. Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend for updates.

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. But saying there is a big range of possible solutions would be an understatement!! Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? A new trend in the computer models today has the storm breaking into two weaker pieces. One storm Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Bottom line: snow/ice/rain is possible with potentially messy travel Wednesday – Thursday. But a big snowstorm in unlikely.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Thickening clouds with the chance for passing rain and snow showers. Low: 30-37.

Saturday: Clouds break for some sun, becoming partly cloudy and mild. High: 50-55.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Increasing clouds late. High: Near 40.

Wednesday: Chance for snow/mix/rain. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Warmer Weekend But A Few Chances For Snow

Thursday was noticeably cooler than recent days. But the chill doesn’t stick around. A warm front
Friday night into early Saturday will bring the chance for a light rain or snow shower in spots. It’s possible a handful of towns could get a coating out of this. But nothing too impressive without a lot of moisture to work with. 

By this weekend, spring is back with temperatures near 50 degrees.

Another disturbance will bring the chance for rain/snow showers late Sunday night into early Monday. While this isn’t a big snow threat, it could still cause some issues for the Monday morning commute. Perhaps even accumulating snow.

Don't get nervous or cancel plans over this yet. But it's worth watching this weekend!

On the weather watch:

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. The whole east coast will need to monitor for potential impacts. That’s a lot of real estate! As of right now, odds favor some impact from this storm here in Connecticut. Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? It’s too early to say. BUT I can tell you that odds DO NOT favor a bit snow hit for us.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Clear, cold. Breezy start with winds diminishing towards daybreak. Low: 10-20.

Friday: Sunshine to start with increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for rain/snow showers at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. High: Near 40.

Cold/White To Warm/Wet

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until early Tuesday morning. It's hard to believe we'll go from sub-zero temperatures to 50s and heavy rain in the span of 36 hours!

Snow has filled in and is having no trouble sticking to the ground because of the recent cold. Around 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate before switching over to ice and rain. This changeover will happen from south to north from 8 PM - midnight. Ice will hang out longer and could accumulate on the roads and powerlines for the Connecticut River Valley. This will lead to slippery/icy conditions for some late night drivers and even into the Tuesday morning commute.

The morning drive on Tuesday will be foggy and drizzly. Not much will be falling from the sky. But roads might still be icy, especially for northern valley locations around Hartford, north towards the Massachusetts border. School delays are possible for a handful of towns until that stubborn cold can be scoured out.

This graphic highlights the area we're most concerned about ice for Tuesday morning.
It could be much colder in the northern valley than surrounding areas.

Showers will become more numerous in the afternoon, especially later in the day as temperatures soar into the 50s. Rain will come down heavy at times with the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Even with lots of melting, river flooding should not be an issue. But poor drainage flooding and puddles are likely during the evening commute.

No more sub-zero temperatures. We're back to another milder pattern with near to above average temperatures for the next week or so.

Tonight: Snow becoming steadier. 1"-3" possible and then a change from snow to ice and then rain. Icing lingers longer for northern CT, especially in the northern valley locations. Low: 25-30. By Tuesday AM commute: 25-45. BIG range in temps.

Tuesday: Cloudy, drizzle and foggy in the morning. Icy spots linger early in far northern CT.  Steady/heavy rain developing in the afternoon. Some heavy at times. High: 50s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High: 40-45.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Friday: Becoming cloudy. Chance for rain/snow showers late or at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, partly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Quick Shot Of Cold

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy

of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. 

High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Bitterly Cold Valentine's Day Weekend

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Colder, Windier Days Ahead

Snow has come to an end tonight. But the break will be short-lived. Flakes fly again tomorrow and perhaps Saturday morning. Even with some nuisance snow in the forecast, the big story is the harsh, potentially record breaking cold that follows this weekend.

Snow showers will redevelop again on Thursday. Once again activity will be hit or miss. Some towns will get very little or no snow while others could get a quick coating to an inch or two. Winds will pick up throughout the day with gusts up to 30 miles an hour. Temperatures will be much colder than recent days with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the 10s.

As bitter cold arrives Friday night into Saturday morning, there is one last shot at snow showers. This doesn’t look like much but it’s worth mentioning so you don’t get caught off guard.

Get your hats, scarves and gloves ready to go heading into this weekend. High temperatures will be in the teens both days. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be below zero and when you factor in the wind, it will feel more like -30 to -20 to start off the day!

The frigid blast only lasts a couple of days though. In fact, the next storm late Monday night into Tuesday may be mainly rain with temperatures in the 40s. All in a New England week!

Forecast Details:

Not sure what I was smiling about....

Tonight: Partly cloudy with snow showers developing towards daybreak. Low: 17-25.

Tomorrow: Windy and colder with scattered snow showers. High: 23-28.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High: mid-upper 20s.

Saturday: Morning snow possible, otherwise windy and bitterly cold. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. High: Low-mid 10s.

More snow & cold. Winter is back!

Another snowy day started off the work week. The snow caused numerous problems with accidents across the state this afternoon, and will continue to do so through the evening commute. Light to occasionally moderate snow will slowly taper off, ending around or before midnight for most of the state.

There’s no denying it now. Winter isn’t over yet. This week offers a sharp contrast from last week’s spring-like 50s. There are several chances for snow, not to mention the coldest air of the season this weekend.  

Timing this week’s potential snow:

One round of snow showers Wednesday could bring a light accumulation, on the order of a coating to two inches in spots.

An arctic front Thursday will trigger a round of snow squalls, brief bursts of snow and gusty winds. Snow squalls are infamous for bringing rapid changes in weather like brief white-out conditions and a quick coatings of snow.

The biggest question mark is late Friday night into Saturday morning. There are some signals for accumulating snow. Most of our computer models show little impact through this time-frame. But it’s still worth watching, especially heading into the big Valentine’s Day weekend.

Biggest cold snap of the year-to-date:

This weekend will be bitterly cold with highs in the teens and low temperatures in single digits to below-zero!! A breeze at times this weekend could send wind chills into the “dangerous” category.

Tonight: Cloudy with periods of light to moderate snow, tapering off around/before midnight. An additional coating -3" possible. Low: 15-20.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy.  High: 30-35.

Tomorrow Night: Snow showers could bring another coating - 1" in spots. But accumulations will be hit or miss. Low: 18-25.

Wednesday: Chance for snow showers, mainly in the morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Thursday: Windy and colder with a few bursts of snow possible. High: Near 30.

Friday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cold. High: mid-upper 20s.

Saturday: Morning snow possible, otherwise windy and bitterly cold. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Still frigid cold. Morning lows below zero, afternoon highs in the teens.

1 AM update

Just a little tweaking to account for current trends and to keep things current. Waiting for the Euro to come in so I can go home and stress out there!! ;)

Well that escalated quickly...

A snow storm is heading this way and the worst will hit during the morning commute on Friday.

I know it seems impossible. But snow can and will stick to the ground if it comes down heavy enough, even after several days of near-record warmth.

This storm looked like it would barely brush us a couple of days ago. But the trend over the last 36 hours has been to bring the storm closer to the coast and the impact for us has changed in a big way.

Timing:

Impact:

-Snow covered roads for the commute along with poor visibility.
-School delays and closings are likely.
-Snow will be wet and heavy (tough to move).
-Some power outages are possible with wet heavy snow sticking to trees and powerlines.

-North winds could gust up to 30 mph, blowing snow.

Accumulations:

3”-6” range for most of the state with higher amounts possible in eastern/northeastern Connecticut. Lower amounts, 1”-3” in northwest Connecticut, including most of Litchfield County.

While we have high confidence about the impact of this storm, there is lower confidence on the actual accumulations. Typically when forecasting snow, we use a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means every 1” of precipitation produces 10” of snow. But that ratio will be lower during this storm. We’re also dealing with a warm ground. While that won’t prevent snow from accumulating, it can eat away at some of the snow that falls. Basically…more snow will fall than will actually accumulate. We feel confident that snow totals will be highest in eastern Connecticut with lower amounts in Litchfield County. The range you see does a good job at showing local variability depending on elevation and snow intensity and also accounts for a small shift in the storm track. We feel comfortable preparing you for the worst instead of you getting surprised with more than you expected. It looks like there will be an area of 6”+ in eastern Connecticut. Right now we think the best chance of that happening is in northeastern CT because of mixing issues in New London County. That being said, that bullseye may need to expand or contract depending on the temperature profile.

Weather Alerts:

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for northeastern Connecticut, in Windham County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of the state with the exception of Litchfield County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But the trend over the last 24 hours has been to bring the worst of the storm farther offshore. This would mean some snow, but nothing big here in Connecticut. Still, it’s a timeframe we need to keep our eye on as a lot can change between now and Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rain showers develop tonight before mixing and changing over to snow after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Friday: Snow, some heavy for the AM drive. Snow ending 10 am - 2 pm from west to east. Breezy with developing sunshine. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, mild and breezy. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds late. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy with the chance for snow. Watching the track of a developing coastal storm. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Last Call For 50s!

It will be a mild start to the day Thursday and a warm finish, in the 50s one last day! A lingering shower is possible early, before 8 am. Otherwise, the rest of the day is partly cloudy and mild.

There is a rising chance for snow Thursday night into Friday morning. The same front bringing rain tonight will stall south of the area. As a little storm rides along it, some rain/snow will graze Cape Cod and the Islands.  Farther west, here in Connecticut, there is more uncertainty. Yesterday we were calling for flurries. Today the trend has been to push snow showers farther northwest. Either way it looks like the best chance of plowable snow would be in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But there are a lot of other scenarios in the range of possibilities as well. Still being 6 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come.

A lot of possible outcomes regarding snow next week. But it shows potential!
Image Source: Weatherbell Analytics

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Periods of rain, windy. 50s for most of the night. mid-upper 40s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Chance for an early shower. Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, colder. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Warm & Windy Wednesday

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 30s.

Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s

Forecast Discussion:

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cooling trend.

The morning commute looks dry with showers developing around midday. The bulk of the rain will hold off until the afternoon and evening with some heavier downpours possible for the ride home. Winds will slowly ramp up too, coming out of the south with gusts up to 35 miles an hour. While it will be windy and wet we’re not expecting damaging winds or flooding.  Rain will continue after the sun sets but temperatures will continue to rise through around midnight-2am when a cold front crosses. Ahead of the front, temperatures will soar into the 50s to around 60 degrees! Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

Cooler air will lag behind the storm. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 50s. Then by Friday, February returns with highs in the upper 30s. There is a slight chance for a few flurries early Friday morning, especially in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the Weather Watch…Early next week

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. Since that is 6-7 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come. 

Spring Fling

60s in February!? High temperatures Monday, February 1st were 20-25 degrees above average. Surprisingly, we didn’t break any records!  Temperatures won’t be quite as warm the next few days but will remain well above average.

The Groundhog is guaranteed to be confused Tuesday with blue skies and temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.  

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cool-down. While the morning commute looks dry, showers will develop around midday. Rain will fall heavily at times with very mild temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees! A gusty southwest wind will pick up too. Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

The cooler air will lag behind the front a bit. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 40s. Then by Friday, a real February chill returns with highs in the upper 30s. Still, there’s no big arctic cold in sight.

Forecast Details:

Monday Night: Chance early sprinkle, slow clearing, cooler. Low: 25-35.

Tuesday: Sunny, remaining mild. High: 45-50.

Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Friday: Sunny, breezy, cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

A whole lotta shaking going on

No it wasn't an earthquake. A sonic boom was felt in many locations across the tri-state area.  The cause? A military jet broke the sound barrier, flying 1,200 mph! Check out the full article here.

But how could people in Connecticut feel tremors from a sonic boom all the way off the coast of Southern New Jersey??

One explanation is a temperature inversion! Instead of sound spreading out in all directions, sometimes it can get trapped close to the ground. This same set up can also lead to poor air quality days, trapping ozone, dirt and pollen near the ground. It can also help radio and TV signals travel farther than usual (also called atmospheric ducting).

Pretty cool, huh? This graphic is an RF original. A masterpiece. I LOVE making graphics. It's my only outlet for using my artistic side these days.

Friday Flurries, February 50s

On Friday, there is a chance for a few flurries or light snow showers as a disturbance crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This has nothing to do with a big offshore storm that will miss Connecticut, staying out to sea. But it may end up being a close call. There are some indications that rain/snow showers could get as close as Cape Cod or even Rhode Island.

Saturday starts off cooler with highs in the 30s to around 40. By Sunday, the thermometer will approach 50 degrees and that’s just the start of what could turn out to be an impressive February thaw. Right now we have 50s in the forecast Sunday – Wednesday. The warmest day will be Wednesday when some towns could approach the 60 degree mark! But before you plan a “beach day,” keep in mind that Wednesday will be rather wet with lots of clouds, gusty winds, rain and even thunderstorms.

If the warmth doesn’t get rid of what’s left of the snow pack, the rain certainly will. Back behind this storm it’s cooler but not cold with highs in the 40s.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, not as cold.  Low: 25-30.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, breezy. Chance for a few flurries or a snow shower. High: Near 40.

Saturday: Sunny to partly cloudy. High: Upper 30s-Near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Monday: Cloudy and mild with the chance for late-day and evening showers. High: Low 50s.

Tuesday: Sunny and very mild for early February. High: Near 50.

Wednesday: Rain and possible thunder, warm. High: mid-upper 50s.

Drip, drip, drip: Melting Ahead

You'll notice a common theme in the days ahead. Thawing during the days and refreezing at nights. So keep an eye out for slick spots each morning this week. If the road/front step looks wet, assume it's icy.

Weather Headlines:

• Milder Tuesday, 40s, chance late-day/evening shower
• Dry, trending a bit cooler Wednesday - Thursday
• Watching an offshore storm Friday

More clouds fill the sky Tuesday as milder air returns. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40s. A shower is possible later in the day or at night as a cold front approaches. Showers will be hit or miss so not every town gets one.

Tuesday's cold front is pretty wimpy! The air following it on Wednesday will still be mild for January standards, near 40 degrees. I can't rule out a passing flurry in the far northwest hills.

Another storm will develop off the Carolinas later this week. I know what you're thinking...uh oh, not again! But this is a totally different set-up than Saturday's historic nor'easter. Right now the chance of that storm hitting us is 30% or less. That's a 70%+ chance it misses.

But while this coastal storm is stealing all the attention on social media, a sneaky disturbance moving through the Great Lakes has a slightly better chance at bringing us some light snow or snow showers.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Watch for icy spots. Low: 20-30.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for a shower or two, mainly late in the day. High: 40-45.

Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy, remaining mild. High: High: 38-43.

Thursday: Sunny, a bit cooler than recent days. High: 35-40.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a storm lurks just offshore. Chance snow/mix if it trends closer to the coast. High: Near 40.

Sunny start to the week and some milder days ahead

Snow Totals from the Blizzard 2016

Wow, what a storm! While parts of northwest Connecticut saw little or no snow, others saw up to 14" in southern Connecticut, and that's not including the giant snow drifts.

Connecticut was spared the epic and historic 30"-40" snowfall to our south and west. Look at the map of final snow totals. This storm could have been so much worse had everything shifted another 25-50 miles north.

Weather Headlines:

• Quiet start to the week, sunny Monday, 30s
• Chance for freezing drizzle Tuesday morning, slick roads are possible. 
• Milder Tuesday, 40s, chance late-day/evening shower
• Watching an offshore storm Friday

Another offshore storm Friday? Don't get nervous or excited
yet. Most guidance suggests this stays offshore. But some
snow is still possible. It's bears waytch

The calm after the storm continues on Monday with blue skies and temperatures near average. There's  a slight chance for freezing drizzle Tuesday morning as milder air tries to move in. More clouds fill the sky Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the 40s by afternoon with the chance for a few showers late-day or at night. The air will be too warm for anything but rain. But if the timing is pushed back any later, that could change.

Another storm will develop off the Carolinas later this week. Most of our guidance suggests the storm stays mainly offshore, but it bears watching. The European ensembles (probably our best gauge for forecasting 3+ days out) suggests some snow is possible.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy start, then clearing late. Low: 10-20.

Tomorrow: Sunny, quiet start to the week. High: 34-38.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for a shower or two, mainly late in the day. High: 40-45.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, remaining mild. High: High: 38-43.

Thursday: Sunny, a bit cooler than recent days. High: 35-40.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a rain or snow shower as a big storm lurks just offshore. High: Near 40.

Saturday Snow-LAST CALL (I Swear)

My last call before the first flakes fly! I bumped up the numbers, especially in Fairfield and New Haven Counties. I still feel strongly about the sharp gradient/cut-off in northern Connecticut. 

I had to bump the numbers after the 0z (late evening) computer model runs came in. It became impossible to ignore the bump north. 

Sometimes it is so hard to change your forecast. You feel loyal to it. You're afraid if you change it, the old one was right and the new one will be wrong and you should have just left it alone to begin with. But in the end, forecasts don't love you back. And as we always say, trend is your friend. EXCEPT in this case when the storm trends north and then south and then north and then south again...

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the shoreline with gusty winds combined with blowing and drifting snow leading to low visibility. Stay safe and enjoy, if you can!