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Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Sneaky Warm Layer!

Rain/snow breaks out 6am - 9 am. Roads won't be too bad right off the bat and first flakes will not stick for most.
By lunchtime it's snowing and sleeting for most of the state, some heavy. Notice SE CT may stay rain.
A sneaky warm layer south of I-84 makes this forecast tricky. How much rain/sleet mixes in is a wild card.
The storm moves out 10 pm - 1 am. Slick spots early Thanksgiving. Breezy and chilly.


Forecast Discussion:

The easiest part of this forecast is the extremes.  Far southeastern Connecticut will get little or no accumulation tomorrow.  But the northwest hills will hit the jackpot at 6”-10” of accumulation.  The hard part lies in between...What about the rest of the state?  There is a sneaky warm layer of air that has the potential to cut down on snow accumulation in favor of sleet.  Figuring out how much sleet mixes in and how far north that occurs will be the key to forecasting snow totals.   Rain will also mix in at times for southern Connecticut too.  So I have to admit, this is a tough forecast!


Timing:

Rain & snow develops between 6-9 AM. The peak of the storm will hit from lunchtime through the early evening. The storm winds down 10pm – 1am (Thursday morning).  By the time the sun comes up on Thanksgiving, it will be partly cloudy and chilly.

Accumulations:


A slushy coating in far southeast Connecticut, 1”-3” for the shoreline, northern New London County and southern New Haven & Middlesex counties. 3”-6” for most of central Connecticut and 6”-10” in the northwest hills.

Bottom Line:

Thanksgiving Eve will be a mixed bag with rain, snow and sleet.  Any snow that falls will be heavy and wet and hard to move.  Some power outages are possible in the hills. Conversely, urban flooding is possible for the shoreline with periods of rain, some heavy. Travel will not be impossible.  But it will be hampered by the storm (and any additional travel traffic).

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Cloudy, rain/snow developing around daybreak. Low: mid to upper 30s.

Tomorrow: Rain and snow start 5-9 am. Mix changes to snow and sleet inland, rain and slush for the shoreline. High temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a snow shower. Breezy and cool.  High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, dry and chilly. High temperatures in the mid 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a snow shower before daybreak. Partly cloudy, not as cool as recent days. High temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday: A mix of clouds and sun, milder. High temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees.

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