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Friday, July 4, 2014

Close, But No Arthur

9AM Track From The National Hurricane Center 80+ degree water highlighted in orange

Arthur, What You Need To Know:
Here’s the bottom line when it comes to Hurricane Arthur. The hurricane will bring no direct impacts to our weather here in the tri-state area. The heaviest rain and damaging winds will remain offshore. But there are a couple of indirect impacts to talk about.  Moisture moving out ahead of Arthur is interacting with an approaching cold front.  That will bring an increased threat for scattered downpours and thunderstorms Friday morning through late afternoon.  The other indirect impact will be on the beaches.  While Arthur slides safely out to sea, he will churn up the ocean, making for rough surf and dangerous rip currents. 

The Latest On Arthur:
Hurricane Arthur has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane with winds up to 90 miles an hour. The storm will continue to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours as it moves into cooler water.  Without warm water to fuel Hurricane Arthur, the storm will undergo an “extra tropical transition”.  That’s just a fancy way of saying its structure will become less like a hurricane.

Arthur's Wind Field. Red represents
Hurricane force winds. Yellow for tropical
storm force winds.
The National Hurricane Center track keeps the center of Hurricane Arthur 150 miles southeast of the Montauk and 180 miles away from NYC. While the storm will remain a hurricane at its closest approach we do not expect damaging winds.  Right now hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center of Arthur and tropical storm force winds extend 125 miles from the center.  That means the tri-state areas will remain outside of the radius for tropical storm force winds.

Forecast Discussion:
Scattered downpours and thunderstorms will end 2-4PM for the Hudson Valley, NJ and NYC Metro area. Some clearing is possible too with sunshine making a comeback for Independence Day barbeque plans.  It will take a little longer for Connecticut and Eastern Long island to dry out with rain tapering from 4-8 PM from west to east.

The air will turn noticeably less humid tonight with a refreshing air mass moving in just in time for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look fantastic with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.  Please make sure you check with your local lifeguards before jumping into the ocean.  Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are likely, especially on Saturday.

Forecast:

Today: Rain and thunderstorms early, late afternoon clearing. Not as hot as recent days. High: 76-83.

Tonight: Mostly clear and turning less humid. Low: 56-63.

Tomorrow: Sunny, less humid. High: 83.

Sunday: Delightful! High: 85.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: 88.

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