Another Refreshing Summer Day

You typically use the word "refreshing" to describe a spring or fall day.  But today we're borrowing the adjective in the middle of summer.

Temperatures will start off in the 50s to low 60s this morning, crisp! This will be another unseasonably cool summer day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most.  Humidity will slowly begin to inch up tomorrow (Thursday) with the chance for a late day shower in spots (mainly NW of NYC). Multiple waves of low pressure will keep the chance for showers in the forecast Friday through Sunday.  There are still some timing issues to work out for rain over the weekend. No worries, we'll nail it down for you later this week (hopefully tomorrow).

Today: Partly cloudy, comfy, low humidity. High: 77
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, chance for a late day shower northwest of NYC. High: 80
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, scattered afternoon showers. High: 82

Stormy Start To The Week

The worst of today's weather is moving out and it's only 5 AM! A leftover shower or storm is possible through this afternoon with partly cloudy skies. High: Low 80s.

Drier air will begin to stream in this afternoon behind an approaching cold front. This will help prevent another widespread round of severe weather.  But I can't rule out an isolated strong to severe storm.

Refreshing air moves in by tonight with temps dropping into the the 50s to low 60s. You can open the windows and let some fresh air in. Tomorrow looks gorgeous with low humidity and lows of sunshine. High: near 80.

Heat Breaks Today!

After two to three days of 90+ temps, the heat breaks today.  Don't get me wrong, today will still feel like summer with high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.  It's just not as hot or humid as recent days.

The cold front ushering in the change has stalled just south of Long Island this morning. It will linger around for the first half of the day providing some clouds before it continues to push south again.

Check Out The Front Lingering Near The South Shore of LI This Morning.
Not To Worry, It Will Eventually Creep South During The Day

Tomorrow also looks comfortable with lower humidity and high temperatures in the lower 80s. And once again we continue our stretch of great weekend weather with highs in the lower to middle 80s.  There is a chance for an isolated shower late Sunday.  But most areas should stay dry.  Enjoy!

I'm heading up to Maine for the first time for my hubby's cousin's wedding.  Can't wait.

Feeling Like 95-100

The heat and humidity peak today with highs around 90 degrees.  But it will really feel like 95-100 when you factor in the humidity.  Why? The more moisture there is in the air, the harder it is for your body to sweat and the warmer you feel.

Afternoon thunderstorms are possible with plenty of instability and shear (wind direction changing with height).  But the atmosphere is also "capped". So a trigger mechanism is needed for storms to develop.  Sometimes differences in terrain is all it will take to break through the cap on a hot and humid day like today. But for this reason I think storms will be hit or miss and not widespread. Any storms that develop have the potential to be strong or severe with damaging winds, and even small hail possible.

Tomorrow will remain very warm with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. More numerous storms are possible with a cold frontal passage. Relief in the form of less humid, cooler air arrives Thursday and Friday.

Finally Feeling Like Summer

I was a the pool with my best friend Kim this weekend and she said...

High Temps Today

"Wow, July 5th and it's finally starting to feel like summer."

She made me realize...Summer kind of crept up on us this year!  Although we have had a stretch of stellar weekend weather, it has been cooler than average most of the time. I certainly wasn't complaining but it wasn't exactly typical summer beach weather.  But now it's finally here. So die hard summer fans, be careful what you wish for!

The heat and humidity are creeping up the next couple of days. Today will be partly cloudy, warm and muggy. High: 85-93. There is a chance for a strong afternoon thunderstorm.  While I can't rule one out anywhere in the tri-state area, they will mainly be focused north and west of New York City. Tomorrow will be similar...just a few degrees warmer with a slightly better chance for an afternoon storm.

Scattered storms are likely on Wednesday before less humid air streams in late week.

Your Dayplanner

Close, But No Arthur

9AM Track From The National Hurricane Center 80+ degree water highlighted in orange

Arthur, What You Need To Know:

Here’s the bottom line when it comes to Hurricane Arthur. The hurricane will bring no direct impacts to our weather here in the tri-state area. The heaviest rain and damaging winds will remain offshore. But there are a couple of indirect impacts to talk about.  Moisture moving out ahead of Arthur is interacting with an approaching cold front.  That will bring an increased threat for scattered downpours and thunderstorms Friday morning through late afternoon.  The other indirect impact will be on the beaches.  While Arthur slides safely out to sea, he will churn up the ocean, making for rough surf and dangerous rip currents. 

The Latest On Arthur:

Hurricane Arthur has been downgraded to a category 1 hurricane with winds up to 90 miles an hour. The storm will continue to slowly weaken over the next 24 hours as it moves into cooler water.  Without warm water to fuel Hurricane Arthur, the storm will undergo an “extra tropical transition”.  That’s just a fancy way of saying its structure will become less like a hurricane.

Arthur's Wind Field. Red represents
Hurricane force winds. Yellow for tropical
storm force winds.

The National Hurricane Center track keeps the center of Hurricane Arthur 150 miles southeast of the Montauk and 180 miles away from NYC. While the storm will remain a hurricane at its closest approach we do not expect damaging winds.  Right now hurricane force winds extend 40 miles from the center of Arthur and tropical storm force winds extend 125 miles from the center.  That means the tri-state areas will remain outside of the radius for tropical storm force winds.

Forecast Discussion:

Scattered downpours and thunderstorms will end 2-4PM for the Hudson Valley, NJ and NYC Metro area. Some clearing is possible too with sunshine making a comeback for Independence Day barbeque plans.  It will take a little longer for Connecticut and Eastern Long island to dry out with rain tapering from 4-8 PM from west to east.

The air will turn noticeably less humid tonight with a refreshing air mass moving in just in time for the weekend. Saturday and Sunday look fantastic with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.  Please make sure you check with your local lifeguards before jumping into the ocean.  Dangerous rip currents and rough surf are likely, especially on Saturday.

Forecast:

Today: Rain and thunderstorms early, late afternoon clearing. Not as hot as recent days. High: 76-83.

Tonight: Mostly clear and turning less humid. Low: 56-63.

Tomorrow: Sunny, less humid. High: 83.

Sunday: Delightful! High: 85.

Monday: Partly cloudy. High: 88.

Tropical Storm Arthur, Impacts Our Weather....Kinda

No change to our thinking with Tropical Storm Arthur. the damaging winds and heaviest rain remain offshore as storm spins out to sea, becoming a hurricane. BUT (and you knew this was coming), there will be two major indirect impacts from the storm.  Tropical moisture out ahead of Arthur will feed into an approaching cold front Thursday bringing heavy rain, especially Thu PM into the overnight. Up to 2" is possible in spots with flash flooding concerns. Another major indirect impact will be rough surf and dangerous rip currents for 4th of July weekend.

It looks like the general model consensus is to shift the storm's track farther east than yesterday.

Craig Treadway Is The Man!

I just had to share this pic because it makes me laugh. Craig is filling in for Kori this week and I think he's loving every minute of it!  For actual important weather related posts, see below. ;)

Future Arthur Churning Up The Ocean July 4th Weekend

Tropical Depression 1 is forecast to become the first named storm of the season, Arthur! Staying offshore. But the storm will bring rough surf and potentially dangerous rip currents on some of the biggest beach days of the year!

Another indirect impact from the storm...tropical moisture will feed into an approaching front, w/some heavier downpours Thu night-early Friday. Fireworks displays may still be OK July 4th as we start to dry out. But it's a close call (especially in CT).