For forecast details about the next 4 days, check my previous post.
|Great summary from NWS Boston|
The storm in question is located over the Pacific Ocean. Computer models work by taking a combination of weather observations and satellite data to get a picture of what’s going on in the atmosphere. But observations from buoys are more sparse than weather stations on land. While computer models will attempt to fill in the gaps, it’s not always perfect. We call this poor sampling. And my teacher in Meteo 201 used to say “garbage in, garbage out”. If the data used to feed computer models is wrong (or unavailable) the resulting forecast will be wrong. Errors amplify with time. This is one of the reasons why we send airplanes into hurricanes to gather data. Until this storm moves over land (and that will not happen until Friday) the forecast remains highly uncertain.
This storm will go on to produce much needed heavy rain Friday – Saturday for areas on the west coast that are in extreme to exceptional drought. The Plains and Midwest will be up next with severe weather and heavy snow Sunday. On Monday, it’s the east coast’s turn. But as usual, the exact track and strength of the storm will determine the impact. The GFS is colder with significant, plowable snow for New England.
The European model is warmer with snow changing over to a mix, then back to snow. Neither model is going to be exactly right at this time (remember: garbage in, garbage out) but for what it’s worth the GFS has a better track record this year.
|The GFS (one of the major american computer models) for|
Monday afternoon. This model is colder and shows all snow
Monday with snow showers lingering into Tuesday & Wednesday