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Friday, February 28, 2014

Mainly Dry Weekend & A Southern Trend For Monday's Storm. Will It Hold?

Bridgeport broke two records today.  9 degrees is the new record low. And 24 degrees is now the coldest high temperature on record for February 28. Brutal cold continues into Saturday morning with temperatures ranging from -3 to 7 around sunrise.  The rest of the weekend will feature a little uptick in temperature (still below average though). On Saturday clouds will thicken up, becoming mostly cloudy with a high temperature around 30 degrees. Clouds will win out Sunday. While most of the day stays dry, a few rain or snow showers are possible with highs in the low to mid 30s. Our next storm arrives Sunday night. Steady snow will pick up around the time of the Monday morning commute before ending early-mid afternoon.

More on Monday:

This isn’t a set up you would look for to get a big storm.  An arctic front comes through Sunday, stalling just south of Connecticut with several waves of low pressure riding along it. With arctic air in place just in time for the first wave of low pressure, we are anticipating all snow with this event. There will be a tight temperature and moisture gradient around to our south creating a battlezone and a sweet spot where the heaviest snow will fall.  In this area I expect a band of 6”-12”.  Outside of that band, less. Today the latest data keeps the heaviest snow just south of New England with 3”-7” for most of the state with the higher end of that range in southern Connecticut and the lowest amounts toward the CT/MA border. So will that trend continue? Or will the models flip flop to their original configuration over the weekend, putting Connecticut back in the higher amounts? A shift in the stationary front by 50 miles north would double accumulations. A 50 mile shift south could cut accumulations in half. The track is that critical. With all the uncertainty at this time we are waiting for a little more consistency before issuing a final forecast.

Tonight: Clear, cold. Low: -3 to 7.

Tomorrow: Cold start with temperatures in the single digits to around zero. Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy. High temperatures around the 30 degree mark.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few light snow or rain showers. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Steady snow developing overnight.

Monday: Snow, lasting through early to mid afternoon. High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High temperatures in the middle 20s.

Wednesday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the middle 20s. A warm up is expected late week.

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