Mainly Dry Weekend & A Southern Trend For Monday's Storm. Will It Hold?

Bridgeport broke two records today.  9 degrees is the new record low. And 24 degrees is now the coldest high temperature on record for February 28. Brutal cold continues into Saturday morning with temperatures ranging from -3 to 7 around sunrise.  The rest of the weekend will feature a little uptick in temperature (still below average though). On Saturday clouds will thicken up, becoming mostly cloudy with a high temperature around 30 degrees. Clouds will win out Sunday. While most of the day stays dry, a few rain or snow showers are possible with highs in the low to mid 30s. Our next storm arrives Sunday night. Steady snow will pick up around the time of the Monday morning commute before ending early-mid afternoon.

More on Monday:

This isn’t a set up you would look for to get a big storm.  An arctic front comes through Sunday, stalling just south of Connecticut with several waves of low pressure riding along it. With arctic air in place just in time for the first wave of low pressure, we are anticipating all snow with this event. There will be a tight temperature and moisture gradient around to our south creating a battlezone and a sweet spot where the heaviest snow will fall.  In this area I expect a band of 6”-12”.  Outside of that band, less. Today the latest data keeps the heaviest snow just south of New England with 3”-7” for most of the state with the higher end of that range in southern Connecticut and the lowest amounts toward the CT/MA border. So will that trend continue? Or will the models flip flop to their original configuration over the weekend, putting Connecticut back in the higher amounts? A shift in the stationary front by 50 miles north would double accumulations. A 50 mile shift south could cut accumulations in half. The track is that critical. With all the uncertainty at this time we are waiting for a little more consistency before issuing a final forecast.

Tonight: Clear, cold. Low: -3 to 7.

Tomorrow: Cold start with temperatures in the single digits to around zero. Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy. High temperatures around the 30 degree mark.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few light snow or rain showers. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Steady snow developing overnight.

Monday: Snow, lasting through early to mid afternoon. High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cold. High temperatures in the middle 20s.

Wednesday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the middle 20s. A warm up is expected late week.

Arctic Cold Tonight/Tomorrow

The coldest air of the week will greet you Friday morning with wind chill values between -20 and -5 degrees. The afternoon doesn’t offer much reprieve. Temperatures will struggle to hit the 20 degree mark. Saturday is dry and not quite as cold. A few snow showers are possible Sunday but most of the day will stay dry.

The same storm that will bring heavy rain to drought stricken California on Friday will trek across the country this weekend. Plowable snow is becoming increasingly likely on Monday. There is still a lot of disagreement within the computer models.  This is to be expected since the storm is still over the Pacific Ocean tonight. (For more on a bit how computer models work, check out my last blog post.) 

Here’s what I can tell you.  This does NOT look like the set up to produce a blockbuster storm for us in New England.  No bombogenesis. No counting snow totals by the foot.  The worst case scenario for anyone in this storm from the Midwest to the east coast is a narrow band of 6”-12”.  Everyone else gets less! So does Connecticut fall within the jackpot amount? Or does the heaviest stuff just miss southern New England?  Those details will be ironed out in the next couple of days.  For now, plan on snow developing overnight Sunday and lasting through Monday.  Two commutes could be affected by this storm. But how much of an impact is still to be determined. 

Tonight: Early snow shower/flurry in spots. Low: 0-9. Wind chills between -20 to -5.

Tomorrow: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. Breezy start with wind diminishing. High temperatures in the upper 10s and lower 20s, about 20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy. High temperatures in the lower 30s inland, middle 30s for the shoreline.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few snow showers. But most of the day looks dry. High temperatures around the 30 degree mark. Steady snow developing overnight.

Monday: Snow through the evening commute. Still a lot of uncertainty regarding the storm's track and accumulations. High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Tuesday: Any lingering snow showers ending early in the morning. Otherwise, clouds breaking for sunshine. Breezy and cold. High temperatures in the middle 20s.

Monday's Potential Storm

For forecast details about the next 4 days, check my previous post.  

Great summary from NWS Boston

There is a lot of chatter about a big winter storm.  5 days ago a coastal storm was possible today (Wednesday) but the ingredients didn't come together.  So a lot can change when looking out to Monday’s potential storm.  I know it’s not fun to hear a meteorologist say…'we don’t know yet'.  But at least I can give you the reason why.

The storm in question is located over the Pacific Ocean.  Computer models work by taking a combination of weather observations and satellite data to get a picture of what’s going on in the atmosphere. But observations from buoys are more sparse than weather stations on land.  While computer models will attempt to fill in the gaps, it’s not always perfect.  We call this poor sampling.  And my teacher in Meteo 201 used to say “garbage in, garbage out”.  If the data used to feed computer models is wrong (or unavailable) the resulting forecast will be wrong. Errors amplify with time. This is one of the reasons why we send airplanes into hurricanes to gather data.   Until this storm moves over land (and that will not happen until Friday) the forecast remains highly uncertain. 

This storm will go on to produce much needed heavy rain Friday – Saturday for areas on the west coast that are in extreme to exceptional drought. The Plains and Midwest will be up next with severe weather and heavy snow Sunday.  On Monday, it’s the east coast’s turn.  But as usual, the exact track and strength of the storm will determine the impact. The GFS is colder with significant, plowable snow for New England.

The GFS (one of the major american computer models) for
Monday afternoon. This model is colder and shows all snow
Monday with snow showers lingering into Tuesday & Wednesday

The European model is warmer with snow changing over to a mix, then back to snow.  Neither model is going to be exactly right at this time (remember: garbage in, garbage out) but for what it’s worth the GFS has a better track record this year.

The ECMWF or "European" computer model for Monday afternoon.
This model is warmer and shows snow changing to a mix then back to snow.

For now, some impact from this storm is increasingly likely.  But snow totals, precipitation type and intensity are to be determined. 

Hit Or Miss Snow Thursday, COLD Friday!

While most of Thursday will be dry, another round of hit or miss snow showers will fire up in the afternoon.  A quick coating of snow is possible in spots with up to an inch if your town gets stuck in a heavier squall.   Winds will howl in the afternoon and evening, ushering in the coldest air of the week. Wind chills will plummet from -15 to-5 by Friday morning with temperatures struggling to hit 20 by afternoon. Most of the weekend looks dry with the chance for a more significant snow Monday.

Forecast wind chills for Friday morning

Tonight: Clear, cold. Low: 0-10.

Tomorrow: Sunshine mixing with clouds. Chance for a snow shower/squall, mainly in the afternoon. A quick coating is possible. High temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Breezy.

Friday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine, windy. High temperatures in the upper 10s and lower 20s, about 20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Saturday: Increasing clouds, becoming mostly cloudy. High temperatures in the lower 30s inland, middle 30s for the shoreline.

Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a passing snow shower or some flurries. But most of the day looks dry. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a passing snow shower or some flurries. But most of the day looks dry. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

The Shoreline Gets The Jackpot This Year

This is the 7th snowiest season on record for Bridgeport! There is still plenty of time to climb in the ranking! Thanks to NWS New York's Ashley Sears for sending me the records (which go back to 1948)

Bridgeport's Top Ten Snowiest Years

1) 75.7     1995-1996

2) 64.4     2012-2013

3) 64.0     2002-2003

4) 62.6     2010-2011

5) 61.7     1966-1967

6) 57.0     2004-2005

7) 56.2     2013-2014 (current season)

8) 55.3     2000-2001

9) 55.1     1993-1994

10) 52.8   1977-1978

Hartford is not even close....

Hartford's Top Ten Snowiest Years
1) 115.2    1995-96
2) 86.4      2010-11
3) 84.9      1993-94
4) 82.8      1966-67
5) 82.3      1977-78
6) 80.2      1960-61
7) 79.9      1945-46
8) 77.7      1947-48
9) 77.1      1915-16
10) 76.1    1955-56

A Lot Of Little Snow Events

Snow Showers Wednesday, A Coating In Spots

Several disturbances will bring the chance for nuisance variety snow this week.  But ingredients for a big storm will not come together…yet.  On Wednesday scattered snow showers through early/mid afternoon could coat the ground in spots.  Thursday starts off bright but an arctic front charging in during the afternoon will bring another round of snow showers. Behind the front, Friday will be the coldest day of the week. But at least we get a one day break from the snow. Flurries return by Saturday! Snow will develop again late Sunday. A bigger snow storm or winter storm is possible next Monday. But we are still 6 days away at this point and a lot of details need to be ironed out. A lot can change in 6 days. We’ll keep an eye on it for you!

Tonight: Some clearing. Winds diminishing. Low: 11-18.

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers through early-mid afternoon. A dusting or coating in spots. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30.

Thursday: Mostly sunny start, increasing clouds. Chance for an afternoon snow shower/squall. A coating in spots. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Friday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the lower 20s, about 20 degrees below average for this time of year.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few flurries. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance for snow late day or at night. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

I know it seems cold but this is only the 32nd coldest winter on record! 

Winter Is Back

The 50 degree warmth from the weekend is just a distant memory now.  Winter cold is back and it’s going to get colder before the week is done. Tuesday is partly cloudy and breezy with a gusty west wind. A coastal storm remains offshore on Wednesday, grazing Connecticut with a few snow showers and little or no accumulation.  Additional snow showers are possible Thursday, this time from an arctic front.  This front will usher in the coldest air of the week for Friday with high in the low 20s!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 15-20.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, breezy. West wind 10 to 20 miles an hour. High temperature in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a few snow showers with little or no accumulation. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30.

Thursday: Increasing clouds, chance for a snow squall in the afternoon that might whiten the ground. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, very cold! High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for snow showers or a period of light snow. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Weekend Thaw

Recent sounds of winter include winds rattling the windows, ice pelting the ground, and even thunder!  But Saturday the only weather related sound you will hear is the ‘drip, drip, drip’ of snow and ice melting from rooftops everywhere. Temperatures will soar through the 40s with plenty of sunshine. Some towns may even flirt with the 50 degree mark! Sunday will remain mild with increasing clouds and the chance for a late day shower. But this warm up doesn’t last long, cold returns next week in phases.  30s are back as early as Monday. But “polar vortex cold” is in the forecast for late next week with temperatures diving back into the 20s.  That’s about 20 degrees below average for this time of year!  Winter isn’t over yet.

Tonight: Early shower. Clearing. Low: 25-30.

Tomorrow: Becoming mostly sunny. Mild, lots of melting. High temperatures in the upper 40s to around around 50 degrees.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance for a late shower. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s. Chance for flurries at night.

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds, cooler. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a snow shower. High temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Wednesday: Watching the potential for yet another snow storm. Snow showers would develop in the morning and taper off around/after the evening commute.

Don't Look Now....Another Storm's A Brewin'

While we try to catch our breath from the last storm, another one is already gearing up for Saturday.   Once again, this storm will rapidly drop in pressure undergoing “bombogenesis”. It’s not often I get to use that word twice in one month (let alone a couple of days). Connecticut is going to be on the western periphery of this one. But the latest model trend has been to bring the storm closer to Connecticut which means more accumulation.  If that trend continues, we may need to bump up accumulations even more. 

This is a very tough forecast with extreme disagreement among the various computer models we look at.  That’s typical 3 days in advance. But 24 hours in advance and I start to get a little worried. But I digress…here’s my best stab at a forecast. Light snow will develop, mainly in the afternoon.  Snow will become a bit heavier at night before ending around midnight. 1”-4” of accumulation is possible with higher amounts up to 6” or more in southeastern Connecticut.

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 20s.

Tomorrow: Light snow developing, mainly in the afternoon. Snow picking up in intensity at night. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Snow ends around midnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, seasonably cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late. High temperature in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Snow showers possible at night.

Tuesday: Snow showers ending early in the morning. Noticeably milder with a mix of sunshine and clouds. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, milder. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

6"-12", Round Two Tonight

Most of the state received 6”-12” of snow with lower amounts in southeastern Connecticut and higher amounts in southwestern Connecticut.  Right now we’re in a lull in the action with a light wintry mix persisting for a while. But heavy rain and sleet will change back over to snow between 9PM-midnight.  With loads of instability and moisture, don’t be surprised if you hear/see some thunder snow! An additional coating to 4” is likely with locally higher amounts in western Connecticut if someone gets caught in a heavier snow band.  Winds continue to gust up to 40 mph with temperatures holding steady or rising for a period of time, then crashing back below freezing towards daybreak.

Snow will end around daybreak on Friday morning but plows will continue to play catch up during the morning commute. The rest of the day looks dry and a bit milder than recent days. In fact, we’ll even see a bit of melting. A storm will pass well out to sea on Saturday. But the latest trend has been to bring that snow farther inland allowing Connecticut to get side swiped.  A coating to a few inches of snow accumulation is possible. Milder air returns next week with several days in the 40s.

Tonight: Heavy sleet/snow redeveloping. An additional coating to 4” with locally higher amounts in the northwest hills. Low: 28-32.

Tomorrow: Any leftover snow ending 4-8 AM. Clouds breaking for some sun. A bit milder. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday: A period of snow. Some accumulation is possible. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Sunday: Wall to wall sunshine, seasonably cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late. High temperature in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Snow showers possible at night.

Tuesday: Noticeably milder with a mix of sunshine and clouds. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

Two Rounds Of Snow With A Mix In Between

A few flurries are possible tonight before the main event. Snow will start off light predawn Thursday, picking up in intensity as the morning progresses. 1”-2” per hour snowfall rates are possible at times.

Then as the storm gets closer, a southeasterly wind will pull in some milder air. Snow will mix in and change over to sleet, freezing rain and rain from southeast to northwest. While some shoreline areas could see mixing in the morning, most towns will hold off until the afternoon.

A lull in the action is expected late day through early evening with just a light wintry mix. 

Then as cooler air comes in on the backside of the storm, precipitation changes back over to heavy snow. Some of the models show blizzard conditions for a few hours after midnight Friday.

Snow comes to an end as temperatures tank heading into Friday morning. This means the morning commute will still be icy/snowy. 

The rest of the day looks dry with clouds breaking for some sunshine.

Accumulations: 3”-6” for southeastern Connecticut, 6”-10” of snow for most of the state with higher amounts in the northwest hills. Remember, this snow comes in two rounds (with a messy mix in between).

Timing: 4-8am Thursday to 4-8 am Friday.

Wind: Gusts increasing up to 35 mph inland, 45 mph for the shoreline, peaking in the afternoon Thursday through Friday morning.

Rest of the week.

Tonight: Few flurries. Steady snow arriving 4-8 am. Low: 15-20

Tomorrow: Snow developing early, mixing/changing over to ice and rain from southeast to northwest during the afternoon. Becoming windy. A change back to snow at night into early Friday. High: Low to mid 30s

Friday: Any leftover snow ending 4-8 AM. A rough morning commute for many. Clouds breaking for some sun. A bit milder. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a morning snow shower, partly cloudy, cooler. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Sunday: Wall to wall sunshine, seasonably cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, clouds increasing late. High temperature in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Snow showers possible at night.

Snow To Rain To Snow

Tonight is another cold one with temperatures dropping below zero for a some inland areas tonight. Wednesday is the calm before the storm with sunny skies.  Snow will develop in the predawn hours Thursday, starting off light at first and slowly picking up in intensity. As warmer air punches into the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, snow will mix in and change over to sleet and then rain. That transition will happen from southeast to northwest with the lowest to highest snowfall accumulations respectively. Winds will gust up to 35 mph inland, 45 mph for the shoreline. Some poor drainage flooding is possible too with snow/ice covered gutters and storm drains. Rain/sleet will change back to snow as the storm moves out early Friday morning.

Right now we’re forecasting 6”-10” of snow for the I-84 corridor north and west with up to 12” in the northwest hills. 3”-6” of snow is forecast south of that area with more mixing with rain. What a mess!  The rain/snow line is key to accumulations here.  A little change in track can mean a big difference.  So we need to watch the forecast very carefully over the next 24 hours. We’ll keep you posted with any changes as the latest data comes in

.

Tonight: Cold, clear. Low: -5 to 10.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, less wind than recent days. Remaining cooler than average. High temperatures in the middle 20s.

Thursday: Snow developing early, mixing/changing over to ice and rain from southeast to northwest. High temperatures in the low 30s.

Friday: Any leftover snow ending early. A mix of sun and clouds. A bit milder. High temperatures in the upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a morning snow shower, partly cloudy, cooler. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Sunday: Wall to wall sunshine, seasonably cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s.

More Questions Than Answers For Thursday

The Euro shows a burst of heavy snow
changing over to a mix/rain

The next couple of days look dry but cool with high pressure in control and high temperatures in the 20s. A winter storm is becoming increasingly likely for Thursday. But exact details remain uncertain until we can get a better idea of the storm's track and intensity. A lot of that will hinge on high pressure that will be stationed over Connecticut the next couple of days.  If that high breaks down and moves east, the storm will pull in some milder and track closer to Connecticut.  That would mean snow to start, changing over to a mix/rain. 

The GFS remains all snow but has
considerably less with the storm
remaining well offshore.

If the high remains stubborn, the storm will track farther out to sea (east) which would mean all snow (possibly heavy). But too far away and we just get grazed! We should have a better handle on everything early Tuesday.  Trust me, I’m anxiously awaiting a more concrete forecast as well. Meanwhile that same storm will bring a combination of snow and ice to places in the southeast (like Atlanta) that were paralyzed after the last winter storm.

Hoping this storm doesn’t hit big? Hoping for a February thaw? Well you’re in luck NEXT week.  For now, it’s more of the same.

Above average temperatures next week!

Tonight: Clear: Low: Clear, cold. Lows: 5-12.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, cool.  High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s. Breezy. Northwest wind at 10 to 20 miles an hour.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, less wind than recent days. Remaining cooler than average. High temperatures in the lower to middle 20s.

Thursday: Snow developing, may mix in or change over to rain. Still a lot of uncertainty in the track of this storm. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Friday: Any leftover snow ending early. A mix of sun and clouds. A bit milder. High temperatures in the upper 30s.

Saturday: Morning clouds breaking for sunshine, cooler. High temperatures in the middle 30s.

Two different scenarios

Watching Thursday

A winter storm is becoming increasingly likely for Thursday. But exact details remain uncertain until we can get a better idea of the storm's track and intensity. A track closer to CT would mean more warmer air with snow changing over to a mix/rain. A track farther out to sea would mean all snow (possibly heavy). But too far away and we just get grazed! I think we'll have a better handle on this early tomorrow so we can at least narrow down the possibilities.

Quiet For the Anniversary Of the 2013 Blizzard

February 8-9, 2014

One year ago Saturday, snow poured from the sky at a rate of six inches per hour at times with a grand total around three feet for some.  This year is quiet in comparison.  A big storm will stay well southeast of New England this weekend.  Clouds will increase throughout the day on Saturday.  But we’re not completely snow free. A smaller disturbance could bring a few snow showers or a period of light snow late Sunday into Sunday night. 1"-4" is possible by Monday morning.

Tonight: Mostly clear, a big range in temperatures. Low: -5 to 20

Tomorrow: Sunny start, increasing afternoon clouds. Cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance for a snow shower or a period of light snow, mainly late in the day and at night. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Monday: Decreasing clouds, becoming mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Tuesday: Sunny but colder than recent days! High temperatures will remain in the middle 20s.

Wednesday: Lots of sunshine, increasing clouds late. High temperatures around the 30 degree mark.

Radar February 8-9, 2013

No Big Weekend Storm

Now that February is here, the sun is a bit stronger and can help melt snow and ice, even when the temperature fails to climb above the freezing point. While melting is convenient for getting rid of that extra layer of snow on the driveway during the day, the refreezing process can contribute to black ice at night. Slick spots are the only concern the next couple of days as our break from winter weather continues. Some light snow is possible on Sunday. But a big weekend storm remains unlikely.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low: 5-15.

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Saturday: Sunny start, increasing afternoon clouds. Cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Sunday: A few snow showers or a period of light snow. A small accumulation is possible. But the brunt of the storm stays out to sea. High temperature in the lower 30s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Tuesday: Sunny but noticeably colder than recent days! High temperatures will remain in the upper teens and lower 20s.

A Wintry MESS!

Snow arrived right on cue 2-4 am Wednesday.  The mixing line arrived on time too with sleet and freezing rain working north from the shoreline throughout the morning.  But one part of the storm exceeded expectations…the front end thump of snow.  We had snowfall rates of 1”-3” per hour for a while leaving DOT crews helpless to keep up with the mess. Snowfall rates ranged from 3”-5” in southeastern CT.  With 6”-10” for a majority of the state.  Most of us have around a foot of snow on the ground when you combine the snow from the last storm to the snow that fell today!

After two winter storms this week alone, many are looking forward to a much needed break from the snow (and sleet and freezing rain). You can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that we have at least three dry days on the way. But a lot of people have been worried about the potential for another bigger snow storm this weekend. Right now, the latest trend is to bring the storm farther out to sea. That means a glancing blow with a few snow showers and a little accumulation but NOT a major nor’easter.

For snowfall totals click on the following links:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?

site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?

site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS

Tonight: Lingering flurries and freezing drizzle. Late clearing. Low: 15-20

Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, chilly. High temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Saturday: sunny, cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Sunday: Increasing clouds with snow developing. A small accumulation is possible. But right now the brunt of the storm stays out to sea. High temperature around 30 degrees.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Typical New England Winter Storm

Many of the storms we endured in January were accompanied by arctic air and a light fluffy snow. Not this time! With temperatures hovering around the freezing point, this storm will bring heavy wet snow AND a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and rain. What a mess!

Accumulations: 3”-4” for the shoreline, 4”-8” inland, Up to 10” toward the MA border and in far northwest Connecticut. Accumulations will be lower in southern Connecticut where more mixing will occur.

Timing: Snow arrives 2AM-4AM.  The heaviest snow will fall during the morning commute.  Snow will then mix in and change over to sleet and freezing rain from south to north.  Some areas northwest of Hartford may stay entirely as snow.  And Connecticut’s beaches will change over to rain for a little while.  Snow/mix will taper off through the mid afternoon and evening becoming lighter. The storm slowly pulls away at night.

Impacts: School cancelations, difficult snow/ice removal.  A few outages are possible with the heavy wet snow and ice but I’m not expecting widespread problems. Slippery roads with a combination of snow and slush!

We get another few days break at least. The next storm to watch will be Sunday night into Monday.  Right now there are still plenty of questions as to the track of this storm.  Our newest data shows the storm trending farther out to sea bringing far less of an impact. But with the current pattern, we will need to keep a close eye on things.

Tonight: Snow developing before daybreak. Low: Low to mid 20s.

Tomorrow: Snow, heavy at times through the morning commute. Sleet/freezing rain/rain mixing in for southern and central CT. Precipitation tapering off throughout the afternoon and evening. High: Low to mid 30s

Thursday: Mostly sunny, chilly. High temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures around 30 degrees

Sunday: Increasing clouds, chance for snow developing late and at night. Still lots of uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. High temperature around 30 degrees.

One Down, Two To Go!

A daily maximum snowfall record was set in Bridgeport today with 6.4”. This breaks the previous record of 5.7” on February 3, 1996. Tomorrow we get a break in the action with partly cloudy skies. But it doesn’t last long. More snow begins 2-4 am Wednesday with heavy snow making for a messy morning commute.  Some mixing is possible for southern Connecticut which could hold down accumulations. But there is still some question as to how far north the mixing occurs.  If the storm moves farther southeast from Connecticut, there could be less mixing and more snow for the shoreline. So keep up to date on the forecast as we continue to refine the forecast..

Then another (perhaps the biggest) storm is in the pipeline for Sunday night into Monday as this active pattern continues. We may need to bring back the term bombogenesis! Remember that one? Bombogenesis refers to a storm dropping 24+ mb within a 24 hour period. This could be a classic nor’easter with some of the highest snowfall totals of the year so far. But with the storm still 6+ days away, there is still a lot of time for us to get a handle on the forecast and time for the forecast to change!

Tonight: Some clearing. Low: 15-20.

Tomorrow: Sunshine mixing in with afternoon clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. Snow developing late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday: Snow, heavy at times through the morning commute. Some mixing is possible in southern Connecticut. Steady snow tapering to snow showers in the mid-late afternoon. High temps in the mid 30s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, chilly. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, cool. High temperatures around 30 degrees.