Little has changed in my thinking from the post below. My greatest uncertainty lies in tomorrow night's forecast. Some of the mesoscale models (NAM, RPM) have a big ol' bullseye with heavy snow in western Connecticut. This precip field looks weird to me with heavy snow setting up hundreds of miles from the storm's center. The NAM tends to be horrible outside of 24 hours. So I'm not freaking out yet. But this is the 5th run in a row with the same trend so it makes you wonder!
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