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Friday, January 22, 2016

Critical 30 Miles!

While parts of northern Connecticut will get little/no accumulation, some on the shore could get slammed with double digit snow totals. It’s a shoreline special!

Your storm cliffs notes:

Starts: Daybreak for southern Connecticut slowly overspreading the state from south to north and reaching the Massachusetts border by afternoon.
Heaviest snow: 3 pm – 10 pm
Ends: Around midnight, give or take a couple hours.
Accumulations: Little or nothing in far northern CT with up to a foot in southwestern areas
Additional Concerns: Minor coastal flooding, gusty winds, blowing and drifting of snow (low visibility)

Forecast Details:

Not only will be have snow around tomorrow, but gusty winds too! On the shoreline winds could
gust up to 40-50 miles an hour. While that’s not enough to produce widespread power outages. Scattered outages are a possibility.  Inland gusts will be up to 30-40 miles an hour. Blowing snow and reduced visibility will likely be a concern too. This isn’t a beautiful snow flakes gently falling on your head type of storm. Snow will whip you in the face.

Coastal flooding looks to be minor at this time for both high tide cycles Saturday.
There will be a big range in accumulation over a short distance. That’s one of the reasons this storm
has been so tough to forecast, and still is. Imagine the track shifts north by 30 miles. That’s the difference between 4-8” or 8-12”. A shift south would be the difference between 4”-8” and just 1”-4”. So this is a high stakes forecast. Because a 30 mile shift is the difference between a high impact event and a low impact event.

Our computer guidance is still all over the place. Some of our computer models are still suggesting over a foot of snow well inland which is a lot more than our current forecast (NAM, RPM). Other computer models are lower than our current forecast with up to 4” on the high end for the shoreline (RGEM). Now it’s a meteorologist’s job to take what the computer models say and draw their own interpretation.  This is why you will find different forecasts on different news outlets. Wish us luck! My sanity depends on it.

Tonight: Cloudy, dry. Low: 20-25.
Tomorrow: Snow in the shore around daybreak, slowly overspreading the state. High: 25-29.
Sunday: Becoming sunny. High: 34-37.
Monday: Mostly sunny, not as cold. High: Upper 30s-Near 40
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a shower. High: Mid 40s.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High: Near 40. 

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