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Monday, October 27, 2014

Weather Headlines:
  • Milder 2 days, Near 70
  • Shower late Wednesday
  • Cooler Thursday & Friday
  • Cold this weekend, stormy too?
Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly clear with increasing clouds late. Low: Upper 30s to middle 40s.

Tomorrow: Early morning clouds break for sunshine. Warmer! High: Mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, chance for a late day shower. Mild. High: Mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High: Upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

Friday: Partly cloudy and cool. High: Mid 50s.

Friday night: Mid to upper 40s around sunset for Trick or treaters!

Saturday: Cloudy, cool, raw, windy and wet with showers (rain may even mix with some wet snow, especially in the hills). High temperatures in the middle and upper 40s.

Weather Discussion:
Where Does the Low go? Look at the spread in storm
location within just one computer model.  TOO EARLY!
The next couple of days will be warmer with highs between 65 and 70 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday. But don’t get used to it!  A cold front late Wednesday will bring the chance for a shower or sprinkle followed by cooler air Thursday and beyond.

There is a lot of chatter about snow this week!  Normally, I try to avoid hyping up events that are 6 days away…for obvious reasons. Errors in forecasting grow over time and there is a big disparity between the various models that we look at.  Yes, it’s going to get cold by this weekend with high temps in the 40s.  And yes, a storm will develop near New England. But the track and intensity of this storm is still in question. For one, there is no downstream blocking that snow lovers want to see for a nice long duration event. This should be a fast mover. Plus the NAO looks like it will be trending positive (another strike for snow lovers).  The forecast hinges on the northern and southern branches of the jet stream and whether or not that energy phases and where. We’re tracking energy that has to travel all the way from Alaska!  So for now prep for a cold and windy day with the chance for some showers .  Rain could mix or even change over to some wet snow in spots (especially in the hills).  But I wouldn’t break out the snow gear just yet.

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