Don't say I Didn't Warn Ya!

My post from last Friday about today's surprise snow:

"As the storm begins to pull away, some cooler air will get pulled into New England and rain may switch over to a period of sleet or snow Sunday night into Monday.  There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the amount of cool air and precip we could get during this time. But we’re watching Monday morning closely as there could be trouble spots for the commute. Snow and sleet for the final day of March??? This year, nothing surprises me!"

I didn't end up looking at the forecast all weekend (otherwise it wouldn't be a weekend). Granted, my wording 72 hours out didn't include a coating -4" of snow. I guess I would be mad too if I was stuck in traffic for 2.5 hours. 

Wintry End To March

Snow at the end of March is not unheard of. Connecticut has received measurable snow through May with 1.3” in 1977. After a wintry end to March, April starts off feeling like spring. Sunshine will greet you Tuesday with high temps in the 50s. The timing and placement of a cold front will determine how mild we get on Wednesday. If the front clears the area early, temperatures will soar up near 60 degrees. But if clouds linger through the afternoon, temperatures could get stuck about ten degrees cooler. The next best chance for rain is late Thursday and again Friday night into Saturday morning. 

By the way, if you think this March was unusually cold, you would be right! Temperatures for the month ran 6.5 degrees below average.  This will end up being the 5^th or 6^th coldest March on record since 1905 (it’s a close call).

Tonight: Clearing, winds diminish. Low: 26-32.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, pleasant, milder. High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. Increasing clouds at night.

Wednesday: Clouds break for sunshine. Mild with high temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a late day or evening shower. High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. High temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Showers developing at night.

Saturday: Morning showers give way to a dry afternoon with some clearing. High temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

March Madness

A Flood Watch is in effect this weekend with 2”-3” likely and locally higher amounts. Poor drainage flooding, ponding on the roads and basement flooding are all possible with periods of heavy rain. The ground is still partially frozen which makes it harder to absorb all the water. Luckily, rivers are running low right now. March rainfall totals are running 2” below average. But smaller rivers and streams will need to be monitored, especially in areas that receive 3” of rain or more. 

If you have to spend any time outside this weekend, tomorrow morning will be the most ideal. Any early morning sunshine will fade fast with skies turning cloudy. Rain will develop in the afternoon with the heaviest arriving Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rest of Sunday looks cloudy, cool and raw with scattered showers and drizzle.

As the storm begins to pull away, some cooler air will get pulled into New England and rain may switch over to a period of sleet or snow Sunday night into Monday.  There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the amount of cool air and precip we could get during this time. But we’re watching Monday morning closely as there could be trouble spots for the commute. Snow and sleet for the final day of March??? This year, nothing surprises me!

Warmth creeps back in starting on Tuesday with temperatures approaching 60 degrees. Spring at last.

Tonight: Early showers, then some clearing. Low: 36-40.

Tomorrow: Dry start, becoming cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, coming down heavy at times through the evening. High temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday: Heaviest rain ending in the morning. Remaining cloudy and cool with showers and drizzle. High temperatures in the lower 40s. Chance for snow/sleet in spots at night.

Monday: Early rain/snow/sleet in parts of the state. Late clearing possible. High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, warming up! High temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, feeling like spring again! High temperatures around 60 degrees. 

Still Feeling Like Winter Tomorrow

Winds will slowly diminish tonight. Notice I said slowly. You may still hear the window rattling before you go to bed tonight. By tomorrow morning, near record cold is possible with temperatures in the teens.  The record for Windsor Locks is 16 degrees set in 1960. The record in Bridgeport is 20 degrees set in 2001 and 1966.

Even though we’ll get rid of the wind tomorrow, you will still need a heavier coat on Thursday with temperatures running 10-15 degrees below average. Spring will try to make a comeback on Friday with highs in the 50s. But the milder air also comes with lots of clouds and a shower or two.  The weekend starts of dry and mild. Rain will develop Saturday afternoon, coming down heavy at times. As cooler air returns on Sunday rain could change over to a wintry mix.

Tonight: Clearing, near record cold. Low: 9-16.

Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with some high clouds mixing in late day. Remaining cooler than average. High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with the chance for a shower or two. High temperatures in the lower 50s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, coming down heavy at times through the evening. High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

Sunday: Rain continues through midday, may end as a wintry mix. Cooler than recent days. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny, pleasant. High temperatures in the lower 50s.

A MISS

A massive coastal developing tonight will remain too far east to feel significant impacts here in Connecticut. While Cape Cod will get blizzard conditions with gusts to hurricane force, Connecticut will get some light snow showers/flurries and a few gusts to 30 or 40 miles an hour. Saying that we’re dodging a bullet would be a major understatement. This storm will turn into the equivalent of a winter hurricane with wave heights up to 40 feet. But the storm will impact fish more than anyone else.

Tonight: Light snow/flurries developing after midnight. Little or no accumulation for most of the state with up to an inch in far eastern Connecticut. Low: 20s.

Tomorrow: An early flurry in spots followed by some clearing. Windy with gusts up to 40 miles an hour. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Thursday: A mix of sunshine and high clouds. Remaining cooler than average. High temperatures in the lower 40s to middle 40s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with the chance for a shower or two. High temperatures in the lower 50s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing in the afternoon, coming down heavy at times through the evening. High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

Sunday: Rain continues through midday. Cooler than recent days with some clearing late in the day. High temperatures in the upper 40s.

Living On The Edge!

Connecticut stays on the western periphery of the storm

A developing ocean storm will resemble a winter hurricane with gusts to 70+ mph and waves up to 40 feet.  Luckily this storm will stay well offshore, bringing only fringe effects to us here in Connecticut.

Heaviest snow stays east

Clouds will increase on Tuesday. A few flurries could sneak in during the afternoon but most of the day looks dry. More numerous snow showers will develop at night through Wednesday morning. A coating to 1” is possible for most, with higher amounts up to 2-3” in parts of eastern Connecticut.

Tonight: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 12-20.

Tomorrow: Increasing clouds. Chance for a flurry in spots in the afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. More numerous snow showers develop at night.

Wednesday: An early snow shower or flurries in spots. Then clearing. Breezy. High temperatures around the 40 degree mark.

Gusts to 30-40 mph. Damaging wind possible for the Cape.

Thursday: A mix of sun and high clouds. High temperatures in the lower 40s to middle 40s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and milder with showers likely. High temperatures in the middle and upper 50s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy and mild with the chance for a light shower or two. High temperatures in the middle 50s.

Mild Start To the First Weekend Of Spring

The first weekend of spring will get off to a mild start and a cold finish. Saturday will start off mostly cloudy with the chance for a passing shower through midday.  Then some clearing will take place in the mid-late afternoon with temperatures soaring into the 50s.  Sunday will be about 15 to 20 degrees colder with partly to mostly sunny skies. Mid winter cold arrives Monday.

A monster coastal storm will be the focus of our attention Tuesday and Wednesday.  Is it a hit or a miss? This is a high stakes forecast.  This storm will have the ability to produce damaging wind and heavy rain/snow, wherever it tracks. After looking at the latest data, it seems a direct hit is becoming less likely as the models have shifted the storm farther east, offshore.  Is a jog in the track closer to the coast still possible? Yes.  It’s also still possible that the storm continues to trend out to sea and misses. But for now a glancing blow is the most likely scenario, sparing Connecticut the worst of this storm. Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend as we get a better handle on things.

Tonight: Clear start, increasing clouds. Low: 24-32

Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a shower through midday. Some clearing in the afternoon. Mild! High temperatures in the 50s!

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy and colder. High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Monday: Cold despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, chance for snow in the afternoon (depending on the track of a coastal storm). High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Wednesday: Cloudy, chance for snow. High temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

50s! But First....

Milder air is so close! 50s return Thursday just in time for the first day of spring. But winter is not giving up without a fight. Morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds Wednesday. While the daylight hours remain dry, showers will begin to develop around or just after sunset.  Precipitation could begin as a wintry mix for the northwest hills with a small coating of ice/snow to top off the last evening of winter. Warmth Thursday is short-lived. 30s return heading into early next week. As if winter cold wasn’t enough, some computer models show the possibility for a winter storm for the middle of next week!  Of course, it’s silly to worry about a storm 7 days in advance. But it’s a sign that winter isn’t ready to give up on us yet.

The Euro Ensembles for Wednesday. 50-60% of the ensembles show .25"+ of precip.
For an awesome description of what ensembles are and why we use them, click here.

Tonight: Clear, cool. Low: 18-25.

Tomorrow: Sunny start with increasing afternoon clouds. High temperature around 40 degrees. Showers developing around/after sunset. A wintry mix is possible for the northern hills with snow/sleet.

Thursday: Clouds break for sunshine, becoming mostly sunny and milder. High temperatures in the lower 50s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, pleasant. High temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Saturday: Chance for light showers, possibly mixed with a few snowflakes early in the day. High temperatures in the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday: Partly sunny, a bit cooler. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

50s Saturday

This will be the second Saturday in a row with temperatures in the 50s, what a treat!  A few showers are possible in the morning but they should be gone before the Hartford Saint Patrick’s Day parade.  The rest of the time is partly cloudy and milder.  Also similar to last weekend, Sunday looks cooler and breezy with high temperatures back in the 30s.  There is a chance for snow Sunday night into Monday.  But the latest trend is to push the storm farther south with light snow OR nothing at all. The operational runs of the ECMWF (European) and GFS model both show a miss right now.  Notice, I'm ignoring the NAM (not by mistake).  The ECMWF ensembles still show a slight chance for snow, especially in southern CT with 20% of the 50 ensemble members showing 1" of snow for the shoreline. Certainly nothing to get excited about.

The "European" computer model for Monday.

The GFS model for Monday

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, chance for a late shower. Low: 30s.

Tomorrow: An early shower, then becoming partly cloudy, breezy and milder. High temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, cooler and windy. Northwest wind with gusts up to 25 miles an hour. High temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

Monday: Chance for light snow or flurries, cold. High temperature in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a shower. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

Winter Is Coming...

Winter returns tonight as a storm tracks right over Connecticut. Rain will change over to snow as temperatures plummet after midnight. Some towns could pick up a fresh coating of snow.  Up to an inch or two is possible in northern Connecticut. Also watch for icy spots caused by a combination of wet roads and rapidly falling temperatures.

Tomorrow morning’s commute could be slick so you may want to allow yourself some extra time to get to work. A few lingering snow showers or flurries Thursday morning will give way to slow clearing. The whole day looks windy and cold with temperatures running 20-30 degrees below average for this time of year. The March rollercoaster ride continues looking ahead with milder air this weekend and a return to winter cold next week.

Tonight: Rain, changing over to snow late. Temperatures crash with a flash freeze possible. Low: 12-20.

Tomorrow: A few lingering morning snow showers or flurries. Icy spots for the commute. Slow clearing. Windy, cold. High: 18-24. Wind chills in the single digits to around zero.

Friday: Mostly sunny, not as cold. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for flurries in the morning. A mix of sun and clouds. Milder, high temperatures in the the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, a bit cooler. High temperatures around 40 degrees.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Watching a storm close by. There's still a chance it could trend farther north. High temperatures around 30 degrees.

From Spring To Winter In 2 Days

From THIS

To THIS!  

Spring fever was in full effect today! Bridgeport’s high temperature was the warmest in the state and only 3 degrees shy of a record 67 degrees set back in 1977. But don’t put away your winter jacket just yet. Winter will return in just 36 hours with brutal cold for March standards.

Ski resorts in northern New England will have 1’-2’ of fresh powder by Thursday morning!  The same storm will track over Connecticut tomorrow night. But Connecticut will remain on the mild side. Most of the morning will be dry Wednesday. I can’t rule out a shower or some drizzle in spots though. Steadier/heavier rain will develop in the afternoon and evening. You might even hear a rumble of thunder! Then as cold air rushes in on the backside of the storm, rain will change over to snow after midnight from northwest to southeast.  A coating to 2” of accumulation is possible with the higher end of that range in northwest Connecticut.  A bigger concern may be icy spots for the commute on Thursday morning as temps rapidly drop below freezing. We call that a flash freeze! Any wet roadways could turn icy. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some school delays on Thursday. While snow showers will wind down by mid morning, the rest of the day doesn’t look much better. Afternoon temperatures will only be in the teens and twenties and a gusty northwest wind.

But the unusual March cold doesn’t last long. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound on Friday with highs in the 30s. 40s return for the weekend, just in time for the Saint Patrick Day parades.

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 32-36.

Tomorrow: A shower in spots in the morning. More numerous showers develop in the afternoon with the heaviest late day and at night. High temperatures in the 40s. Temps crash overnight as rain changes to snow.

Thursday: Snow showers lingering into the early morning. Slick/icy spots for the commute. Some slow clearing. Windy. High temperatures in the middle 20s. Feels like the single digits.

Friday: Mostly sunny, not as cold. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for flurries in the morning. A mix of sun and clouds. Milder, high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, a bit cooler. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s. 

Spring Warmth & A Typical Spring Storm

Spring and winter collide in the forecast this week.  Spring weather is on deck first with temperatures approaching 50 degrees on Tuesday. This is a perfect temperature for slow melting of the snowpack without the threat of flooding. Then winter will come crashing back in as our next storm approaches.  Right now it looks like mainly rain with the storm taking a track right over Connecticut.

Wednesday morning will start off dry for the commute. Rain will develop during the day (perhaps a brief wintry mix in spots). Then as the storm pulls away overnight Wednesday, rain will change over to a brief period of snow heading into Thursday morning. A small accumulation is possible with a coating to an inch or two (maybe a bit more in the northwest Litchfield County). While I don’t anticipate any school cancelations on Wednesday, school delays are certainly possible on Thursday. If the storm tracks farther southeast, rain will change over to snow faster. But right now I feel moderate-high confidence in the forecast remaining as is.

Thursday is cold and windy! Snow showers will end late morning. But the rest of day will still feel very much like winter with temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the single digits for most of the day.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy. Low: 30s.

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, milder. Lots of melting. High temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Northwest wind 5 to 15 miles an hour.

Wednesday: Dry start to the morning. Rain developing (may start off as a brief light wintry mix in spots). High temperature around 40 degrees.

Thursday:  Snow showers lingering into the early morning. Slick/icy spots for the morning commute. Some slow clearing. Windy. High temperatures in the middle 20s.

Friday: Mostly sunny, not as cold. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Increasing clouds at night with the chance for flurries.

Saturday: Early morning flurries give way to a mix of sun and clouds. Milder, high temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.

Best chance for 6"+ in Central/Northern New England

United Way's Evening With The Stars

The Great White....meteorologist

Last night I co hosted an event for Southington’s United Way. The theme was my favorite…the movies! They had an actual prop of one of the sharks used in the movie Jaws! And I had the chance to co host with...a gargoyle named Gorgo.  You can’t make this stuff up! Puppeteer Bill Diamond used to work with the Muppets and also had a role in Fraggle Rock, Black Crystal and Labrynth.

Other than raising money for the United Way, volunteers were honored for their service to the community. See the article about the event for more details in the Record Journal. I was happy to have such a small part in a successful event.

Hanging out with Gorgo

Nice Weekend. 40s Saturday, Cooler, Breezy Sunday.

The first week of March has been historically cold for the northeast, running 10 to 15 degrees below average. There is no big change in the pattern for the next couple of weeks.  But we will see a few 40+ degree days in the mix from time to time. One of those days is Saturday. Temperatures will feel balmy compared to recent days with sunshine mixing with afternoon clouds. A cold front at night could bring a flurry in spots. Sunday is cooler and breezy with temperatures back in the 30s.

Tonight: Late clearing. Low: 16-26.

Tomorrow: Sunshine mixing in with clouds. Milder, pleasant. Hig: 43-46! Chance for a flurry in spots at night.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler. Northwest wind at 10 to 20 miles an hour. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Chance for snow showers overnight.

Monday: Chance for early morning snow showers. Then turning partly sunny. High temperatures in the lower 40s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, milder and pleasant. High temperatures in the middle to upper 40s.

Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Snow developing late day. High temperature near 40 degrees. Snow/mix possible Thursday depending on the evolution of a storm next week.

One More Cold Day! Warm Up Starts Friday.

Thursday will be the last bitterly cold day this week. The wind chill will start off between -10 and 0 in the morning with high temperatures failing to hit 30 degrees in many towns. But we rebound quickly on Friday, climbing up near 40 degrees.  If you’re hoping to melt some of the ice in your yard, Saturday is the pick of the week with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s! Cooler air arrives early next week with a few flurries or a snow shower Sunday and Monday.

Tonight: Early flurry or snow shower in eastern Connecticut. Low: 5-15.

Tomorrow: Sub zero wind chills in the early morning. Cold, despite plenty of sunshine. High temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as cold as recent days. High temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

Saturday: Sunshine mixing in with afternoon clouds. Milder, pleasant. High temperature in the middle to upper 40s. Chance for evening flurries.

Sunday: Chance for a few flurries in the morning. A mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the upper 30s.

Monday: Chance for a snow shower in the morning. Otherwise, decreasing clouds. High temperatures around 40 degrees.

Cold Continues

Mid winter cold remains through Thursday with temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Friday and Saturday feature a little thaw with 40s possible both days accompanied by plenty of sunshine. But the warm up doesn’t last into next week. While we contend with the cold, at least there are no big storms in sight. A few flurries or snow showers are possible Wednesday afternoon and again on Sunday.  Other than a light coating of snow in spots, that’s about it!

Fun fact (and a bit of good news), we gain 1 hour and 22 minutes of daylight in the month of March!  Longer days ahead and warmer days…eventually!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, not as cold. Low: 13-20.

Tomorrow: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance for a flurry or snow shower, mainly late day and at night. A coating is possible in spots. High temperatures in the lower 30s to middle 30s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, seasonably cool. High temperatures around 30 degrees.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as cold as recent days. High temperatures near average, around the 40 degree mark.

Saturday: Sunshine mixing in with afternoon clouds. Milder. High temperature in the lower to middle 40s.

Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy, chance for a few flurries. High temperatures in the upper 30s.

Record Challenging Cold

Arctic cold helped push the last storm south of New England, keeping most of the state dry.  But tonight into tomorrow morning we’ll pay the price with record challenging cold. The records being threatened stand at 2 degrees for Windsor Locks and 5 degrees in Bridgeport, both set in 1950.  It’s a close call!  Morning sunshine will mix in with afternoon clouds on Tuesday.  Some slight moderation is possible this week with temperatures climbing into the 40s by Friday into the weekend. But there is no extended warm up in sight.

Slow moderation. But that trend doesn't continue into next week.

Tonight: Clearing, cold.  Wind diminishing, becoming calm. Low: -3 to 7.

Tomorrow: A sunny and bitterly cold start. Increasing clouds. High temperatures in the middle to upper 20s.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Chance for an afternoon flurry or snow shower, mainly late day and at night. High temperatures in the lower 30s.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a snow shower or flurry. Not as cold. High temperatures in the middle to upper 30s.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny, not as cold as recent days. High temperatures near average, around the 40 degree mark.

Saturday: Sunshine mixing in with afternoon clouds. Milder. High temperature in the lower to middle 40s. Chance for snow showers or a period of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning.