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Thursday, March 29, 2012

Frost Tonight, Snow Saturday

Frost:
You send me pictures of your blooming bulbs and budding trees. They’re pretty. But tonight I worry for those early growers. Tonight skies will clear out and temperatures will drop close to or below the freezing point. Wait a minute…Why aren’t there frost advisories or freeze warnings? Because the National Weather Service only issues alerts during the growing season which begins on April 15th. Normally, that’s a pretty safe date. But this year’s early warmth has prompted plants to spring up earlier than usual. So if you want to protect those plants tonight, bring them inside or cover them with a light blanket.

Dry, Sunny Tomorrow:
The sun will be a welcome sight tomorrow. But don’t let the sunshine deceive you, temps will start in the upper 20s and 30s! Mid and high level clouds will increase in the afternoon as our next storm approaches.

Rain/Snow Saturday:
Low pressure moving through the Midwest will track over the Delmarva after midnight Friday bringing a mix of rain and snow. You may want to sleep in Saturday morning with the slushy mix. A small accumulation of an inch or two is possible. Saturday afternoon will calm down with a lingering shower or two. Any slush that does stick will melt quickly. And the recent warmth will help most of the snow melt when it hits the ground (no brainer…we were in the 80s last week).

I wish my confidence for the storm on Saturday was a little higher. But I don’t like the latest 18z NAM showing a colder, more robust solution with 2”-10” of snow. The NAM is the outlier. The Euro and GFS are in agreement with the forecast stated above. But it makes me nervous…especially because the NAM is supposed to be more accurate with better resolution than the other models within 48 hours.

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