1 AM update

Just a little tweaking to account for current trends and to keep things current. Waiting for the Euro to come in so I can go home and stress out there!! ;)

Well that escalated quickly...

A snow storm is heading this way and the worst will hit during the morning commute on Friday.

I know it seems impossible. But snow can and will stick to the ground if it comes down heavy enough, even after several days of near-record warmth.

This storm looked like it would barely brush us a couple of days ago. But the trend over the last 36 hours has been to bring the storm closer to the coast and the impact for us has changed in a big way.

Timing:

Impact:

-Snow covered roads for the commute along with poor visibility.
-School delays and closings are likely.
-Snow will be wet and heavy (tough to move).
-Some power outages are possible with wet heavy snow sticking to trees and powerlines.

-North winds could gust up to 30 mph, blowing snow.

Accumulations:

3”-6” range for most of the state with higher amounts possible in eastern/northeastern Connecticut. Lower amounts, 1”-3” in northwest Connecticut, including most of Litchfield County.

While we have high confidence about the impact of this storm, there is lower confidence on the actual accumulations. Typically when forecasting snow, we use a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means every 1” of precipitation produces 10” of snow. But that ratio will be lower during this storm. We’re also dealing with a warm ground. While that won’t prevent snow from accumulating, it can eat away at some of the snow that falls. Basically…more snow will fall than will actually accumulate. We feel confident that snow totals will be highest in eastern Connecticut with lower amounts in Litchfield County. The range you see does a good job at showing local variability depending on elevation and snow intensity and also accounts for a small shift in the storm track. We feel comfortable preparing you for the worst instead of you getting surprised with more than you expected. It looks like there will be an area of 6”+ in eastern Connecticut. Right now we think the best chance of that happening is in northeastern CT because of mixing issues in New London County. That being said, that bullseye may need to expand or contract depending on the temperature profile.

Weather Alerts:

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for northeastern Connecticut, in Windham County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of the state with the exception of Litchfield County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But the trend over the last 24 hours has been to bring the worst of the storm farther offshore. This would mean some snow, but nothing big here in Connecticut. Still, it’s a timeframe we need to keep our eye on as a lot can change between now and Tuesday.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rain showers develop tonight before mixing and changing over to snow after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Friday: Snow, some heavy for the AM drive. Snow ending 10 am - 2 pm from west to east. Breezy with developing sunshine. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, mild and breezy. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds late. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Tuesday: Cloudy with the chance for snow. Watching the track of a developing coastal storm. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Last Call For 50s!

It will be a mild start to the day Thursday and a warm finish, in the 50s one last day! A lingering shower is possible early, before 8 am. Otherwise, the rest of the day is partly cloudy and mild.

There is a rising chance for snow Thursday night into Friday morning. The same front bringing rain tonight will stall south of the area. As a little storm rides along it, some rain/snow will graze Cape Cod and the Islands.  Farther west, here in Connecticut, there is more uncertainty. Yesterday we were calling for flurries. Today the trend has been to push snow showers farther northwest. Either way it looks like the best chance of plowable snow would be in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the weather watch for early next week:

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But there are a lot of other scenarios in the range of possibilities as well. Still being 6 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come.

A lot of possible outcomes regarding snow next week. But it shows potential!
Image Source: Weatherbell Analytics

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Periods of rain, windy. 50s for most of the night. mid-upper 40s by daybreak.

Tomorrow: Chance for an early shower. Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s.

Monday: Becoming mostly cloudy, colder. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.

Warm & Windy Wednesday

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Low: 30s.

Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Low 50s.

Friday: Slight chance for early flurries, especially in eastern/southeastern Connecticut. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: Lower 40s

Forecast Discussion:

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cooling trend.

The morning commute looks dry with showers developing around midday. The bulk of the rain will hold off until the afternoon and evening with some heavier downpours possible for the ride home. Winds will slowly ramp up too, coming out of the south with gusts up to 35 miles an hour. While it will be windy and wet we’re not expecting damaging winds or flooding.  Rain will continue after the sun sets but temperatures will continue to rise through around midnight-2am when a cold front crosses. Ahead of the front, temperatures will soar into the 50s to around 60 degrees! Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

Cooler air will lag behind the storm. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 50s. Then by Friday, February returns with highs in the upper 30s. There is a slight chance for a few flurries early Friday morning, especially in eastern and southeastern Connecticut.

On the Weather Watch…Early next week

While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern does start to get more interesting heading into next week. The moisture laden southern jet stream will become active, lifting a disturbance towards the Mid-Atlantic region. At the same time the northern branch jet will dip south in the form of a trof. How these two ingredients interact will determine if we can get a storm here in New England. A coastal storm with snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. Since that is 6-7 days out, we have low confidence. It’s not time to worry yet. You can bet though we’ll be watching this threat in the days to come. 

Spring Fling

60s in February!? High temperatures Monday, February 1st were 20-25 degrees above average. Surprisingly, we didn’t break any records!  Temperatures won’t be quite as warm the next few days but will remain well above average.

The Groundhog is guaranteed to be confused Tuesday with blue skies and temperatures in the mid-upper 40s.  

Wednesday will mark the beginning of the end of this warm stretch of weather. An approaching cold front will bring a soaking rain followed by a cool-down. While the morning commute looks dry, showers will develop around midday. Rain will fall heavily at times with very mild temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees! A gusty southwest wind will pick up too. Also, don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder along the actual front Wednesday night.

The cooler air will lag behind the front a bit. Thursday remains mild with highs in the 40s. Then by Friday, a real February chill returns with highs in the upper 30s. Still, there’s no big arctic cold in sight.

Forecast Details:

Monday Night: Chance early sprinkle, slow clearing, cooler. Low: 25-35.

Tuesday: Sunny, remaining mild. High: 45-50.

Wednesday: Cloudy but dry start with rain developing midday, some heavy at times. Becoming windy with the chance for thunder. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, breezy, mild one last day. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Friday: Sunny, breezy, cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.

A whole lotta shaking going on

No it wasn't an earthquake. A sonic boom was felt in many locations across the tri-state area.  The cause? A military jet broke the sound barrier, flying 1,200 mph! Check out the full article here.

But how could people in Connecticut feel tremors from a sonic boom all the way off the coast of Southern New Jersey??

One explanation is a temperature inversion! Instead of sound spreading out in all directions, sometimes it can get trapped close to the ground. This same set up can also lead to poor air quality days, trapping ozone, dirt and pollen near the ground. It can also help radio and TV signals travel farther than usual (also called atmospheric ducting).

Pretty cool, huh? This graphic is an RF original. A masterpiece. I LOVE making graphics. It's my only outlet for using my artistic side these days.

Friday Flurries, February 50s

On Friday, there is a chance for a few flurries or light snow showers as a disturbance crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This has nothing to do with a big offshore storm that will miss Connecticut, staying out to sea. But it may end up being a close call. There are some indications that rain/snow showers could get as close as Cape Cod or even Rhode Island.

Saturday starts off cooler with highs in the 30s to around 40. By Sunday, the thermometer will approach 50 degrees and that’s just the start of what could turn out to be an impressive February thaw. Right now we have 50s in the forecast Sunday – Wednesday. The warmest day will be Wednesday when some towns could approach the 60 degree mark! But before you plan a “beach day,” keep in mind that Wednesday will be rather wet with lots of clouds, gusty winds, rain and even thunderstorms.

If the warmth doesn’t get rid of what’s left of the snow pack, the rain certainly will. Back behind this storm it’s cooler but not cold with highs in the 40s.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, not as cold.  Low: 25-30.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, breezy. Chance for a few flurries or a snow shower. High: Near 40.

Saturday: Sunny to partly cloudy. High: Upper 30s-Near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Monday: Cloudy and mild with the chance for late-day and evening showers. High: Low 50s.

Tuesday: Sunny and very mild for early February. High: Near 50.

Wednesday: Rain and possible thunder, warm. High: mid-upper 50s.

Drip, drip, drip: Melting Ahead

You'll notice a common theme in the days ahead. Thawing during the days and refreezing at nights. So keep an eye out for slick spots each morning this week. If the road/front step looks wet, assume it's icy.

Weather Headlines:

• Milder Tuesday, 40s, chance late-day/evening shower
• Dry, trending a bit cooler Wednesday - Thursday
• Watching an offshore storm Friday

More clouds fill the sky Tuesday as milder air returns. Temperatures will climb into the mid 40s. A shower is possible later in the day or at night as a cold front approaches. Showers will be hit or miss so not every town gets one.

Tuesday's cold front is pretty wimpy! The air following it on Wednesday will still be mild for January standards, near 40 degrees. I can't rule out a passing flurry in the far northwest hills.

Another storm will develop off the Carolinas later this week. I know what you're thinking...uh oh, not again! But this is a totally different set-up than Saturday's historic nor'easter. Right now the chance of that storm hitting us is 30% or less. That's a 70%+ chance it misses.

But while this coastal storm is stealing all the attention on social media, a sneaky disturbance moving through the Great Lakes has a slightly better chance at bringing us some light snow or snow showers.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Increasing clouds. Watch for icy spots. Low: 20-30.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for a shower or two, mainly late in the day. High: 40-45.

Wednesday: Becoming partly cloudy, remaining mild. High: High: 38-43.

Thursday: Sunny, a bit cooler than recent days. High: 35-40.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a storm lurks just offshore. Chance snow/mix if it trends closer to the coast. High: Near 40.

Sunny start to the week and some milder days ahead

Snow Totals from the Blizzard 2016

Wow, what a storm! While parts of northwest Connecticut saw little or no snow, others saw up to 14" in southern Connecticut, and that's not including the giant snow drifts.

Connecticut was spared the epic and historic 30"-40" snowfall to our south and west. Look at the map of final snow totals. This storm could have been so much worse had everything shifted another 25-50 miles north.

Weather Headlines:

• Quiet start to the week, sunny Monday, 30s
• Chance for freezing drizzle Tuesday morning, slick roads are possible. 
• Milder Tuesday, 40s, chance late-day/evening shower
• Watching an offshore storm Friday

Another offshore storm Friday? Don't get nervous or excited
yet. Most guidance suggests this stays offshore. But some
snow is still possible. It's bears waytch

The calm after the storm continues on Monday with blue skies and temperatures near average. There's  a slight chance for freezing drizzle Tuesday morning as milder air tries to move in. More clouds fill the sky Tuesday. Temperatures will climb into the 40s by afternoon with the chance for a few showers late-day or at night. The air will be too warm for anything but rain. But if the timing is pushed back any later, that could change.

Another storm will develop off the Carolinas later this week. Most of our guidance suggests the storm stays mainly offshore, but it bears watching. The European ensembles (probably our best gauge for forecasting 3+ days out) suggests some snow is possible.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy start, then clearing late. Low: 10-20.

Tomorrow: Sunny, quiet start to the week. High: 34-38.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for a shower or two, mainly late in the day. High: 40-45.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, remaining mild. High: High: 38-43.

Thursday: Sunny, a bit cooler than recent days. High: 35-40.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a rain or snow shower as a big storm lurks just offshore. High: Near 40.

Saturday Snow-LAST CALL (I Swear)

My last call before the first flakes fly! I bumped up the numbers, especially in Fairfield and New Haven Counties. I still feel strongly about the sharp gradient/cut-off in northern Connecticut. 

I had to bump the numbers after the 0z (late evening) computer model runs came in. It became impossible to ignore the bump north. 

Sometimes it is so hard to change your forecast. You feel loyal to it. You're afraid if you change it, the old one was right and the new one will be wrong and you should have just left it alone to begin with. But in the end, forecasts don't love you back. And as we always say, trend is your friend. EXCEPT in this case when the storm trends north and then south and then north and then south again...

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the shoreline with gusty winds combined with blowing and drifting snow leading to low visibility. Stay safe and enjoy, if you can!