A snow storm is heading this way and the worst will hit
during the morning commute on Friday.
I know it seems impossible. But snow can and will stick to
the ground if it comes down heavy enough, even after several days of
near-record warmth.
This storm looked like it would barely brush us a couple of
days ago. But the trend over the last 36 hours has been to bring the storm
closer to the coast and the impact for us has changed in a big way.
Impact:
-Snow covered roads for the commute along with poor
visibility.
-School delays and closings are likely.
-Snow will be wet and heavy (tough to move).
-Some power outages are possible with wet heavy snow sticking to trees and
powerlines.
-North winds could gust up to 30 mph, blowing snow.
3”-6” range for most of the state with higher amounts
possible in eastern/northeastern Connecticut. Lower amounts, 1”-3” in northwest
Connecticut, including most of Litchfield County.
While we have high confidence about the impact of this
storm, there is lower confidence on the actual accumulations. Typically when
forecasting snow, we use a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. That means every 1” of
precipitation produces 10” of snow. But that ratio will be lower during this
storm. We’re also dealing with a warm ground. While that won’t prevent snow
from accumulating, it can eat away at some of the snow that falls.
Basically…more snow will fall than will actually accumulate. We feel confident
that snow totals will be highest in eastern Connecticut with lower amounts in
Litchfield County. The range you see does a good job at showing local
variability depending on elevation and snow intensity and also accounts for a
small shift in the storm track. We feel comfortable preparing you for the worst
instead of you getting surprised with more than you expected. It looks like
there will be an area of 6”+ in eastern Connecticut. Right now we think the
best chance of that happening is in northeastern CT because of mixing issues in
New London County. That being said, that bullseye may need to expand or
contract depending on the temperature profile.
Weather Alerts:
A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for northeastern
Connecticut, in Windham County. The warning begins at 1 a.m. Friday and ends at
3 p.m. Friday.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the rest of the
state with the exception of Litchfield County. The warning begins at 1 a.m.
Friday and ends at 3 p.m. Friday.
On the weather watch for early next week:
While there is no arctic cold in sight, the weather pattern
does start to get more interesting heading into next week. A coastal storm with
snow and gusty winds is possible next Tuesday. But the trend over the last 24
hours has been to bring the worst of the storm farther offshore. This would
mean some snow, but nothing big here in Connecticut. Still, it’s a timeframe we
need to keep our eye on as a lot can change between now and Tuesday.
Forecast Details:
Tonight: Rain showers develop tonight before mixing and
changing over to snow after midnight. Low: 30-34.
Friday: Snow, some heavy for the AM drive. Snow ending 10 am
- 2 pm from west to east. Breezy with developing sunshine. High: Upper 30s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Upper 30s-Low 40s.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, mild and breezy. High: Lower 40s.
Monday: Partly sunny with increasing clouds late. High:
Upper 20s-Low 30s.
Tuesday: Cloudy with the chance for snow. Watching the track
of a developing coastal storm. High: Upper 20s-Low 30s.
