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Monday, February 28, 2011

Tuesday's Forecast

Sunshine returns today after a gloomy, soggy start to the week. A seasonably cool but dry air mass is moving in. With a big pressure difference in the atmosphere, this morning will be breezy. Winds will blow out of the northwest from 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Another front will come through tomorrow. Although we are not expecting any rain with the front, cold weather will follow for Thursday with temperatures in the 20s. The next chance for showers or rain is over the weekend.

9 on the Rach-O-Meter!

Friday, February 25, 2011

Calm Saturday, Snowy Sunday

We get a break from stormy weather Saturday as high pressure moves in. Skies will start off mostly sunny with some clouds building in as a weak storm approaches. Snow will arrive within a few hours of midnight tonight, lasting into Sunday morning before tapering off. This isn’t a big storm with 1”-3” of snow accumulation. The sun might pop out during the afternoon Sunday before our next storm arrives. Although there may be a little ice to start, Monday looks like another rain and wind event.


Rain Totals from the last storm:
Thompson: 2.02"
Bridgeport: 1.54"
North Granby: 1.53"
Groton: 1.37"

Check out snowfall totals in northern New England!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

1st Out Of 3 Storms Moving In

Rain will come down heavy at times on Friday. During the morning commute, there could be some slippery spots in the northern hills with a lingering wintry mix. But everyone will change over to plain rain. Temperatures will peak in the 40s to low 50s. With snow melt combined with 1”-2” of rain, poor drainage flooding and ponding water is possible. The heaviest rain will come down in the morning through late afternoon. Don’t be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder or see some lightning tomorrow when the front swings on through. If we experience some convection (thunderstorms), rainfall amounts could be even higher in spots! The storm changes back to snow temporarily Friday night before moving out. Some of the models show a coating -1.5” Friday night. With the milder air in place, I think that’s a little overdone. But there could be some slippery spots. A storm Sunday could bring a light snow accumulation with another rainstorm likely Monday.

This timelne below basically says the same thing in a different layout. It's a little more detailed. I had to write it for the Courant so I thought I would paste it in here anyway.

Storm Timeline & Summary:

AM Commute: During the morning commute there could be some slippery spots in the northern hills with a lingering wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Everywhere else (most of the state) plain rain will fall for the commute, creating a sloppy and wet ride or walk to work and school.

Afternoon: The heaviest rain will fall during the late morning through the late afternoon. With temperatures peaking in the 40s to low 50s, snow will start to melt, especially along the shoreline. With snow melt, and an additional 1”-2” of rain, poor drainage flooding and ponding on the roads is likely. Rainfall amounts could be higher in areas that experience a thunderstorm.

Evening: The storm will move out tonight after the evening commute, changing back to a wintry mix/snow briefly. The ground will still be warm so initially any snow should melt on contact with the road. But there could be some slippery spots with a light coating of snow. Winds will increase dramatically, gusting up to 50 mph in southern Connecticut. Winds that strong, combined with the wet ground could result in isolated power outages.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

3 Storms On The Way, Mostly Rain!

Three storms are on the way...
1) Thursday night-Friday
2) Saturday night-Sunday
3) Monday

2"-3" of rainfall is possible during that time frame. There could also be some melting of the snow and ice already on the ground. Poor drainage flooding, ponding of roads could be an issue. So now would be a good time to do some pre storm maintenance. Make sure the gutters around your home are clear and storm drains are free of ice/snow blockage. I do not anticipate any river flooding at this time (for Friday) but we'll have to revisit the possibility on Monday.

Forecast Discussion: After a cold but sunny start, clouds will increase during the afternoon on Thursday as high pressure moves offshore. Although the day will be dry, a storm will move in Thursday night bringing a mix of rain/snow/sleet. Although there could be some slippery spots, we are not expecting plowable snow. Any areas of mixed precipitation will change to rain on Friday, coming down heavy at times. Poor drainage flooding could be an issue. Precipitation will briefly change back to a wintry mix before ending Friday night.

Saturday is partly cloudy, cold and windy. Low to mid 30s.

Sunday could be the best chance we have at seeing an inch or two of accumulating snow.

Monday looks like wind driven rain with temperatures that could pop up into the low 50s! BIG melting day. I'll keep you posted.

Meanwhile, I am heading to a wedding in South Beach this weekend where temps will be near 80 degrees. WOO HOO! But I'll probably be nervous about the weather around here the entire time. I'm serious. I fly back early Monday afternoon...I hope there are no issues to cause flight delays (wind). I need to be on the air by 4 PM. EEEK! Cross your fingers for me.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Dry, Slight Warming Trend Through Thursday

Grab your sunglasses on your way out the door Wednesday with blue skies in the forecast. High pressure is sitting almost directly on top of the state protecting us from bad weather. Temperatures will be around average for this time of year(upper 30s to near 40 degrees). Then Thursday as the high moves offshore, southerly winds will cause temperatures and clouds to increase even more. Thursday night into Friday a storm threatens to bring a messy mix of rain, snow and/or ice. The mix could change over to rain on Friday depending on the storm’s track. There is another chance for snow on Sunday which will likely change to rain during the day. Monday's storm also looks mostly like rain right now. These are low confidence forecasts so I encourage you to follow us closely! Thanks!

Monday, February 21, 2011

Another 1"-3" & More On The Way?

This latest storm brought snow totals that ranged from 1"-3" for all of CT EXCEPT for southwestern Fairfield County where 4"-5" was common. NWS Map of Storm Totals.

Adding the latest snowfall to our running total. This season is the #5 snowiest on record! Records date back to 1905. We are only 3.4" away from the #2 spot. So I think we have that in the bag! BUT much more snow is needed to clench the #1 snowiest year, 115.2" set back in 1996-1997.


Looking forward:
Tuesday will be mostly sunny but chilly with high pressure funneling in cold air from Canada. Winds will blow out of the north 5-15 mph. The wind chill will start off near zero in the morning, recovering into the teens during the afternoon. Wednesday will remain sunny but the winds will slacken and temperatures will not be as cold. By Thursday, milder air (40s) will return with increasing clouds. Late Thursday night into Friday another storm could bring us rain/snow depending on the track. More rain/snow is possible late Sunday into Monday! We don't necessarily want a lot of rain either, because that could mean flooding for some areas.

Forecast From 4 P.M.
 

Friday, February 18, 2011

Winter Returns Saturday

 
The last time Hartford hit 63 degrees was on November 13th, 2010. Take a look at some of the high temperatures across the state!

Hartford: 63
Waterbury: 61
Danbury: 59
New London: 54
Windsor Locks: 58

No records were broken today. The record in Windsor Locks is 68 degrees. The record for Bridgeport is 60 degrees, both set back in 1981.

Get ready to go from spring back to winter reality. A powerful cold front will whisk away the warm air and replace it with cooler, windy conditions. Winds will howl out of the west on Saturday from 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Skies will be partly sunny with some flurries or a snow shower possible, mainly in northern Connecticut. Sunday will be sunny but breezy with temperatures in the 30s. Snow/mix is possible late Sunday after midnight into President’s Day with a coating to few inches of snow possible.

Whale Bowl forecast: Partly cloudy, windy and cold. Mid to upper 20s during the game with wind chills in the teens.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

To be honest with you...

I'm forecasting 60 degrees tomorrow inland. Low to mid 50s along the shore. In full sunshine...67 would be in the cards. I think morning clouds keep us lower than that. But if the clouds break earlier than expected...it could be warmer. If clouds never break, 60 will be out of reach. Tough temperature forecast. BUT either way, it's going to be warm tomorrow.

From Spring Back To Winter

High Temperatures Today (Thursday):

Waterbury: 59
Willimantic: 59
Hartford: 59
Bridgeport:52
New London: 52
Note: The high temperature posted for New Haven: 67 degrees has to be an error. No way it hit 67 degrees today.

Friday's Forecast:

If it was completely sunny tomorrow, temperatures could hit 70 degrees. BUT clouds will keep temperatures from reaching their full potential.

Friday will start off cloudy with patchy fog/drizzle. As the day progresses, clouds will break for partial sunshine. The amount of sun we see will determine temperatures. If sunshine breaks out early, temperatures will be warmer than yesterday, in the 60s. But if clouds stick around, most towns will stay in the 50s. Either way it will feel like spring with lots of melting. A cold front will swing through late in the day triggering a shower in spots. Then it will turn very windy and cooler Friday night into Saturday with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

SPRING FEVER!

Spring fever will be in full effect the next two days as warmer air moves in. Skies will remain partly sunny Thursday. Temperatures inland will top out in the low to mid 50s. Since the Long Island Sound is still in the 30s, any wind component off the water will keep shoreline temperatures a bit lower. Tomorrow will be even warmer with temperatures taking a run at 60 degrees in some towns. A shower is possible late-day/night as a strong front moves through. Cooler air returns this weekend.

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