Winter For The First Day Of Spring?

Winter's revenge?

Many of us have already put away the snow blower and snow boots, especially after last week’s record warmth. But winter might make a comeback, just in time for the first day of spring!

An arctic front Friday will bring a late-winter chill back to New England, helping to set the stage for a developing nor’easter.

The budding storm will be off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday night. The storm will rapidly intensify as it moves north.

I am confident a strong coastal storm will develop, but where it tracks is the million dollar question, and the track will determine the impact. A path close to the coast would mean rain and/or snow and high winds. A track too far east would be a slight blow with little or no impact. Then, there’s a sweet spot in the middle that could bring New England an impressive snow storm. It wouldn't be the first time Connecticut got plowable snow in March!

Two possible scenarios

While we can't give you specifics yet, it's becoming increasingly likely that Connecticut will feel some impact from the coastal storm.  ALL of our operational computer models are indicating at least some snow at this time. One of our most trusted sources for mid/long range forecasting is the European Ensembles (forgive me for getting technical). Right now 70% of the members show AT LEAST 1" of snow. That's a high percentage for an event 4+ days away.

When forecasting storms that are still several days away, it’s important to look at trends. Are the models trending west over time? Is the storm getting stronger or weaker? As of right now, we’re seeing a lot of big changes from run to run with very little consistency. That indicates a low-confidence forecast.

Bottom line: It’s too soon to get nervous or excited yet. But keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days as we get a better handle on the impact.

Sun, Showers, Storms & SNOW?

Remember the sun? After a couple of gray days, Wednesday’s sun will be a welcome sight in the sky! The day will get off to a murky start with low clouds and fog. But that moisture will burn away revealing some sun accompanied by a warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the 60s (50s for the shore). There is a chance for a late day or evening shower as a fast moving weather system flies by.

Another fast-moving disturbance will zip through Thursday too. While most of your Saint Patrick’s Day looks dry with partial sun, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible. Some of those storms could even be strong with gusty winds.

Colder (albeit seasonable) air returns Friday into the weekend. The question is, will that cool down be accompanied by storminess?

On The Weather Watch: We’re watching Late Sunday into Monday for a potential nor’easter. 5-6 days there's a lot we don't know. The storm could bring a cold rain and/or late-season snow. But there's also a chance it stays harmlessly out to sea. It would be "funny" if we got snow the first day of spring.

What are you rooting for? Team 'cold rain', 'snow' or 'miss'?

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 39-45.

Wednesday: Early fog burns off. Becoming partly sunny. Chance for evening showers.  High: 56-62.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Some could be strong with gusty winds.  High:  55-60.

Friday: Partly cloudy, chance rain/snow shower in spots. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Highs: Mid 40s.

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Chance for rain/snow developing late. High: Mid 40s.

Record Warmth Wednesday

This impressive early March warm-up is not over yet. Temperatures will soar into the 70s Wednesday, challenging records.

Early fog will break for lots of sunshine Wednesday allowing temperatures to skyrocket. While 70s are a good bet inland, the shoreline will be noticeably cooler. As the air blows over the Long Island Sound (water temp: 40s), the air cools temporarily. This “sea breeze” as it’s called, will keep the beaches in the 60s Wednesday.

But no matter where you are in the state Wednesday, records could break. The record for Bridgeport is only 60 degrees. The record for the Hartford area is 72.

Thursday is our bonus day. A cold front lurking nearby will be close enough to provide more clouds. But it looks to hold off just long enough to allow one final day near 70 before “cooler” air returns Friday.

While Friday – weekend will be technically cooler, temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year. Parade weekend weather looks dry and pleasant for now. Let’s cross our fingers and hope nothing changes between now and then. 

Early next week looks cooler and unsettled. But there is no arctic cold in sight heading through the final days of winter and into the start of spring.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 37-43.

Wednesday: Early fog. Mostly sunny, record-challenging warmth.  High: 62-68 shore 68-74 inland.

Thursday:  Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for showers late-day or at night. High: 65-70.

Friday: Chance for an early morning shower (mainly before daybreak) then becoming sunny. Not as warm as recent days. High: 55-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, mild. High: 57-63.

Sunday: Sunshine mixing with high clouds. Mild. Chance for showers at night. High: 57-60.

A Touch Of Winter

Winter made a comeback Thursday and to go along with that theme, a few flakes could fly through the air Friday too.

A developing coastal storm will miss Connecticut, staying well to the south.  As the low intensifies, the jet stream will rapidly pull the storm east/offshore. A few flurries are possible Friday, mainly in southern/southeast Connecticut. But it will not be enough to provide any accumulation. Southeastern New England areas like Cape Cod will get accumulating snow, closer to the storm's center of circulation. 

A weaker storm will slide far south of Connecticut Sunday bringing another chance for a touch of snow. Once again, the bulk of the storm looks to stay south with little/no impact other than some flurries.

After a few cold days with the chance for flurries, next week the pendulum will then swing the other way. Temperatures will soar into the 60s for 2-3 days. We may even get 70+ degree warmth on Wednesday. Spring fever will be in full effect.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 20-25.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few flurries. No accumulation is expected.   High: Mid 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: Low 40s.

Sunday: Chance for early flurries. Clouds break for sunshine. Low 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. This will be the start of an impressive warming trend. High: Low 50s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, warmer. High: Low 60s.

2 AM Thursday AM Update

Wind gusts have approached 60-70 mph in parts of the state early Thursday morning. As I write this 62,000+ people are in the dark across Connecticut with downed trees and powerlines. While the worst winds overnight are within thunderstorms, wind damage is possible at any time overnight. Storms will move out between 3-4 AM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 4 AM the latest.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds could gust over 60 mph.

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in February?

While snow and ice is no longer a concern, we’re not out of the woods! Now our focus shifts to scattered downpours, gusty thunderstorms and a wild warm-up with temperatures approaching 60 degrees tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southern Connecticut until 2 AM Thursday. The biggest concern with any thunderstorms that develop will be wind damage. 

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds will increase tonight out of the south from  20 to 30 mph with a few gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Those higher wind gusts are most likely within a heavier downpour or thunderstorm. If strong storms develop, gusts could reach 70 mph. Scattered power outages are possible.

Temperatures will sky-rocket tonight, approaching 60 degrees! The warmer air will help boost instability out ahead of tonight’s worst weather.  The heaviest rain and threat for strong storms will be between 11 PM – 3 AM. 

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Then after an active start to the week, the rest of the week will be very calm in comparison. It’s noticeably cooler Friday and Saturday, in the 30s. But the chill won’t last. 50s return early next week.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rainy and warm with areas of fog and the chance for a few embedded gusty thunderstorms. 55-65.

Thursday: Pre-dawn torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with the chance for an isolated shower. Daytime high: 48-53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Near 50.

Monday: Mild and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for an isolated shower in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Snow on the way out

Snow is changing over to sleet and rain now in parts of southern Connecticut. That mixing line will slowly move north. By midnight the snow will be done everywhere. But with areas of drizzle and temperatures near freezing, some inland areas could see an icy glaze with slick spots for a few hours overnight.

We don’t expect big problems for the Wednesday morning commute. Most of the state will be above freezing with patchy fog and drizzle. However, icy spots could linger into early Wednesday for the northwest hills.

Wednesday looks cloudy and cool to start with showers becoming more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night. While daytime highs will be in the 30s, temperatures will soar at night, approaching 60 degrees by pre-dawn Thursday. Torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms are possible before sunrise with winds up to 50 mph.  Scattered power outages are possible too.

Luckily, the worst ends before the morning commute on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for a lingering shower in spots.

Then after an active start to the week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Snow changes to rain, then tapers off. Drizzle and fog overnight. Areas of freezing drizzle inland. Low: 30-35.

Wednesday: Drizzle and fog for the morning commute. Some icy spots possible in the northwest hills. Periods of rain. Heaviest late and at night. Cool most of the day with rising temps late.  High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Near 50.

Here we snow again!

Snowy evening commute Tuesday

Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quiet. Then conditions head downhill with a parade of storms the next 48-hours. Get ready for big swings in temperature and precipitation types as we go from snow to ice to rain and even thunder!

Snow will develop in the afternoon. This may start off as a brief wintry mix for some along the shoreline until the air cools-down enough to support all snow. Snow will be falling everywhere for the evening commute. We’re not expecting much in the way of accumulation, a coating to 2”. But that’s certainly enough to slow you down out there.

After the commute, snow will taper off and transition over to a light wintry mix and then rain showers as milder air moves in. But the cold may remain stubborn in some towns in the northern half of the state (Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties). While at cloud level, it will be warm enough for drizzle, temperatures at the surface might be cold enough freeze anything that falls, forming an icy glaze. That could be an issue heading into the Wednesday morning commute.

After some icy spots to start on Wednesday, temperatures will rise and showers will become more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night as temperatures soar. 50s are expected in the wee hours of Thursday morning with gusty winds and a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will taper off throughout the day Thursday. But not until we collect 1”-2” of rain!

Then after an active start to the work-week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 20s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with snow/wintry mix developing in the afternoon. A snowy evening commute. A coating - 2" possible.  High: 35-40.

Wednesday: Icy spots inland in the morning with pockets of freezing drizzle. Periods of rain, heaviest late-day and at night. High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: 30’s.

Spring Weekend

A taste of spring returns this weekend with temperatures climbing into the 50s.  The leading edge of milder air will trigger a few rain or snow showers Friday night into early Saturday morning (before sunrise). A few slick spots are possible from 10 PM – 3 AM with temperatures around freezing. Then temperatures will slowly rise towards daybreak around 35-40 degrees.

Clouds will break for some sun on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Sunday will be a smidge “cooler”, near 50.

We’re keeping a close eye on Sunday night into Monday morning. A fast moving disturbance passing south of Connecticut could bring a period of mix/snow.  While not a guarantee yet, accumulating snow is possible for the morning commute. Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend for updates.

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. But saying there is a big range of possible solutions would be an understatement!! Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? A new trend in the computer models today has the storm breaking into two weaker pieces. One storm Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Bottom line: snow/ice/rain is possible with potentially messy travel Wednesday – Thursday. But a big snowstorm in unlikely.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Thickening clouds with the chance for passing rain and snow showers. Low: 30-37.

Saturday: Clouds break for some sun, becoming partly cloudy and mild. High: 50-55.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Increasing clouds late. High: Near 40.

Wednesday: Chance for snow/mix/rain. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Warmer Weekend But A Few Chances For Snow

Thursday was noticeably cooler than recent days. But the chill doesn’t stick around. A warm front
Friday night into early Saturday will bring the chance for a light rain or snow shower in spots. It’s possible a handful of towns could get a coating out of this. But nothing too impressive without a lot of moisture to work with. 

By this weekend, spring is back with temperatures near 50 degrees.

Another disturbance will bring the chance for rain/snow showers late Sunday night into early Monday. While this isn’t a big snow threat, it could still cause some issues for the Monday morning commute. Perhaps even accumulating snow.

Don't get nervous or cancel plans over this yet. But it's worth watching this weekend!

On the weather watch:

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. The whole east coast will need to monitor for potential impacts. That’s a lot of real estate! As of right now, odds favor some impact from this storm here in Connecticut. Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? It’s too early to say. BUT I can tell you that odds DO NOT favor a bit snow hit for us.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Clear, cold. Breezy start with winds diminishing towards daybreak. Low: 10-20.

Friday: Sunshine to start with increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for rain/snow showers at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. High: Near 40.