Cool But Mainly Dry Weekend

This weekend will be cool by April standards. But it could be a lot worse. A winter storm will just miss Connecticut, bringing accumulating snow to parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania Saturday. After some morning sun, clouds will take over by Saturday afternoon as the storm gets closer. There is a chance for a rain or snow shower in spots (especially in southern Connecticut). But I think most towns will stay dry. The sun will shine for the UConn Huskies parade and rally in Hartford on Sunday with temperatures in the mid-40s.

There is no BIG warm-up in sight. But at least temperatures will get closer to average heading into next week, along with some April Showers. Baby steps towards a return to spring weather!

Forecast Details: 

Tonight: Partly cloudy, quite cold. Low: 25-35.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, chance for a late day rain/snow shower. But it’s still too soon to say what impact (if any) from a nearby storm. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Near 50.

Tuesday: Mild start with rain and wind. Some clearing in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, brisk and cooler. High: 50s. Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 50s.

Cooler heading into the weekend

A lingering shower is possible tonight with areas of drizzle and fog developing. But the wettest and worst of Thursday's weather is over.

Friday will not be as mild (upper 40s-near 50) with a mix of sun and clouds. While most of the day will be dry, there is a chance for a passing shower or two (maybe even a snow shower in the NW hills).

This weekend turns even cooler with highs in the 40s (chilly by April standards). A developing ocean storm looks to stay mainly south of the area. The location and intensity of the low will help determine what (if any) effect it has on our weather. There is a chance it misses entirely. If the storm tracks a little closer/stronger rain/snow showers are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. There could even be a period of snow Saturday night with minor accumulation. Right now I’m leaning towards little or no impact at this time. But I still don’t feel confident enough to lock that in. So please keep an eye on the forecast over the next day or so.

There is no BIG warm-up in sight. But at least temperatures will get closer to average heading into next week. We’ll take what we can get!

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Steady rain ending. Leftover shower, patchy fog and drizzle developing. Low: 38-43.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds, chance for a shower or two. High: Upper 40s-Low 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, chance for a late day rain/snow shower. But it's still too soon to say what impact (if any) from a nearby storm. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Mid 40s.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Near 50.

Tuesday: Mild start with rain developing. Windy. High: 55-60.

Brief Warm-Up With Rain

Thursday will be noticeably milder but the warm-up comes with rain. Showers will become more numerous through the morning with heavier downpours and thunder possible in the afternoon/early evening as a cold front approaches. A quick ¾” to 1 ½” of rain is possible. While rivers and streams should be low enough to accept that rain, minor flooding is possible for poor drainage areas and low lying areas.

Thursday: Damp, wet, soaking rain, damp. pic.twitter.com/jWUVe96hAk

— Rachel Frank (@RachelFrank_CT) April 6, 2016

After that brief warm-up, a late winter chill returns for the weekend with highs in the 40s.
Going along with that wintry theme, a few snow showers are possible late Saturday or Saturday night with a developing ocean storm. For now it looks like the storm misses to our south but we’ll need to monitor it the next few days in case that changes.

Wait a minute. What is that??? We may have spotted spring in the misty distant future. Next Tuesday temperatures could climb into the 60s. However, if a cold front arrives earlier in the day it may ruin our chances for a warm-up. So, we’re sayin’ there’s a chance!

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Cloudy with showers developing late. Low: mid-upper 30s. Temps rising towards daybreak.

Thursday: Scattered AM showers becoming more numerous in the afternoon. Chance for a thunderstorm late day/early evening. High: Mid-upper 50s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, chance for a passing shower. High: Upper 40s-Low 50s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, breezy and cool. Chance for a late day or evening snow shower. High: Low- mid 40s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, chilly for April 10th. High: Low 40s.

This Spring Storm Has Me On An Emotional Rollercoaster

This job can be incredibly humbling. Predicting what Mother Nature wants to do is never easy. Sometimes all the equipment and technology in the world can’t help us make sense of a complex set-up.  This is one of those situations.

There are several distinct disturbances that are all undergoing their own transformations while at the same time interacting with each other. Each computer model tries to determine the evolution with a different set of equations. But the outcomes for this storm have been wildly different.

Here’s what we’re thinking right now…

TIMING

The timing has been pushed back somewhat. Instead of snow breaking out in the afternoon as originally forecast, snow will hold off until between 8pm – midnight. Snow is expected to remain light for western and central Connecticut. But moderate snowfall is possible for eastern and southeastern Connecticut. The worst is over before 8 AM with lingering flurries into 10 AM Monday morning. Any snow that ends up accumulating should melt fairly quickly due to the warm ground and higher sun angle this time of year.

IMPACT

Roads could be slippery in spots overnight Sunday into Monday morning. We don’t anticipate any school closures at this time. But school delays are possible as DOT crews catch up, mainly in eastern CT.

SNOW TOTALS

Even though this is an early spring storm, the bulk of the snow will fall after sunset and overnight which will allow the snow to stick more readily than during the daytime.

We are expecting all snow and no mixing with this event. The highest amounts will be in southeastern Connecticut, closer to the storm’s location. The lowest amounts can be found in western Connecticut.  

Look at the left side for now! Haha.

It's On! Spring Snow But Not A Big Hit

Our official forecast is the first solution but there's a chance the storm moves even farther offshore. Only a smaller chance at more snow than this

We haven’t dodged the threat of snow this weekend. But it looks like we will avoid getting a monster nor’easter Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

While we were sleeping Thursday night the computer models made a huge shift east.  Sunday’s coastal storm will develop and strengthen too far offshore to bring a blockbuster spring storm. 

Timing:

All day Saturday and Sunday morning look dry.  Snow will develop in the afternoon, starting off light initially and then picking up in intensity later in the day and Sunday night. The roads will probably remain wet for a majority of the day.  Spring storms are tricky like that because of the higher sun angle and warm ground. It takes heavy snow to stick to the roads at this time of year.

Heavier snow is possible at night, continuing into the early morning Monday. As of right now I think snow will be over before 8 AM (maybe even earlier than that). Snow should be able to quickly melt away for the reasons I mentioned above.

How Much:

There is still a big spread in the computer models even right now as I type this (Friday at 7 PM).  But all outcomes point to more snow in the eastern part of the state. One scenario points to a light to moderate snowfall. The other has the storm strengthening even later and farther offshore resulting much less statewide including little to no snow in western Connecticut. I’m leaning towards the first scenario but either are possible at this point.

WHY the differences? There are several moving parts that the models are trying to “figure out”. Each one has a different idea of what those parts will do over time, resulting in different outcomes.

Precipitation Type:

There’s a slight chance some sleet could mix in for areas southeast of Hartford. But I think that would be an exception. I’m expecting wet snow with this storm, not the fluffy dry stuff.

Impact:

While winds will pick up during the storm, I do not expect damaging winds in this storm.  While there could be a few pockets of power outages due to the wet nature of the snow, I also do not see this as being a major concern right now.  Obviously, roads could get slippery though (that happens any time it snows), especially Sunday night into early Monday morning.

Bottom Line:

This is NOT a biggie! But remember, just last week many of us thought winter was over for good with record warmth several days in a row. This is a stark reminder that it can and will snow at times through early spring! Please check back in for updates over the weekend as we continue to put together pieces of the forecasting puzzle.

Spring Snow, A Good Bet!

The final days of winter have felt more like spring. But the first day of spring will feel more like winter. Today we have more confidence in telling you to mentally prepare for snow Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Accumulating or plowable snow is a good bet at this point accompanied by strong gusty winds. A big snow storm is also within the realm of possibilities.

So now for the million dollar question…how much snow? If the storm tracks over/near a sweet spot south of Nantucket (AKA the benchmark) we'll get a big snowstorm. If the storm comes too close to the coast, we could change over to heavy sleet and/or rain! That would cut into snowfall totals but still produce a mess. Right now the least likely scenario is the storm missing and heading out to sea.

When will we know more?

One piece of energy that will play a major role in this storm’s development is still in Canada and has a long distance to travel. What that disturbance does over the next 24-48 hours will be vital to nailing down a forecast.

What trends are we noticing today?

Over the last 24 hours the trend has been to bring the track of the storm farther west. This is the reason we are saying an out to sea solution is least likely. All of our computer models are calling for snow to varying degrees. The question is…has that western trend stopped or will it continue? Too far west and we’ll pull in some warmer air with a changeover to sleet/rain (as the Canadian model is currently showing). Also on the topic of trends, the European computer model has remained fairly consistent in showing a bit hit for us here in New England (and all snow). In the past when the Euro does that, it’s usually onto something.

Spring forecasting challenges

Forecasting late winter/early spring storms comes with a unique set of challenges.  The ground is warmer.  There’s also a higher sun angle at this time of year. These factors can sometimes limit how much snow sticks to the ground (especially paved surfaces) during the daytime. However, all bets are off if it snows heavily enough. Also, once the sun sets, it’s game on.

Another challenge this time of year is the lack of truly arctic air. That can lower snow-to-liquid ratios (think heavier wetter snow instead of the fluffy dry stuff). Hey, at least we don’t have leaves on the trees yet!

Winter For The First Day Of Spring?

Winter's revenge?

Many of us have already put away the snow blower and snow boots, especially after last week’s record warmth. But winter might make a comeback, just in time for the first day of spring!

An arctic front Friday will bring a late-winter chill back to New England, helping to set the stage for a developing nor’easter.

The budding storm will be off the coast of the Carolinas Saturday night. The storm will rapidly intensify as it moves north.

I am confident a strong coastal storm will develop, but where it tracks is the million dollar question, and the track will determine the impact. A path close to the coast would mean rain and/or snow and high winds. A track too far east would be a slight blow with little or no impact. Then, there’s a sweet spot in the middle that could bring New England an impressive snow storm. It wouldn't be the first time Connecticut got plowable snow in March!

Two possible scenarios

While we can't give you specifics yet, it's becoming increasingly likely that Connecticut will feel some impact from the coastal storm.  ALL of our operational computer models are indicating at least some snow at this time. One of our most trusted sources for mid/long range forecasting is the European Ensembles (forgive me for getting technical). Right now 70% of the members show AT LEAST 1" of snow. That's a high percentage for an event 4+ days away.

When forecasting storms that are still several days away, it’s important to look at trends. Are the models trending west over time? Is the storm getting stronger or weaker? As of right now, we’re seeing a lot of big changes from run to run with very little consistency. That indicates a low-confidence forecast.

Bottom line: It’s too soon to get nervous or excited yet. But keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days as we get a better handle on the impact.

Sun, Showers, Storms & SNOW?

Remember the sun? After a couple of gray days, Wednesday’s sun will be a welcome sight in the sky! The day will get off to a murky start with low clouds and fog. But that moisture will burn away revealing some sun accompanied by a warm-up. Temperatures will climb into the 60s (50s for the shore). There is a chance for a late day or evening shower as a fast moving weather system flies by.

Another fast-moving disturbance will zip through Thursday too. While most of your Saint Patrick’s Day looks dry with partial sun, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible. Some of those storms could even be strong with gusty winds.

Colder (albeit seasonable) air returns Friday into the weekend. The question is, will that cool down be accompanied by storminess?

On The Weather Watch: We’re watching Late Sunday into Monday for a potential nor’easter. 5-6 days there's a lot we don't know. The storm could bring a cold rain and/or late-season snow. But there's also a chance it stays harmlessly out to sea. It would be "funny" if we got snow the first day of spring.

What are you rooting for? Team 'cold rain', 'snow' or 'miss'?

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 39-45.

Wednesday: Early fog burns off. Becoming partly sunny. Chance for evening showers.  High: 56-62.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, chance for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Some could be strong with gusty winds.  High:  55-60.

Friday: Partly cloudy, chance rain/snow shower in spots. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Highs: Mid 40s.

Sunday: Increasing clouds. Chance for rain/snow developing late. High: Mid 40s.

Record Warmth Wednesday

This impressive early March warm-up is not over yet. Temperatures will soar into the 70s Wednesday, challenging records.

Early fog will break for lots of sunshine Wednesday allowing temperatures to skyrocket. While 70s are a good bet inland, the shoreline will be noticeably cooler. As the air blows over the Long Island Sound (water temp: 40s), the air cools temporarily. This “sea breeze” as it’s called, will keep the beaches in the 60s Wednesday.

But no matter where you are in the state Wednesday, records could break. The record for Bridgeport is only 60 degrees. The record for the Hartford area is 72.

Thursday is our bonus day. A cold front lurking nearby will be close enough to provide more clouds. But it looks to hold off just long enough to allow one final day near 70 before “cooler” air returns Friday.

While Friday – weekend will be technically cooler, temperatures will still be well above average for this time of year. Parade weekend weather looks dry and pleasant for now. Let’s cross our fingers and hope nothing changes between now and then. 

Early next week looks cooler and unsettled. But there is no arctic cold in sight heading through the final days of winter and into the start of spring.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, patchy fog. Low: 37-43.

Wednesday: Early fog. Mostly sunny, record-challenging warmth.  High: 62-68 shore 68-74 inland.

Thursday:  Mostly cloudy, mild. Chance for showers late-day or at night. High: 65-70.

Friday: Chance for an early morning shower (mainly before daybreak) then becoming sunny. Not as warm as recent days. High: 55-60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, mild. High: 57-63.

Sunday: Sunshine mixing with high clouds. Mild. Chance for showers at night. High: 57-60.

A Touch Of Winter

Winter made a comeback Thursday and to go along with that theme, a few flakes could fly through the air Friday too.

A developing coastal storm will miss Connecticut, staying well to the south.  As the low intensifies, the jet stream will rapidly pull the storm east/offshore. A few flurries are possible Friday, mainly in southern/southeast Connecticut. But it will not be enough to provide any accumulation. Southeastern New England areas like Cape Cod will get accumulating snow, closer to the storm's center of circulation. 

A weaker storm will slide far south of Connecticut Sunday bringing another chance for a touch of snow. Once again, the bulk of the storm looks to stay south with little/no impact other than some flurries.

After a few cold days with the chance for flurries, next week the pendulum will then swing the other way. Temperatures will soar into the 60s for 2-3 days. We may even get 70+ degree warmth on Wednesday. Spring fever will be in full effect.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Low: 20-25.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with the chance for a few flurries. No accumulation is expected.   High: Mid 30s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High: Low 40s.

Sunday: Chance for early flurries. Clouds break for sunshine. Low 40s.

Monday: Mostly sunny. This will be the start of an impressive warming trend. High: Low 50s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, warmer. High: Low 60s.

2 AM Thursday AM Update

Wind gusts have approached 60-70 mph in parts of the state early Thursday morning. As I write this 62,000+ people are in the dark across Connecticut with downed trees and powerlines. While the worst winds overnight are within thunderstorms, wind damage is possible at any time overnight. Storms will move out between 3-4 AM.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect through 4 AM the latest.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds could gust over 60 mph.

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in February?

While snow and ice is no longer a concern, we’re not out of the woods! Now our focus shifts to scattered downpours, gusty thunderstorms and a wild warm-up with temperatures approaching 60 degrees tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southern Connecticut until 2 AM Thursday. The biggest concern with any thunderstorms that develop will be wind damage. 

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Wednesday night into 7 AM Thursday morning. Winds will increase tonight out of the south from  20 to 30 mph with a few gusts between 40 and 50 mph. Those higher wind gusts are most likely within a heavier downpour or thunderstorm. If strong storms develop, gusts could reach 70 mph. Scattered power outages are possible.

Temperatures will sky-rocket tonight, approaching 60 degrees! The warmer air will help boost instability out ahead of tonight’s worst weather.  The heaviest rain and threat for strong storms will be between 11 PM – 3 AM. 

Rain ends before daybreak on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for an isolated shower.

Then after an active start to the week, the rest of the week will be very calm in comparison. It’s noticeably cooler Friday and Saturday, in the 30s. But the chill won’t last. 50s return early next week.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Rainy and warm with areas of fog and the chance for a few embedded gusty thunderstorms. 55-65.

Thursday: Pre-dawn torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, breezy and mild with the chance for an isolated shower. Daytime high: 48-53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy and cooler. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, milder. High: Near 50.

Monday: Mild and breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for an isolated shower in the afternoon. High: Low-mid 50s.

Snow on the way out

Snow is changing over to sleet and rain now in parts of southern Connecticut. That mixing line will slowly move north. By midnight the snow will be done everywhere. But with areas of drizzle and temperatures near freezing, some inland areas could see an icy glaze with slick spots for a few hours overnight.

We don’t expect big problems for the Wednesday morning commute. Most of the state will be above freezing with patchy fog and drizzle. However, icy spots could linger into early Wednesday for the northwest hills.

Wednesday looks cloudy and cool to start with showers becoming more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night. While daytime highs will be in the 30s, temperatures will soar at night, approaching 60 degrees by pre-dawn Thursday. Torrential rain and gusty thunderstorms are possible before sunrise with winds up to 50 mph.  Scattered power outages are possible too.

Luckily, the worst ends before the morning commute on Thursday. The rest of the day will be breezy and mild with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for a lingering shower in spots.

Then after an active start to the week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Snow changes to rain, then tapers off. Drizzle and fog overnight. Areas of freezing drizzle inland. Low: 30-35.

Wednesday: Drizzle and fog for the morning commute. Some icy spots possible in the northwest hills. Periods of rain. Heaviest late and at night. Cool most of the day with rising temps late.  High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: Upper 30s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonable.  High: Near 40.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, mild. High: Near 50.

Here we snow again!

Snowy evening commute Tuesday

Tonight and tomorrow morning will be quiet. Then conditions head downhill with a parade of storms the next 48-hours. Get ready for big swings in temperature and precipitation types as we go from snow to ice to rain and even thunder!

Snow will develop in the afternoon. This may start off as a brief wintry mix for some along the shoreline until the air cools-down enough to support all snow. Snow will be falling everywhere for the evening commute. We’re not expecting much in the way of accumulation, a coating to 2”. But that’s certainly enough to slow you down out there.

After the commute, snow will taper off and transition over to a light wintry mix and then rain showers as milder air moves in. But the cold may remain stubborn in some towns in the northern half of the state (Litchfield, Hartford, Tolland and Windham counties). While at cloud level, it will be warm enough for drizzle, temperatures at the surface might be cold enough freeze anything that falls, forming an icy glaze. That could be an issue heading into the Wednesday morning commute.

After some icy spots to start on Wednesday, temperatures will rise and showers will become more numerous as the day progresses. Steadier and heavier rain will develop late-day and at night as temperatures soar. 50s are expected in the wee hours of Thursday morning with gusty winds and a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will taper off throughout the day Thursday. But not until we collect 1”-2” of rain!

Then after an active start to the work-week, the weather calms down Friday into the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly clear. Low: 20s.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds with snow/wintry mix developing in the afternoon. A snowy evening commute. A coating - 2" possible.  High: 35-40.

Wednesday: Icy spots inland in the morning with pockets of freezing drizzle. Periods of rain, heaviest late-day and at night. High: 38-45. Temperatures rising into the 50s overnight.

Thursday: Heavy rain and wind in the morning, tapering off in the afternoon. High: 50’s, falling in the 40’s.

Friday: Partly sunny, blustery and cooler. High: 30’s.

Spring Weekend

A taste of spring returns this weekend with temperatures climbing into the 50s.  The leading edge of milder air will trigger a few rain or snow showers Friday night into early Saturday morning (before sunrise). A few slick spots are possible from 10 PM – 3 AM with temperatures around freezing. Then temperatures will slowly rise towards daybreak around 35-40 degrees.

Clouds will break for some sun on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Sunday will be a smidge “cooler”, near 50.

We’re keeping a close eye on Sunday night into Monday morning. A fast moving disturbance passing south of Connecticut could bring a period of mix/snow.  While not a guarantee yet, accumulating snow is possible for the morning commute. Keep an eye on the forecast over the weekend for updates.

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. But saying there is a big range of possible solutions would be an understatement!! Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? A new trend in the computer models today has the storm breaking into two weaker pieces. One storm Wednesday followed by another Thursday. Bottom line: snow/ice/rain is possible with potentially messy travel Wednesday – Thursday. But a big snowstorm in unlikely.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Thickening clouds with the chance for passing rain and snow showers. Low: 30-37.

Saturday: Clouds break for some sun, becoming partly cloudy and mild. High: 50-55.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. Increasing clouds late. High: Near 40.

Wednesday: Chance for snow/mix/rain. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Warmer Weekend But A Few Chances For Snow

Thursday was noticeably cooler than recent days. But the chill doesn’t stick around. A warm front
Friday night into early Saturday will bring the chance for a light rain or snow shower in spots. It’s possible a handful of towns could get a coating out of this. But nothing too impressive without a lot of moisture to work with. 

By this weekend, spring is back with temperatures near 50 degrees.

Another disturbance will bring the chance for rain/snow showers late Sunday night into early Monday. While this isn’t a big snow threat, it could still cause some issues for the Monday morning commute. Perhaps even accumulating snow.

Don't get nervous or cancel plans over this yet. But it's worth watching this weekend!

On the weather watch:

Wednesday is the next chance for a bigger storm. The whole east coast will need to monitor for potential impacts. That’s a lot of real estate! As of right now, odds favor some impact from this storm here in Connecticut. Is it a wintry mix/rain if the storm tracks close to the coast? Or will it be snow with a track staying offshore? It’s too early to say. BUT I can tell you that odds DO NOT favor a bit snow hit for us.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Clear, cold. Breezy start with winds diminishing towards daybreak. Low: 10-20.

Friday: Sunshine to start with increasing afternoon clouds. Chance for rain/snow showers at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Sunday: Mild with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance for a rain/snow shower at night. High: Near 50.

Monday: Chance for an early rain/snow shower. Otherwise, partly cloudy, mild. High: Mid-upper 40s.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, cooler. High: Near 40.

Cold/White To Warm/Wet

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until early Tuesday morning. It's hard to believe we'll go from sub-zero temperatures to 50s and heavy rain in the span of 36 hours!

Snow has filled in and is having no trouble sticking to the ground because of the recent cold. Around 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate before switching over to ice and rain. This changeover will happen from south to north from 8 PM - midnight. Ice will hang out longer and could accumulate on the roads and powerlines for the Connecticut River Valley. This will lead to slippery/icy conditions for some late night drivers and even into the Tuesday morning commute.

The morning drive on Tuesday will be foggy and drizzly. Not much will be falling from the sky. But roads might still be icy, especially for northern valley locations around Hartford, north towards the Massachusetts border. School delays are possible for a handful of towns until that stubborn cold can be scoured out.

This graphic highlights the area we're most concerned about ice for Tuesday morning.
It could be much colder in the northern valley than surrounding areas.

Showers will become more numerous in the afternoon, especially later in the day as temperatures soar into the 50s. Rain will come down heavy at times with the chance for a few rumbles of thunder. Even with lots of melting, river flooding should not be an issue. But poor drainage flooding and puddles are likely during the evening commute.

No more sub-zero temperatures. We're back to another milder pattern with near to above average temperatures for the next week or so.

Tonight: Snow becoming steadier. 1"-3" possible and then a change from snow to ice and then rain. Icing lingers longer for northern CT, especially in the northern valley locations. Low: 25-30. By Tuesday AM commute: 25-45. BIG range in temps.

Tuesday: Cloudy, drizzle and foggy in the morning. Icy spots linger early in far northern CT.  Steady/heavy rain developing in the afternoon. Some heavy at times. High: 50s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High: 40-45.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Friday: Becoming cloudy. Chance for rain/snow showers late or at night. High: Mid-upper 30s.

Saturday: Chance for a rain or snow shower early. Otherwise, partly cloudy and milder. High: Upper 40s-Near 50.

Quick Shot Of Cold

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy

of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. 

High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.

Bitterly Cold Valentine's Day Weekend

There is one last chance for flurries or a snow shower Friday night into Saturday morning, courtesy of an arctic front. Most of the state will stay dry. A few flakes…no big deal but the cold that follows will be. This is the coldest air since last February. But this deep freeze will not last as long. The worst is over by Monday afternoon.

The high temperature Saturday is misleading because it will occur in the morning. Temperatures will crash through the rest of the day as winds pick up, gusting over 35 mph at times. This will send wind chills plummeting below zero through the afternoon.

The worst cold will be Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows between -10 and 0 and wind chills as low as -30 to -20. Records will be challenged on Valentine’s Day morning and in the afternoon. Some towns may fail to make it out of the single digits.

We’re still on the weather watch for Monday night into Tuesday. With the cold en route, you might be surprised that we’re thinking this storm will be more wet than white. Right now it looks like snow is possible Monday night before changing over to rain Tuesday as temperatures soar through the 40s. A lot can change between now and then though. So please check back for updates throughout the weekend.

Forecast Details:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance for an isolated snow shower. Low: 9-15.

Tomorrow: Chance for an isolated morning snow shower, otherwise partly cloudy, windy and bitterly cold. Highs will occur early with free-falling temps through the afternoon. High: Mid-upper 10s.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy and extremely cold. Morning wind chills start between -30 to -20. High: 8-15.

Monday: Increasing clouds. Chance for snow developing at night. High: Upper 20s-low 30s.

Tuesday: A wintry mix likely changing to rain as temperatures soar back into the 40s.

Wednesday: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s.